Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 72% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.2 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 68 points came in 26 points higher than the predicted 42. Cowboys trailed 12–18 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 50–18. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Chris Butler officiated this match (156 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 24 points above Chris Butler's career average of 44. Cowboys's victory aligns with Chris Butler's historical trend, Cowboys have a 87% win rate under this referee. Cowboys's home victory fits Chris Butler's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Chris Butler averaged 12.8 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
72%
Titans
28%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Cowboys carry a 172-point ELO rating advantage (1528 vs 1357). Recent form favours Cowboys with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Titans. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 8.2 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.45
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.8%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.8%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+19.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | W W W L L | 20.8 |
Titans | W W L L L | 20.4 |
Avg Conceded
23.2
Cowboys
24.4
Titans
Avg Margin
-2.4
Cowboys
-4.0
Titans
Run Metres
1700
Cowboys
1586
Titans
Line Breaks
4.4
Cowboys
3.0
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours CowboysChris Butler
156 career games · since 2014
Win rate when Chris Butler refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Chris Butler officiates, Cowboys have won 13 of 15 games (87%), significantly stronger than Titans's 7 from 33 (21%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
12.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.42
SB Away %
38%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Chris Butler averages 12.8 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 6.7 against away. Cowboys get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Chris Butler vs Titans's -0.5. 62% of his 60 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
Cowboys predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +8.2
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