NRL | Round 8

alphr.com.au

NZL
Warriors
VS
NEW
Knights
APOLLO PROJECTS STADIUM, CHRISTCHURCH • FRIDAY 25 APR, 6:05 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 12 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 51. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend — Warriors have a 50% win rate under this referee. Warriors's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 7.7 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38 — within 5 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

60%WarriorsFavourite

Warriors

60%

Knights

40%

AI Match Overview

Warriors hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Warriors carry a 115-point ELO rating advantage (1493 vs 1378). Recent form favours Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Knights. The margin model predicts Warriors by 7.7 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warriors to Win @1.45

Winner ✓

Edge

-11.6%

Line / Spread

Warriors -9.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-11.6%

Total Points

Over 42.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.1%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warriors
WWWWL
22.0
Knights
WLLLL
10.0

Avg Conceded

21.2

Warriors

22.4

Knights

Avg Margin

0.8

Warriors

-12.4

Knights

Run Metres

1749

Warriors

1611

Knights

Line Breaks

3.4

Warriors

3.6

Knights

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Warriors
Wyatt Raymond40 games since 2024

Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

NZL
50%3W 3L
NEW
25%1W 3L

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 3 of 6 games (50%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Knights's 1 from 4 (25%). That's a 25‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.5 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Warriors an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 4 games for Knights — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

50.5 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Warriors lead 4-1
Mar 2026NZL 38 - 12 NEW
Jul 2025NZL 20 - 15 NEW
May 2024NZL 8 - 14 NEW
Mar 2024NZL 20 - 12 NEW
Oct 2023NZL 40 - 10 NEW
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NZL
1493Overall1378
NEW
ELO difference: +115 in favour of Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1116Forwards1069
Best: 1317NZL +46Best: 1276
900Backs1087
Best: 1004NEW +186Best: 1177
1029Halves1127
Best: 1029NEW +98Best: 1127
1037Hooker1189
NEW +151

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NZL
Stat
NEW
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
22.0pts
Avg Score
10.0pts
21.2pts
Avg Conceded
22.4pts
0.8pts
Avg Margin
-12.4pts
1749.0m
Run Metres
1611.2m
3.4
Line Breaks
3.6
345.6
Tackles
394.6
9.8
Errors
15.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Knights
4
Halves Control9.0%
Knights
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Warriors
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Warriors
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

60%

Warriors predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +7.7

2/3 match predictions correct
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