NRL | Round 7

alphr.com.au

GLD
Titans
VS
CAN
Raiders
CBUS SUPER STADIUM, GOLD COAST • SUNDAY 20 APR, 2:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Raiders's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend — Raiders have a 53% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 1.8 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

59%RaidersFavourite

Titans

41%

Raiders

59%

AI Match Overview

Raiders hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Raiders ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Raiders carry a 137-point ELO rating advantage (1512 vs 1375). Recent form favours Raiders with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Titans. The margin model predicts Raiders by 1.8 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Raiders to Win @1.85

Winner ✓

Edge

-6.6%

Line / Spread

Raiders +1.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-6.6%

Total Points

Under 51.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+22.3%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Titans
WWLLL
21.2
Raiders
WWWLL
27.6

Avg Conceded

26.4

Titans

24.8

Raiders

Avg Margin

-5.2

Titans

2.8

Raiders

Run Metres

1597

Titans

1609

Raiders

Line Breaks

3.4

Titans

5.2

Raiders

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Raiders
Adam Gee287 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

GLD
17%4W 19L
CAN
53%21W 19L

When Adam Gee officiates, Raiders have won 21 of 40 games (53%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 4 from 23 (17%). That's a 36‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Titans an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

42.6 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Raiders lead 5-0
May 2025GLD 24 - 40 CAN
Apr 2024GLD 20 - 21 CAN
Jul 2023GLD 22 - 26 CAN
Jul 2022GLD 24 - 36 CAN
Mar 2022GLD 22 - 24 CAN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GLD
1375Overall1512
CAN
ELO difference: -137 in favour of Raiders

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1032Forwards1201
Best: 1290CAN +169Best: 1364
854Backs1008
Best: 975CAN +154Best: 1100
1132Halves1381
Best: 1132CAN +249Best: 1381
943Hooker1188
CAN +245

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GLD
Stat
CAN
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
21.2pts
Avg Score
27.6pts
26.4pts
Avg Conceded
24.8pts
-5.2pts
Avg Margin
2.8pts
1597.0m
Run Metres
1609.0m
3.4
Line Breaks
5.2
328.4
Tackles
350.2
11.4
Errors
10.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Raiders
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Raiders
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Raiders
4
Halves Control9.0%
Raiders
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Raiders
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Titans
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Raiders

Model Confidence

59%

Raiders predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -1.8

3/3 match predictions correct
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