Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 1.8 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Raiders's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Raiders have a 52% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Titans
41%
Raiders
59%
AI Match Overview
Raiders hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Raiders ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Raiders carry a 137-point ELO rating advantage (1512 vs 1375). Recent form favours Raiders with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Titans. The margin model predicts Raiders by 1.8 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.85
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.6%
Line / Spread
Raiders +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.6%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+22.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | W W L L L | 21.2 |
Raiders | W W W L L | 27.6 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
Titans
24.8
Raiders
Avg Margin
-5.2
Titans
2.8
Raiders
Run Metres
1597
Titans
1609
Raiders
Line Breaks
3.4
Titans
5.2
Raiders
Referee Indicator
Favours RaidersAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Raiders have won 22 of 42 games (52%), significantly stronger than Titans's 4 from 24 (17%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Titans get a +1.3 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Raiders's -0.8. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Raiders predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -1.8
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