# Warriors v Broncos — NRL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 20 – 18 Broncos

_Warriors hold off a fast-finishing Broncos._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 42% / Broncos 58% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Sat, 19 Apr, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Leka Halasima (31'), Edward Kosi (52' Tipped ⚡), Luke Metcalf (61' Tipped ⚡), Marata Niukore (64') · Broncos: Billy Walters (3' 1st), Jesse Arthars (67' Tipped ⚡), Reece Walsh (74' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 58% | Lost |
| Warriors | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.8 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 20–18 Broncos in NRL Round 7 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten penalties to four. That gap in discipline is what let the Warriors turn a 6-6 arm-wrestle into a 20-18 win over the Broncos at Go Media Stadium.

Billy Walters got the Broncos moving inside three minutes, and the sides traded nothing much until Leka Halasima levelled it at 4-6 in the 30th. Six-all at half-time, and on the stat sheet it looked like it should have stayed that way. The Broncos were the tidier side with ball in hand, completing at 69% and giving it up just 12 times to the Warriors' 13. Their forward pack rated marginally ahead pre-match too, 1139 to 1144, near enough a wash.

But then the penalty count started to bite. Ten against the Broncos, four against the Warriors, and every time Auckland got another set piece the Broncos were handing over territory they couldn't afford to give. From 51 minutes the floodgates opened: Edward Kosi in, then Luke Metcalf, then Marata Niukore, three tries in thirteen minutes to push it out to 18-6. That's the passage that decided the contest.

The Warriors backed it up with the boot and the legs. Kicking for 646 metres to the Broncos' 540 kept field position in their favour all night, and 1,465 run metres to 1,288 meant the Broncos were forever tackling instead of attacking. Warriors halves rated a big edge coming in, 1029 to 897, and it showed in exactly the kind of territory-and-completion game that suits a stronger halves pairing: 84% completion against the Broncos' 69% is the number that let Auckland actually use the ball they had, 54% of it.

Brisbane didn't fold. Jesse Arthars crossed in the 66th, Reece Walsh followed in the 73rd, and suddenly an 18-6 canter was an 18-16 nail-biter with time still on the clock. The Broncos even edged the collision stats, 27 tackle breaks to 25 and 91.0% effective tackling against the Warriors' 89.7%, evidence the pack up front held up its end. It just wasn't enough to cancel out ten penalties and a spray of second-half tries.

Form lines going in had the Broncos scoring heavier, 26 points a game to the Warriors' 19.6, and Alphr's model backed that trend, tipping Brisbane by 2.8 on a 1502-to-1471 ratings edge. The Warriors defied all of it, and did so by playing the exact opposite of their recent form: better completion, fewer errors relative to the occasion, and a discipline count that flipped the expected script entirely.

Alphr's model finished 5 from 16 on this one, with the under 47.5 total the one call that landed clean. A 2.8-point predicted margin against an actual 2-point result isn't a bad miss on the number. Picking the wrong team to be on the right side of it, that's the one that stings.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 6 | 14 | 20 |
| Broncos | 6 | 12 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 69% |
| **1,465** | Run metres | 1,288 |
| **524** | Post-contact metres | 496 |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| 25 | Tackle breaks | **27** |
| 6 | Offloads | **7** |
| 89.7% | Effective tackle % | **91.0%** |
| 27 | Missed tackles | **25** |
| 13 | Errors | **12** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 10 |
| **646** | Kick metres | 540 |

**Model Report Card**

Warriors defied the model's 58% prediction for Broncos, a notable result. The predicted margin of 2.8 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 5/16 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Chris Butler officiated this match (156 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 6 points below Chris Butler's career average of 44. Warriors bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 42% of games under Chris Butler, but couldn't convert that edge today. Warriors's home victory fits Chris Butler's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Chris Butler averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Billy Walters (Broncos) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 30' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 51' Try — Edward Kosi (Warriors) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 60' Try — Luke Metcalf (Warriors) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 64' Try — Marata Niukore (Warriors) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 66' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 18-10 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 73' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.38 (edge -14.1%) — model probability 57.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -14.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 3 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Broncos are the call at 58%, but Warriors stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 32 ELO points clear, 1502 to 1471.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Broncos by 2.8, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Warriors have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 40-6 in 2026 Round 24.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Broncos have won 7 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Warriors 3, Broncos 5.

On the ladder it's Warriors 6th against Broncos 3rd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 6 · Broncos 4 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 40-6 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 6th · Broncos 3rd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Chris Butler** — 156 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Chris Butler | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 10W–20L | 33% |
| Broncos | 5W–7L | 42% |

Avg total: 43.7 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Broncos hold a 9-point edge: 5W–7L (42%) vs Warriors's 10W–20L (33%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Chris Butler averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.7 against away. Warriors get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Chris Butler vs Broncos's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.0pts |
| -4.0pts | Avg Margin | 4.0pts |
| 1769.0m | Run Metres | 1519.4m |
| 3.2 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 350.4 | Tackles | 330.0 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 3W–2L | 19.6 |
| Broncos | 3W–2L | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Broncos | 6 – 40 | Warriors |
| 2026 | R11 | Warriors | 42 – 12 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R17 | Broncos | 26 – 12 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R17 | Warriors | 32 – 16 | Broncos |
| 2023 | PF | Broncos | 42 – 12 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 13th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Leiataua, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.33 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 14th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Arthars, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.8/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 14th (weak)) | 2.33/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.6/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 11th) | 1.83/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.2/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 2 | 5 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 225m/g | 115m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 86.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 12 | 20 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 656m/g | 638m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.4/g | 17.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.7% | 77.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 5 | 3 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 512m/g | 576m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 11.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.4% | 90% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27% · Centres 0.72/g (lg 0.67) +7% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.11) +0% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.44) -2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 7% | — | — |
| 2 | Edward Kosi | WG | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 7/8g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 3 | Kurt Capewell | CE | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/12g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Adam Pompey | WG | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 4/24g | 14% | — | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 9/19g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 4/11g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 8 | Jackson Ford | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/20g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/25g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/20g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 2 in 5g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 22% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 4/16g | 16% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Bunty Afoa | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/44g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Laban | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 2/10g | 20% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' |
| 2 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 8 in 6g | 9/10g (0·0·0·1·1·3·1·0·2·1) | 1/4g | 2/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.69 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' |
| 6 | Ben Hunt | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/23g | 1/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/15g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | INT | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Jaiyden Hunt | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | HK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 15 | Corey Jensen | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Xavier Willison | 2R | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 17 | Tyson Smoothy | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1471 · Broncos 1502 · ELO difference: 32 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1144 (best 1307) | 1139 (best 1314) | Warriors +5 |
| Backs | 930 (best 1035) | 976 (best 1037) | Broncos +47 |
| Halves | 1029 (best 1029) | 897 (best 897) | Warriors +132 |
| Hooker | 1037 | 1191 | Broncos +153 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Broncos predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r7-warriors-v-broncos
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)