Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 7.7 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 12 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Warriors have a 63% win rate under this referee. Warriors's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
60%
Knights
40%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Warriors carry a 115-point ELO rating advantage (1493 vs 1378). Recent form favours Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Knights. The margin model predicts Warriors by 7.7 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.45
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.6%
Line / Spread
Warriors -9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.6%
Total Points
Over 42.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | W W W W L | 22.0 |
Knights | W L L L L | 10.0 |
Avg Conceded
21.2
Warriors
22.4
Knights
Avg Margin
0.8
Warriors
-12.4
Knights
Run Metres
1749
Warriors
1611
Knights
Line Breaks
3.4
Warriors
3.6
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours WarriorsWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 5 of 8 games (63%), significantly stronger than Knights's 2 from 7 (29%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Knights).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Warriors get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Knights's -1.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Warriors predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +7.7
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