Win Probability
AI Game Review
Sea Eagles defied the model's 60% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.5 but the actual margin was 16 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (23 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 6 points below Belinda Sharpe's career average of 42. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Belinda Sharpe's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 100% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Panthers
60%
Sea Eagles
40%
AI Match Overview
Panthers hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Sea Eagles are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Panthers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 34-point ELO rating advantage (1520 vs 1485). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Panthers. The margin model predicts Panthers by 5.5 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.36
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.0%
Line / Spread
Panthers -8.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.0%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Panthers | W L L L L | 22.4 |
Sea Eagles | W W L L L | 25.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.4
Panthers
23.2
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
-2.0
Panthers
2.0
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1798
Panthers
1768
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
5.2
Panthers
5.0
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
Favours Sea EaglesBelinda Sharpe
23 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Belinda Sharpe refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Belinda Sharpe officiates, Sea Eagles have won 3 of 3 games (100%), significantly stronger than Panthers's 0 from 3 (0%). Small sample (3 games for Panthers).
Avg Total
42.1 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.52
SB Away %
33%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.7 against home vs 6.2 against away. Sea Eagles get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Belinda Sharpe vs Panthers's -1.0. 67% of his 12 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Panthers predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +5.5
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