# Broncos v Bulldogs — NRL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 42 – 18 Bulldogs

_Broncos charge down Bulldogs._

Half time: 34 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 35% / Bulldogs 65% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Thu, 24 Apr, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Billy Walters (80') · Bulldogs: Bronson Xerri (71' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 65% | Lost |
| Broncos | 35% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Broncos 42–18 Bulldogs in NRL Round 8 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Broncos ran past Bulldogs 42–18 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Broncos led 34–0 at the break and held on.

Bronson Xerri opened the scoring; Broncos crossed through Billy Walters; Bulldogs scored through Bronson Xerri.

The game swung on a 34-point Broncos burst between the 71st and 71st minutes. Deine Mariner was sin-binned in the 72nd minute, and Bulldogs cashed in 2 points with the extra man.

Broncos enjoyed the bulk of possession (56%). Broncos were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 8 times to 9 and completing at 83%. Broncos were sharper in attack, breaking the line 4 times to 3. Broncos won the yardage battle, grinding out 506 post-contact metres. Broncos were harder to handle in contact, busting 34 tackles to 10. Bulldogs's defence leaked, missing 34 tackles to 10. Broncos controlled territory with the boot, kicking for 682 metres.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 34 | 8 | 42 |
| Bulldogs | 0 | 18 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **83%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,537** | Run metres | 1,204 |
| **506** | Post-contact metres | 375 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **34** | Tackle breaks | 10 |
| **10** | Offloads | 7 |
| **92.3%** | Effective tackle % | 89.1% |
| **10** | Missed tackles | 34 |
| **8** | Errors | 9 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **682** | Kick metres | 481 |

**Model Report Card**

Broncos defied the model's 65% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 60 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 41. The model went 6/16 on this match. The over 40.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 18 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Broncos's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Broncos have a 58% win rate under this referee. Broncos's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 71' Try — Bronson Xerri (Bulldogs) — 34-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 72' Sin Bin — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 34-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 79' Try — Billy Walters (Broncos) — 40-18 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.57 (edge +2.1%) — model probability 65.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 3 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 65% to see off Broncos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 158 ELO points clear, 1637 to 1479. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Broncos.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Bulldogs by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 41. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Bulldogs to win, not to win big.

Broncos have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Broncos took the most recent meeting 34-20 in 2026 Round 27.

Broncos have won 7 straight; Broncos are 10-3 at home this year. Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Broncos 5th against Bulldogs 1st.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 9 · Bulldogs 1 |
| Last meeting | Broncos 34-20 |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos at home | 10-3 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 5th · Bulldogs 1st |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 35W–25L | 58% |
| Bulldogs | 16W–28L | 36% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Broncos have won 35 of 60 games (58%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 16 from 44 (36%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 7.6pts |
| 5.6pts | Avg Margin | 18.0pts |
| 1462.4m | Run Metres | 1803.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 338.2 | Tackles | 338.8 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 3W–2L | 25.2 |
| Bulldogs | 5W–0L | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Bulldogs | 20 – 34 | Broncos |
| 2026 | R8 | Broncos | 32 – 12 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R18 | Bulldogs | 18 – 22 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R21 | Broncos | 16 – 41 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R20 | Bulldogs | 24 – 44 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (2.14 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 2nd there (0.83 conceded/game). Key man: Arthars, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 13th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Xerri, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.14/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.83/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.83/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.86/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2.17/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.86/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 3 | 1 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 103m/g | 171m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.9% | 85.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 14 | 11 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 620m/g | 793m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.3/g | 14.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.6% | 81% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 8 | 9 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 584m/g | 508m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Centres 0.8/g (lg 0.67) +19% · 2nd Rows 0.51/g (lg 0.44) +16% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.67) +6% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selwyn Cobbo | FB | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 27/44g | 38% | — | — |
| 2 | Deine Mariner | WG | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/20g | 34% | — | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 35/69g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/10g | 24% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 9 in 7g | 10/10g (0·0·1·1·3·1·0·2·1·1) | 0/3g | 15/41g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ben Hunt | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/25g | 25/106g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/24g | 7/50g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | PR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/57g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Billy Walters | HK | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 7/43g | 20% | — | 🏉 80' |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 8/71g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Xavier Willison | 2R | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/21g | 19% | — | — |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/47g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Cory Paix | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/33g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Jensen | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/41g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/18g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Jaiyden Hunt | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/4g | 7/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 71' |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 6/14g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 7/13g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 38% ✓ Scored | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 6/15g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/11g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh Curran | PR | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/5g | 2/8g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.60 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/18g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 3/3g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/12g | 3/11g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.25 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 1/11g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.50 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $51.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1479 · Bulldogs 1637 · ELO difference: 158 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1060 (best 1282) | 1198 (best 1316) | Bulldogs +138 |
| Backs | 869 (best 946) | 1057 (best 1173) | Bulldogs +188 |
| Halves | 867 (best 867) | 1386 (best 1386) | Bulldogs +519 |
| Hooker | 1191 | 1065 | Broncos +126 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Broncos |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)