# Roosters v Dragons — NRL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 46 – 18 Dragons

_Roosters crow over Dragons._

Half time: 20 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 60% / Dragons 40% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 25 Apr, 04:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Sandon Smith (3' 1st), Mark Nawaqanitawase (16' Tipped ⚡), Sandon Smith (35' 1st), Blake Steep (49'), James Tedesco (55'), James Tedesco (76'), Hugo Savala (79') · Dragons: Sione Finau (7'), Kyle Flanagan (52' Tipped ⚡), Tyrell Sloan (73' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 60% | Won |
| Dragons | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Roosters 46–18 Dragons in NRL Round 8 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Roosters led from the second minute and never gave it back. Sandon Smith crossed inside two minutes, Sione Finau hit back for the Dragons soon after, and that was as close as St George Illawarra would get. By half-time it was 20-6, and the second half was just the Roosters turning a comfortable lead into a rout.

The sin bin on Smith at the 44th minute looked like an opening for the Dragons to claw back into it. Instead, Roosters scored four minutes later through Blake Steep and kept scoring regardless of who was on the field. Kyle Flanagan and Tyrell Sloan both crossed for the Dragons in the second half, but every reply was matched and then some, James Tedesco doubling up at 55 and 76 minutes to put it out of reach.

The gap between the two packs told the story before a ball was kicked. Dragons went in rated the stronger forward unit, 1132 to 999, and it showed early with a spell of parity. But once Roosters got hold of the ball, 55% of it, they made it count: 1,960 run metres to 1,431, and 547 post-contact metres to 394. That's not a forward pack getting beaten up front, that's a side finding space and finishing it, backed by ten line breaks to the Dragons' four.

The Dragons were actually the tidier side with ball in hand, completing at 73% and coughing up only 11 errors to the Roosters' 13. They also won the effective tackle count, 89% to 86.7%, and made fewer missed tackles, 27 to 23. On paper that reads like a side in control. On the scoreboard it reads 46-18, which says field position and finishing beat completion rate on this occasion.

Discipline mattered too. Roosters gave away just 3 penalties to the Dragons' 6, and every extra set the Dragons handed over was a set the Roosters didn't need twice.

Individually, Smith's double either side of half-time set the tone, and Tedesco's late double turned a handy lead into a demolition. For the Dragons, Finau, Flanagan and Sloan all got their names on the sheet, but three tries were never going to be enough against six.

Form lines coming in had the Dragons the healthier side, three wins from five versus one for the Roosters, and better going forward on the numbers too, averaging 1,779.6 run metres and 6.2 line breaks a game to the Roosters' 1,629.6 and 4.8. None of that showed up on the day. Roosters simply played above their recent trend and the Dragons well below theirs.

Alphr's model had Roosters as 60% favourites and got the winner right, but the margin was never going to land on 0.9 points once this one got going. A predicted total of 42 turned into 64, and a projected two-point squeaker turned into a 28-point beatdown. The model went 5 from 16 for the round, and whatever else it missed, backing the Roosters at even a slim head start was the one call that held up.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 20 | 26 | 46 |
| Dragons | 6 | 12 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| **1,960** | Run metres | 1,431 |
| **547** | Post-contact metres | 394 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **27** | Tackle breaks | 23 |
| 9 | Offloads | **10** |
| 86.7% | Effective tackle % | **89.0%** |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 27 |
| 13 | Errors | **11** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **443** | Kick metres | 428 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 64 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 42. Roosters led 20–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 5/16 on this match. Roosters covered the 1.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 17 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47. Roosters's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Roosters have a 50% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Sandon Smith (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 7' Try — Sione Finau (Dragons) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 16' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 35' Try — Sandon Smith (Roosters) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 44' Sin Bin — Sandon Smith (Roosters) — 18-6 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 49' Try — Blake Steep (Roosters) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 52' Try — Kyle Flanagan (Dragons) — 28-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 55' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 32-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 73' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 36-16 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 76' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 40-18 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 78' Try — Hugo Savala (Roosters) — 44-18 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.90 (edge +5.2%) — model probability 59.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.7%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 1 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 60%, but Dragons stay live at 40%. The ratings say otherwise: Dragons sit 39 ELO points clear, 1467 to 1428, so the model is backing Roosters against the ratings gap. Form leans Dragons' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Roosters.

On paper Dragons shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The model still sides with Roosters, which says Backline Quality and Referee Tendency carry the most weight. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 62-16 in 2026 Round 8.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Roosters 16th against Dragons 7th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 8 · Dragons 2 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 62-16 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters at home | 6-6 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 16th · Dragons 7th |
| Finals odds | Roosters 100% · Dragons 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 8W–8L | 50% |
| Dragons | 3W–12L | 20% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Roosters have won 8 of 16 games (50%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 3 from 15 (20%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 14.0pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| -10.0pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 1629.6m | Run Metres | 1779.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 6.2 |
| 378.0 | Tackles | 366.4 |
| 14.2 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 1W–4L | 14.0 |
| Dragons | 3W–2L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Dragons | 16 – 62 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R19 | Dragons | 24 – 31 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R18 | Roosters | 42 – 12 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R8 | Dragons | 18 – 60 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R12 | Dragons | 24 – 22 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 9th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 7th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Tupou, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 17th there (2.29 conceded/game). Key man: Liddle, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.29/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.67/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 7 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 172m/g | 169m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 22 | 17 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2.5/g |
| Run Metres | 672m/g | 790m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.6/g | 15.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 4.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.5% | 81.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 520m/g | 500m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — 2nd Rows 0.67/g (lg 0.45) +49% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.26) +42% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.17) +29%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.26) +42% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 0 in 7g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 14/21g | 20/41g | 36% | — | 🏉 55' 76' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 11/17g | 63/91g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 3 in 3g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 2 in 6g | 3/7g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/14g | 16% | — | 🏉 3' 35' |
| 7 | Hugo Savala | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 8 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 5/36g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/18g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/14g | 7/23g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 7/37g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 10% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 17 | Egan Butcher | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/13g | 12% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·2·2·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/13g | 2/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 6 in 5g | 9/10g (1·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·2·2) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 7/13g | 5/8g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Sione Finau | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.10 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/21g | 1/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/19g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 1/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 1/3g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.50 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Emre Guler | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1467 vs 1428), but the market favours Roosters (@1.90). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1428 · Dragons 1467 · ELO difference: 39 in favour of Dragons

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 999 (best 1251) | 1132 (best 1255) | Dragons +133 |
| Backs | 1089 (best 1148) | 995 (best 1127) | Roosters +94 |
| Halves | 1037 (best 1037) | 1193 (best 1193) | Dragons +155 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1200 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Roosters predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)