# Storm v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 24 – 16 Rabbitohs

_Storm thunder past Rabbitohs._

Half time: 10 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 70% / Rabbitohs 30% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Fri, 25 Apr, 08:10 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Ryan Papenhuyzen (13' 1st Tipped 🎯), Xavier Coates (37' Tipped ⚡), Eliesa Katoa (43' Tipped ⚡), Tyran Wishart (65') · Rabbitohs: Jack Wighton (16'), Bayleigh Bentley-Hape (32'), Jack Wighton (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 70% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.0 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Storm 24–16 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 8 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten minutes either side of the hour turned this one. Storm led 14-10 at the 42nd minute mark, then Tyran Wishart crossed in the 65th to push it to 22-10, and from there the Rabbitohs were chasing more than they could find. Final score: Storm 24, Rabbitohs 16.

It didn't look like a game that would get away from anyone at the break. Locked up 10-10 at half-time, both sides had traded scores all first half. Ryan Papenhuyzen opened the account in the 12th minute, Jack Wighton hit back three minutes later, and Bayleigh Bentley-Hape put the Rabbitohs in front in the 31st. Xavier Coates dragged Storm level right on the stroke of half-time. Nothing in it.

Then Eliesa Katoa scored two minutes into the second half, and Storm never gave that lead back. Latrell Mitchell's sin bin in the 49th didn't help the Rabbitohs' cause, and even Papenhuyzen going to the bin himself in the 71st couldn't stop Storm putting it out of reach. Wighton's second try in the 76th was too little, too late.

The stat sheet explains why Storm could afford both those sin bins and still win comfortably. Storm ran for 1,887 metres to the Rabbitohs' 1,382, and turned that into 669 post-contact metres against 483. Seven line breaks to three, 48 tackle breaks to 27. That's a side that kept generating go-forward when it counted, not one hanging on. The 1156-to-852 gap in the backs rating pre-match lines up neatly with what showed up on the field.

Where the Rabbitohs won, they won clearly. They completed at 83% to Storm's 79%, coughed the ball up just 11 times to Storm's 14, and controlled the boot, kicking for 671 metres against Storm's 483. Discipline with the ball simply didn't translate into points, because their defence couldn't hold up at the other end. Missing 48 tackles to Storm's 27 undoes a lot of that good ball control.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10 | 14 | 24 |
| Rabbitohs | 10 | 6 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 79% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| **1,887** | Run metres | 1,382 |
| **669** | Post-contact metres | 483 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **48** | Tackle breaks | 27 |
| 8 | Offloads | **9** |
| **88.0%** | Effective tackle % | 85.7% |
| **27** | Missed tackles | 48 |
| 14 | Errors | **11** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 483 | Kick metres | **671** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 70% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Storm by 10.0 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 40, within 2 points. The model went 7/16 on this match. Storm covered the 16.5-point line. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Storm's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Storm have a 72% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 12' Try — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 15' Try — Jack Wighton (Rabbitohs) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 31' Try — Bayleigh Bentley-Hape (Rabbitohs) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 37' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 10-10 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 42' Try — Eliesa Katoa (Storm) — 14-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 49' Sin Bin — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 14-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 65' Try — Tyran Wishart (Storm) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 71' Sin Bin — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 22-10 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 76' Try — Jack Wighton (Rabbitohs) — 24-14 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.17 (edge -13.8%) — model probability 70.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -16.5 @ $1.91 (edge -13.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 10 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 70% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 224 ELO points clear, 1647 to 1423. Form leans Storm's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Rabbitohs.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Storm by 10.0, with the two sides combining for about 42. Storm to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 28-26 in 2026 Round 21.

Rabbitohs are 3-9 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Storm 3, Rabbitohs 3.

On the ladder it's Storm 2nd against Rabbitohs 8th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 6 · Rabbitohs 4 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 28-26 |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm at home | 11-4 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 2nd · Rabbitohs 8th |
| Finals odds | Storm 100% · Rabbitohs 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 13W–5L | 72% |
| Rabbitohs | 9W–11L | 45% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Storm have won 13 of 18 games (72%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 9 from 20 (45%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Rabbitohs get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Storm's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 30.0pts | Avg Score | 15.2pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 23.0pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Margin | -7.8pts |
| 1570.0m | Run Metres | 1482.0m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 3.4 |
| 313.0 | Tackles | 349.8 |
| 13.8 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 3W–2L | 30.0 |
| Rabbitohs | 2W–3L | 15.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Rabbitohs | 28 – 26 | Storm |
| 2026 | R8 | Storm | 6 – 48 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R16 | Rabbitohs | 24 – 25 | Storm |
| 2024 | R23 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 28 | Storm |
| 2024 | R8 | Storm | 54 – 20 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.67 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 8th there (1.57 conceded/game). Key man: Papenhuyzen, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the middle: NRL's 10th-ranked middle attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 7th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Gray, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.83/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.57/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 7th) | 1.43/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.57/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.83/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.86/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 3 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 2.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 217m/g | 166m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 86.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 16 | 11 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 676m/g | 648m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.3/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.2% | 76.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 0 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 516m/g | 445m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.5/g | 7.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 88.3% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.42/g (lg 0.26) +62% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19% · Wingers 1.44/g (lg 1.26) +14%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.3/g (lg 1.26) +3% · Centres 0.67/g (lg 0.67) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.33/g (lg 0.44) -25%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 6 in 6g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·2·1·1·1·0·1) | 8/6g | 32/38g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 13' |
| 2 | Kane Bradley | Replacement | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 14% | — | — |
| 3 | Grant Anderson | CE | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·1·0) | 1/4g | 5/16g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 16/35g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 6 in 6g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2·1) | 4/7g | 34/30g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/16g | 33/91g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 1 in 5g | 8/10g (1·3·0·3·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 26/62g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 6/37g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 3/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 8/25g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 3/37g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/31g | 26% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/24g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Chan | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Lazarus Vaalepu | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Latrell Mitchell | FB | 0 in 3g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 2/6g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Bayleigh Bentley-Hape | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 3 | Jack Wighton | CE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/21g | 1/10g | 20% | — | 🏉 16' 77' |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 1/5g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Isaiah Tass | WG | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Sullivan | HB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Peter Mamouzelos | HK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Keaon Koloamatangi | 2R | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/13g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Jai Arrow | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jye Gray | 5/8 | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Siliva Havili | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Tallis Duncan | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1647 · Rabbitohs 1423 · ELO difference: 224 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1112 (best 1251) | 1042 (best 1223) | Storm +70 |
| Backs | 1156 (best 1189) | 852 (best 1019) | Storm +304 |
| Halves | 930 (best 930) | 1001 (best 1001) | Rabbitohs +71 |
| Hooker | 790 | 1076 | Rabbitohs +286 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Storm |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Storm predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)