Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 6.1 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. The game's 68 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 47. Raiders trailed 10–28 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 40–28. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 24 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Raiders's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Raiders have a 46% win rate under this referee. Raiders's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
61%
Dolphins
39%
AI Match Overview
Raiders hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Raiders ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Raiders carry a 20-point ELO rating advantage (1530 vs 1509). The margin model predicts Raiders by 6.1 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.56
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.5%
Line / Spread
Raiders -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.5%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | W W W L L | 27.2 |
Dolphins | W W W L L | 27.6 |
Avg Conceded
24.4
Raiders
18.8
Dolphins
Avg Margin
2.8
Raiders
8.8
Dolphins
Run Metres
1596
Raiders
1699
Dolphins
Line Breaks
4.6
Raiders
4.4
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours RaidersAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Raiders hold a 8-point edge: 24W–28L (46%) vs Dolphins's 3W–5L (38%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Raiders predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +6.1
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