Win Probability
AI Game Review
Warriors defied the model's 58% prediction for Broncos, a notable result. The predicted margin of 2.8 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Chris Butler officiated this match (156 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 6 points below Chris Butler's career average of 44. Warriors bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 42% of games under Chris Butler, but couldn't convert that edge today. Warriors's home victory fits Chris Butler's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Chris Butler averaged 12.8 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
42%
Broncos
58%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 42%. Warriors are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Halves Control, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage, but Broncos counter with ELO Difference and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Broncos carry a 32-point ELO rating advantage (1502 vs 1471). The margin model predicts Broncos by 2.8 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.38
Lost ✗
Edge
-14.1%
Line / Spread
Broncos +8.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-14.1%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | W W W L L | 19.6 |
Broncos | W W W L L | 26.0 |
Avg Conceded
23.6
Warriors
22.0
Broncos
Avg Margin
-4.0
Warriors
4.0
Broncos
Run Metres
1769
Warriors
1519
Broncos
Line Breaks
3.2
Warriors
5.0
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosChris Butler
156 career games · since 2014
Win rate when Chris Butler refs each team (vs any opponent)
Broncos hold a 9-point edge: 5W–7L (42%) vs Warriors's 10W–20L (33%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
12.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.42
SB Away %
38%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Chris Butler averages 12.8 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 6.7 against away. Warriors get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Chris Butler vs Broncos's -0.3. 62% of his 60 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Broncos predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -2.8
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