# Wests Tigers v Eels — NRL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 22 – 38 Eels

_Eels slip past Wests Tigers._

Half time: 10 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 52% / Eels 48% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Mon, 21 Apr, 04:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Terrell May (22'), Jahream Bula (27' Tipped ⚡), Alex Seyfarth (62'), Luke Laulilii (67' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Josh Addo-Carr (15' 1st Tipped 🎯), Isaiah Iongi (32'), Kelma Tuilagi (42'), Sam Tuivaiti (45'), Isaiah Iongi (48'), Bailey Simonsson (75' Tipped ⚡), Josh Addo-Carr (78' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 52% | Lost |
| Eels | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.6 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Wests Tigers 22–38 Eels in NRL Round 7 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eels beat Wests Tigers 38-22 at CommBank Stadium, a scoreline that on its own suggests a comfortable night out. The half-time board says otherwise: it was locked at 10-10, and the ledger of line breaks, five to six, tells you this was a tighter contest than 16 points implies.

Wests Tigers were competitive in the areas that usually decide these things. They actually won the offload count, 11 to 9, and conceded fewer penalties, 8 to 10. But the Eels held the ball better all night, completing at 87% to the Tigers' 72%, and that gap in discipline with the footy is where the game slipped away.

The middle stretch either side of half-time did the damage. Josh Addo-Carr opened the scoring in the 14th minute, and Wests Tigers hit back through Terrell May in the 22nd and Jahream Bula in the 27th to lead 10-6. Isaiah Iongi levelled it at 10-10 just before the break. Then the Eels found another gear. Kelma Tuilagi crossed in the 41st minute, Sam Tuivaiti followed three minutes later, and Iongi grabbed his second in the 47th. Three tries in six minutes, no reply, and a dead-even scoreline became 10-26.

Wests Tigers had a chance to make a fist of the finish. Alex Seyfarth scored in the 61st minute and Luke Laulilii in the 67th, dragging it back to 20-26, but Bailey Simonsson's try in the 74th and a second Addo-Carr four-pointer in the 77th put it out of reach at 22-38. In between, the sin bin got busy: Sunia Turuva and Luca Moretti both went in the 53rd minute, and Isaiah Iongi followed in the 58th despite having just scored twice.

The territory and yardage numbers explain how the Eels kept finding ground even a man down for parts of the second half. They ran for 1,665 metres to the Tigers' 1,384, and their 516 post-contact metres against 470 suggests they were harder to stop once contact was made. Missed tackles told a similar story: Wests Tigers missed 35 to the Eels' 31, even though the Tigers' effective tackle percentage of 85.8% actually edged out the Eels' 84.6%. Numbers like that don't always point the same way, and this game is a decent example of why you don't lean on just one stat to explain a result.

Before kickoff, Alphr's model had Wests Tigers as 1.6-point favourites and pegged the total at 45. Both calls missed by a wide margin: the Eels won by 16, and the two sides combined for 60 points, 15 more than tipped. Wests Tigers had also carried the better recent form into the game, three wins from their last five to the Eels' one, with an average winning margin of plus-6 compared to the Eels' minus-17. None of that showed up on the day. The Eels' halves pairing had rated well above the Tigers' in the pre-match numbers, and on this evidence it mattered more than the ladder position or the recent trend suggested it would.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| Eels | 10 | 28 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 72% | Completion rate | **87%** |
| 1,384 | Run metres | **1,665** |
| 470 | Post-contact metres | **516** |
| 5 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 31 | Tackle breaks | **35** |
| **11** | Offloads | 9 |
| **85.8%** | Effective tackle % | 84.6% |
| 35 | Missed tackles | **31** |
| 11 | Errors | **7** |
| **8** | Penalties conceded | 10 |
| 431 | Kick metres | **502** |

**Model Report Card**

Eels defied the model's 52% prediction for Wests Tigers, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.6 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 60 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 5/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 13 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Eels's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Eels have a 64% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 14' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 0-6 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 22' Try — Terrell May (Wests Tigers) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 32' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 41' Try — Kelma Tuilagi (Eels) — 10-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 44' Try — Sam Tuivaiti (Eels) — 10-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 47' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 10-26 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 53' Sin Bin — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 10-26 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 53' Sin Bin — Luca Moretti (Eels) — 10-26 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 58' Sin Bin — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 10-26 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 61' Try — Alex Seyfarth (Wests Tigers) — 14-26 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 67' Try — Luke Laulilii (Wests Tigers) — 20-26 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 74' Try — Bailey Simonsson (Eels) — 22-30 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 77' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 22-36 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.45 (edge -6.5%) — model probability 52.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 2 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Wests Tigers and Eels. The model can't split them, landing on Wests Tigers at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wests Tigers sit 92 ELO points clear, 1405 to 1314. Form leans Wests Tigers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Eels.

Wests Tigers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 1.6, with the two sides combining for about 45. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Eels have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Eels took the most recent meeting 16-13 in 2026 Round 22.

Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 7th against Eels 17th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 4 · Eels 6 |
| Last meeting | Eels 16-13 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 7th · Eels 17th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Eels 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Eels

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 1W–8L | 11% |
| Eels | 9W–5L | 64% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Eels have won 9 of 14 games (64%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 9 (11%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Eels get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Wests Tigers's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 12.2pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| 6.0pts | Avg Margin | -17.0pts |
| 1690.6m | Run Metres | 1573.2m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 3.6 |
| 310.0 | Tackles | 352.6 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 3W–2L | 26.0 |
| Eels | 1W–4L | 12.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wests Tigers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Wests Tigers | 13 – 16 | Eels |
| 2026 | R5 | Eels | 20 – 22 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R2 | Eels | 6 – 32 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R27 | Wests Tigers | 26 – 60 | Eels |
| 2024 | R4 | Eels | 16 – 17 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 17th there (1.83 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 16th-ranked middle attack (0.67 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 7th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Iongi, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.33/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.5/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.17/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 7th) | 0.67/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.83/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 5 | 1 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 248m/g | 150m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.7% | 84% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 8 | 9 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 646m/g | 755m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.3/g | 15/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.4% | 76.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 1 | 3 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 566m/g | 411m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 89.7% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Hookers 0.22/g (lg 0.14) +57% · Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.67) +49%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.26) +42% · Wingers 1.67/g (lg 1.25) +34% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 7 in 6g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·0·3·2·0·1·1) | 7/4g | 5/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Brent Naden | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 5 in 5g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·1) | 2/5g | 1/7g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Luke Laulilii | WG | 1 in 1g | 3/6g (1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 2/16g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 1/9g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/13g | 16% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Bird | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/8g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Sione Fainu | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 2 in 6g | 2/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 25% | — | 🏉 32' 48' |
| 2 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 3 in 4g | 10/10g (2·2·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 5/9g | 5/10g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 15' 78' |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·1·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 12/37g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 12/23g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Bailey Simonsson | WG | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 6/23g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 14/57g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 4/12g | 16/54g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 9/73g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/12g | 12% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 13% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/19g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/15g | 2/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Luca Moretti | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Doorey | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 45' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1405 · Eels 1314 · ELO difference: 92 in favour of Wests Tigers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1067 (best 1305) | 1082 (best 1239) | Eels +15 |
| Backs | 917 (best 1039) | 937 (best 1009) | Eels +20 |
| Halves | 869 (best 869) | 1070 (best 1070) | Eels +201 |
| Hooker | 1057 | 1021 | Wests Tigers +36 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Eels |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)