Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 70% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Storm by 10.0 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 40, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Storm's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Storm have a 72% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
70%
Rabbitohs
30%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 224-point ELO rating advantage (1647 vs 1423). Recent form favours Storm with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Storm by 10.0 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.17
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.8%
Line / Spread
Storm -16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.8%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W W W L L | 30.0 |
Rabbitohs | W W L L L | 15.2 |
Avg Conceded
23.6
Storm
23.0
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
6.4
Storm
-7.8
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1570
Storm
1482
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
5.4
Storm
3.4
Rabbitohs
Referee Indicator
Favours StormPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Storm have won 13 of 18 games (72%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 9 from 20 (45%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Storm predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +10.0
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