NRL | Round 8

alphr.com.au

NQL
Cowboys
VS
GLD
Titans
QUEENSLAND COUNTRY BANK STADIUM, TOWNSVILLE • SATURDAY 26 APR, 5:30 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Chris Butler officiated this match (155 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 24 points above Chris Butler's career average of 44. Cowboys's victory aligns with Chris Butler's historical trend — Cowboys have a 86% win rate under this referee. Cowboys's home victory fits Chris Butler's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 72% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 8.2 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 68 points came in 26 points higher than the predicted 42. Cowboys trailed 12–18 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 50–18. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

72%CowboysFavourite

Cowboys

72%

Titans

28%

AI Match Overview

Cowboys are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Cowboys carry a 172-point ELO rating advantage (1528 vs 1357). Recent form favours Cowboys with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Titans. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 8.2 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Cowboys to Win @1.45

Winner ✓

Edge

-1.8%

Line / Spread

Cowboys -7.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-1.8%

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+19.8%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Cowboys
WWWLL
20.8
Titans
WWLLL
20.4

Avg Conceded

23.2

Cowboys

24.4

Titans

Avg Margin

-2.4

Cowboys

-4.0

Titans

Run Metres

1700

Cowboys

1586

Titans

Line Breaks

4.4

Cowboys

3.0

Titans

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Cowboys
Chris Butler155 games since 2014

Each team's win rate when Chris Butler refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

NQL
86%12W 2L
GLD
22%7W 25L

When Chris Butler officiates, Cowboys have won 12 of 14 games (86%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 7 from 32 (22%). That's a 64‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 43.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Cowboys an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

43.6 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Cowboys lead 3-2
Mar 2026NQL 30 - 16 GLD
Jul 2025NQL 30 - 24 GLD
May 2024NQL 18 - 20 GLD
Apr 2024NQL 35 - 22 GLD
Aug 2023NQL 13 - 22 GLD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NQL
1528Overall1357
GLD
ELO difference: +172 in favour of Cowboys

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1116Forwards1128
Best: 1291GLD +12Best: 1347
1023Backs930
Best: 1195NQL +94Best: 967
1174Halves1099
Best: 1174NQL +75Best: 1099
1244Hooker958
NQL +286

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NQL
Stat
GLD
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
20.8pts
Avg Score
20.4pts
23.2pts
Avg Conceded
24.4pts
-2.4pts
Avg Margin
-4.0pts
1700.4m
Run Metres
1586.4m
4.4
Line Breaks
3.0
349.4
Tackles
330.2
12.2
Errors
11.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Cowboys
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Titans
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Cowboys
4
Halves Control9.0%
Cowboys
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Cowboys
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Cowboys
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Cowboys

Model Confidence

72%

Cowboys predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +8.2

2/3 match predictions correct
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