Win Probability
AI Game Review
Broncos defied the model's 65% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 60 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 41. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 40.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 18 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Broncos's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Broncos have a 59% win rate under this referee. Broncos's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
35%
Bulldogs
65%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Broncos. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 158-point ELO rating advantage (1637 vs 1479). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Broncos. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 3.0 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.57
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | W W W L L | 25.2 |
Bulldogs | W W W W W | 25.6 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Broncos
7.6
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
5.6
Broncos
18.0
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1462
Broncos
1804
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
4.8
Broncos
5.2
Bulldogs
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Broncos have won 35 of 59 games (59%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 15 from 41 (37%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Broncos get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Bulldogs's -0.6. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -3.0
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