AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Storm's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend — Storm have a 73% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 70% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Storm by 10.0 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 40 — within 2 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Storm
70%
Rabbitohs
30%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 224-point ELO rating advantage (1647 vs 1423). Recent form favours Storm with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Storm by 10.0 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.17
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.8%
Line / Spread
Storm -16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.8%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | WWWLL | 30.0 |
Rabbitohs | WWLLL | 15.2 |
Avg Conceded
23.6
Storm
23.0
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
6.4
Storm
-7.8
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1570
Storm
1482
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
5.4
Storm
3.4
Rabbitohs
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Peter Gough officiates, Storm have won 11 of 15 games (73%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 9 from 19 (47%). That's a 26‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.2 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Storm predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +10.0
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