AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 18 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Broncos's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend — Broncos have a 60% win rate under this referee. Broncos's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile — home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Broncos defied the model's 65% prediction for Bulldogs — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 60 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 41. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 40.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Broncos
35%
Bulldogs
65%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Broncos. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 158-point ELO rating advantage (1637 vs 1479). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Broncos. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 3.0 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.57
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | WWWLL | 25.2 |
Bulldogs | WWWWW | 25.6 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Broncos
7.6
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
5.6
Broncos
18.0
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1462
Broncos
1804
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
4.8
Broncos
5.2
Bulldogs
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Broncos have won 34 of 57 games (60%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 14 from 38 (37%). That's a 23‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.8 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Broncos an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.8 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -3.0
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