Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 64 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 42. Roosters led 20–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 2/3 on this match. The Draw margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 18 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Roosters's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Roosters have a 57% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
60%
Dragons
40%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 40%. Dragons are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control, but Roosters counter with Backline Quality and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Dragons carry a 39-point ELO rating advantage (1467 vs 1428). Recent form favours Dragons with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Roosters.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.2%
Line / Spread
Roosters -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.2%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W L L L L | 14.0 |
Dragons | W W W L L | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Roosters
18.0
Dragons
Avg Margin
-10.0
Roosters
5.6
Dragons
Run Metres
1630
Roosters
1780
Dragons
Line Breaks
4.8
Roosters
6.2
Dragons
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Roosters have won 8 of 14 games (57%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 2 from 13 (15%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1467 vs 1428), but the market favours Roosters (@1.90).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Roosters predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +0.9
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