# Warriors v Knights — NRL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 26 – 12 Knights

_Warriors march past Knights._

Half time: 16 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 60% / Knights 40% · Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch · Fri, 25 Apr, 06:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Adam Pompey (8' 1st), Jackson Ford (29'), Jackson Ford (35'), Wayde Egan (55'), Adam Pompey (71' 1st) · Knights: James Schiller (50' Tipped ⚡), Brodie Jones (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 60% | Won |
| Knights | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 26–12 Knights in NRL Round 8 at Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two players walked in the first four minutes, Marata Niukore for the Warriors in the 1st, Leo Thompson for the Knights in the 4th, and for a stretch it looked like the sin bins might cancel each other out and leave the game even. They didn't. By the time both men were back on, the Warriors had banked 16 unanswered points, and the game was already decided in everything but the scoreboard's final digits.

Adam Pompey got it rolling in the 8th minute, then Jackson Ford crossed twice in the space of seven minutes either side of the half-hour mark, 28' and 35', to make it 14-0. Warriors led 16-0 at the break. The Knights didn't get on the board until James Schiller's try in the 49th minute, and by then they were chasing a lead that had already done the damage.

Final score: Warriors 26, Knights 12. Wayde Egan and a second Pompey try either side of Brodie Jones's late four-pointer for the Knights rounded out the scoring, but nothing after half-time threatened to turn it back.

The stat sheet backs up what the clock showed. Warriors ran for 1,909 metres to the Knights's 1,684, and made 657 post-contact metres, the kind of number that comes from repeatedly getting past the first defender. Seven line breaks to three tells the same story from a different angle. The Knights missed 32 tackles to the Warriors's 25, and their defence, ranked strongest by hooker at 1189 against the Warriors's 1037 coming in, didn't show up when it mattered.

Where the Warriors won it wasn't just execution, it was discipline with the ball. Nine errors against the Knights's 15, an 81% completion rate against 72%, that's the difference between a side that keeps hold of possession long enough to find the gaps and one that keeps handing it back. Warriors held 52% of the ball too, which in a game this lopsided on completion rate is as much a symptom as a cause.

The form line pointed this way before kick-off. Warriors arrived with four wins from their last five and an average margin of plus 0.8, the Knights with one win and minus 12.4. Warriors's forward pack rated higher (1116 to 1069), which showed up in the yardage, even though the Knights held the edge in backs, halves and hooker on paper. On the day, go-forward mattered more than the spine.

Alphr's model had Warriors favourites at 60%, tipped them to win by 7.7, and picked a combined total of 43. The actual margin was 14 and the total finished on 38, both close enough to call it a reasonable read, even if the Warriors did more of the heavy lifting than the number suggested. Warriors covered the 9.5-point line comfortably in the end. Two players missing large chunks of the opening stanza didn't slow either side down much, but only one of them made it count.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 16 | 10 | 26 |
| Knights | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 72% |
| **1,909** | Run metres | 1,684 |
| **657** | Post-contact metres | 595 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **32** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| **13** | Offloads | 10 |
| **89.3%** | Effective tackle % | 89.2% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 32 |
| **9** | Errors | 15 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 664 | Kick metres | **665** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 7.7 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. The model went 3/16 on this match. Warriors covered the 9.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 12 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Warriors have a 70% win rate under this referee. Warriors's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Sin Bin — Marata Niukore (Warriors) — 0-0 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 4' Sin Bin — Leo Thompson (Knights) — 0-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 8' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 28' Try — Jackson Ford (Warriors) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 35' Try — Jackson Ford (Warriors) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 49' Try — James Schiller (Knights) — 16-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 55' Try — Wayde Egan (Warriors) — 20-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 71' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 24-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 76' Try — Brodie Jones (Knights) — 26-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.45 (edge -11.6%) — model probability 60.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 8 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 60%, but Knights stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 115 ELO points clear, 1493 to 1378. Form leans Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Knights.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Warriors by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Warriors have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 12-10 in 2026 Round 29.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 4th against Knights 14th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 7 · Knights 3 |
| Last meeting | Knights 12-10 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 4th · Knights 14th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Knights 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 7W–3L | 70% |
| Knights | 3W–7L | 30% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 7 of 10 games (70%), significantly stronger than Knights's 3 from 10 (30%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 10.0pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| 0.8pts | Avg Margin | -12.4pts |
| 1749.0m | Run Metres | 1611.2m |
| 3.4 | Line Breaks | 3.6 |
| 345.6 | Tackles | 394.6 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 15.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 4W–1L | 22.0 |
| Knights | 1W–4L | 10.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Warriors | 10 – 12 | Knights |
| 2026 | R26 | Warriors | 46 – 32 | Knights |
| 2026 | R3 | Knights | 12 – 38 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R20 | Knights | 15 – 20 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R9 | Knights | 14 – 8 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 9th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Metcalf, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 13th-ranked left edge attack (0.83 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 12th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Best, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.83/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th) | 0.83/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 9th) | 0.5/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 3 | 3 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 209m/g | 198m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.9% | 87.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 14 | 8 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 641m/g | 744m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.2/g | 25.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.5% | 79.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 5 | 1 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 531m/g | 491m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.9% | 89.8% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.44) +0%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.44) +0% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.11) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Apollo Projects Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Taine Tuaupiki | WG | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 3 | Rocco Berry | CE | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Adam Pompey | WG | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/9g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 8' 71' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Jackson Ford | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 29' 35' |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | PR | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.10 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Bunty Afoa | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Laban | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | James Schiller | WG | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/20g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/5g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 3 in 6g | 8/10g (1·3·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.90 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | HK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyrone Thompson | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Brodie Jones | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 77' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1493 · Knights 1378 · ELO difference: 115 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1116 (best 1317) | 1069 (best 1276) | Warriors +46 |
| Backs | 900 (best 1004) | 1087 (best 1177) | Knights +186 |
| Halves | 1029 (best 1029) | 1127 (best 1127) | Knights +98 |
| Hooker | 1037 | 1189 | Knights +151 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Knights |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Warriors predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)