# Raiders v Dolphins — NRL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 40 – 28 Dolphins

_Raiders roar back to pillage Dolphins from 18 down._

Half time: 10 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 61% / Dolphins 39% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sun, 27 Apr, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Savelio Tamale (9' 1st), Kaeo Weekes (31'), Zac Hosking (50'), Ethan Strange (61'), Matty Nicholson (65' Tipped ⚡), Sebastian Kris (72' Tipped ⚡), Jamal Fogarty (78') · Dolphins: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (14' Tipped ⚡), Herbie Farnworth (20' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Saifiti (27'), Jamayne Isaako (35'), Jake Averillo (39' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 61% | Won |
| Dolphins | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.1 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 40–28 Dolphins in NRL Round 8 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-four missed tackles. That's what the Dolphins finished with, nearly double the Raiders' 25, and it's the number that explains how a side leading 28-10 at half-time walked out of GIO Stadium having lost 40-28.

The first half belonged to Canberra's visitors in every way that mattered on the scoreboard. Kodi Nikorima's early sin bin didn't stop the Dolphins from scoring four tries before the break, through Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Herbie Farnworth, Daniel Saifiti and Jamayne Isaako, with Jake Averillo squeezing one in right on the stroke of half-time to make it 28-10. Savelio Tamale had opened the scoring for the Raiders back in the ninth minute, and Kaeo Weekes added a second, but by half-time Canberra looked like also-rans in their own building.

Then the second half arrived and the Dolphins simply stopped tackling. Zac Hosking crossed in the 49th minute, Ethan Strange in the 60th, Matty Nicholson in the 65th, and by the time Sebastian Kris scored in the 71st the Raiders had the lead for the first time since the opening try. Jamal Fogarty's try in the 78th minute put the finishing touch on a 30-point second-half haul built entirely off the back of a defence that couldn't get bodies in the right spot.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye would have seen. Raiders broke the line eight times to three and racked up 44 tackle breaks to the Dolphins' 25, numbers that only make sense alongside that missed-tackle count. Twelve offloads to six meant the ball stayed alive in traffic, and 586 post-contact metres tells you Canberra's forwards were dragging defenders backwards all night. Completion rate mattered too, 87% for the Raiders against just 72% for the Dolphins, with five errors to ten. When one side's cleaning up its own mess and the other's handing back cheap ball, the arm-wrestle tips one way.

Pre-match, the model had Raiders as 6.1-point favourites off ratings of 1530 to 1509, backing a halves edge of 1331 to 1161 that looked significant on paper. It called the winner right at 61% probability, but nobody had 22 extra points pencilled in, with the match landing on 68 against a predicted 47. Nor did anyone see the Dolphins building a 28-10 buffer before the tap ran dry. Alphr went 7 from 16 on this one, and the Raiders comfortably covered the 4.5-point line in the end, just not in the order anybody expected.

For the Dolphins, the first half was everything their form suggested it could be, five tries, sharp finishing through Tabuai-Fidow, Farnworth, Saifiti, Isaako and Averillo, and a lead that should have been comfortable. But recent form had them conceding 18.8 points a game on average, and 40 shipped here is a different animal entirely. Missing 44 tackles against a Canberra pack that had shown 1197 in forward strength to their 1085 wasn't going to hold for eighty minutes, and it didn't.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 10 | 30 | 40 |
| Dolphins | 28 | 0 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **87%** | Completion rate | 72% |
| **1,782** | Run metres | 1,649 |
| **586** | Post-contact metres | 517 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| **12** | Offloads | 6 |
| **90.5%** | Effective tackle % | 86.5% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| **5** | Errors | 10 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **456** | Kick metres | 400 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 6.1 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. The game's 68 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 47. Raiders trailed 10–28 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 40–28. The model went 7/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 25 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Raiders's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Raiders have a 46% win rate under this referee. Raiders's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Sin Bin — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 0-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 9' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 13' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 19' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 4-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 26' Try — Daniel Saifiti (Dolphins) — 4-16 · win-prob swing -14 pts
- 30' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 8-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 34' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 10-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 39' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 10-28 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 49' Try — Zac Hosking (Raiders) — 14-28 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 60' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 20-28 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 65' Try — Matty Nicholson (Raiders) — 26-28 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 71' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 32-28 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 78' Try — Jamal Fogarty (Raiders) — 36-28 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.56 (edge -5.5%) — model probability 61.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 6 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 61%, but Dolphins stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 20 ELO points clear, 1530 to 1509.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Raiders by 6.1, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 3 wins apiece from the last 6.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 3rd against Dolphins 10th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Raiders 3 · Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 30-22 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 3rd · Dolphins 10th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 100% · Dolphins 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 25W–29L | 46% |
| Dolphins | 3W–5L | 38% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Raiders hold a 8-point edge: 25W–29L (46%) vs Dolphins's 3W–5L (38%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Raiders get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Dolphins's -1.5.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 27.6pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| 2.8pts | Avg Margin | 8.8pts |
| 1596.4m | Run Metres | 1699.2m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 347.4 | Tackles | 353.0 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 3W–2L | 27.2 |
| Dolphins | 3W–2L | 27.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Raiders | 22 – 30 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R27 | Dolphins | 62 – 24 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R13 | Dolphins | 25 – 26 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R9 | Raiders | 31 – 30 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R2 | Dolphins | 20 – 14 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.43 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 10th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.14 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 4th there (1.14 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.43/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 17th (weak)) | 0.43/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.14/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.14/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.14/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.14/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 5 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 146m/g | 187m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 88% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 15 | 13 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 675m/g | 764m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.9/g | 19.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.6% | 85% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 4 | 4 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 584m/g | 487m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.4/g | 4.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.21) +38% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.67) +36%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.16) +56% · Centres 0.93/g (lg 0.67) +39% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.26) +38%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/14g | 20% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 3 in 7g | 3/8g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 38% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 14/40g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 18/42g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 4 in 6g | 8/10g (0·2·1·1·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 11/22g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 15% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/28g | 4% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/36g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/47g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 10/84g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 7 in 7g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·2·2) | 0/2g | 21/52g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 70% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | 2R | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (2·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Zac Hosking | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 13% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 28/123g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/22g | 4% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·3·0) | 4/4g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 42% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 0/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 1/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' |
| 5 | Jack Bostock | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 41% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 2/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Daniel Saifiti | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/4g | 14% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Tom Gilbert | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Mark Nicholls | LK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Ray Stone | HK | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/6g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1530 · Dolphins 1509 · ELO difference: 20 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1197 (best 1353) | 1085 (best 1188) | Raiders +111 |
| Backs | 1037 (best 1144) | 1084 (best 1126) | Dolphins +47 |
| Halves | 1331 (best 1331) | 1161 (best 1161) | Raiders +169 |
| Hooker | 1188 | 1234 | Dolphins +46 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Raiders predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)