# Titans v Raiders — NRL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 20 – 30 Raiders

_Raiders ransack Titans._

Half time: 16 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 41% / Raiders 59% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sun, 20 Apr, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Beau Fermor (4' 1st), Jojo Fifita (10' Tipped ⚡), AJ Brimson (19' Tipped ⚡), Allan Fitzgibbon (51') · Raiders: Savelio Tamale (26' Tipped ⚡), Hudson Young (33' Tipped ⚡), Ethan Strange (39'), Sebastian Kris (42' Tipped ⚡), Hudson Young (65' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 59% | Won |
| Titans | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.8 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Titans 20–30 Raiders in NRL Round 7 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty-four tackle breaks to eighteen. That gap alone explains how the Raiders turned a 16-16 deadlock into a 30-20 win over the Titans at Cbus Super Stadium, because a side that keeps beating defenders eventually finds the points to go with it.

The Titans led 14-0 inside 19 minutes and looked to be cruising. Beau Fermor opened the scoring in the third minute, Jojo Fifita crossed in the ninth and AJ Brimson made it three tries without reply by the 19th. Then the Raiders started asserting themselves where it counts. Savelio Tamale got them on the board in the 26th, Hudson Young followed in the 33rd, Ethan Strange in the 39th and Sebastian Kris right on the stroke of half-time to flip a 16-point deficit into a 20-16 lead by the break. Four tries in 16 minutes from a Titans side that had barely been troubled before that.

Allan Fitzgibbon's try just after half-time briefly put the Titans back in front at 20-22, but Hudson Young's second, in the 64th minute, settled it. The scoreboard tightened to 16-16 at the break and never really loosened again until the Raiders found that last gear.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Canberra ran 1,546 metres to 1,462, forced four line breaks to three, and offloaded the ball six times to four. None of those gaps are enormous on their own. But the tackle-break count, 34 to 18, was almost double, and that's the number that turned direct hit-ups into quick play-the-balls and repeat sets. The Titans' defence paid for it, missing 34 tackles against the Raiders' 18, and an effective tackle rate of 89.2% against 92.3% tells the same story from the other side of the ledger.

Discipline mattered too. The Raiders conceded just 11 errors and nine penalties against the Titans' 14 and nine, and held 53% of possession. When you're cleaner with the ball and harder to bring down, the raw metres and the line breaks tend to follow, and eventually so does the scoreboard.

None of this should come as a shock given the gap in the pre-match numbers. The Raiders went in rated stronger across the park: forwards 1201 to 1032, halves 1381 to 1132, hooker 1188 to 943. Add in the form line, three wins from five against two, and an average winning margin of plus-2.8 against minus-5.2 for the Titans, and the class difference was always going to show up somewhere. It just took a three-try, no-reply stretch either side of half-time for it to show up on the board.

Alphr's model had Canberra as 59% favourites and picked the margin at 1.8 points, with a combined total of 43. The Raiders won by ten and the match finished 50 points, comfortably under the 51.5 total line, which the model called correctly. The margin read was conservative against how the second half actually played out, but the direction, and the reasoning behind it, held up. Wins and misses, all of it: this one was closer to a win.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 16 | 4 | 20 |
| Raiders | 16 | 14 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 78% | Completion rate | 78% |
| 1,462 | Run metres | **1,546** |
| 509 | Post-contact metres | **520** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 18 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| 4 | Offloads | **6** |
| 89.2% | Effective tackle % | **92.3%** |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **18** |
| 14 | Errors | **11** |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **7** |
| **649** | Kick metres | 577 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 1.8 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The model went 8/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 1.5-point line. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Raiders's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Raiders have a 50% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 9' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 19' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 26' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 16-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 33' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 16-8 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 39' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 16-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 42' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 16-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 51' Try — Allan Fitzgibbon (Titans) — 20-22 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 64' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 20-26 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.85 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 59.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +22.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 2 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 59%, but Titans stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 137 ELO points clear, 1512 to 1375. Form leans Raiders' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Titans.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Raiders by 1.8, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Raiders have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 28-12 in 2026 Round 9.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Titans 11th against Raiders 4th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 1 · Raiders 9 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 28-12 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 11th · Raiders 4th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Raiders 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 5W–21L | 19% |
| Raiders | 22W–22L | 50% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Raiders have won 22 of 44 games (50%), significantly stronger than Titans's 5 from 26 (19%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Titans get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Raiders's -0.3. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 27.6pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.8pts |
| -5.2pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 1597.0m | Run Metres | 1609.0m |
| 3.4 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 328.4 | Tackles | 350.2 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 2W–3L | 21.2 |
| Raiders | 3W–2L | 27.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Titans | 12 – 28 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R11 | Raiders | 40 – 24 | Titans |
| 2024 | R6 | Raiders | 21 – 20 | Titans |
| 2023 | R18 | Raiders | 26 – 22 | Titans |
| 2022 | R20 | Titans | 24 – 36 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (2.17 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.33 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 10th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 10th) | 2.33/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 2.17/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.8/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.17/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.8/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 12th) | 1.17/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 2 | 2 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 216m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.4/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.1% | 88.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 12 | 14 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 630m/g | 674m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.2/g | 19.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.3% | 77% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 6 | 12 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 548m/g | 597m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.4/g | 13/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 91.9% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.16) +56% · Centres 0.95/g (lg 0.67) +42% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.26) +35%
**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.4/g (lg 0.16) +150% · Fullbacks 0.75/g (lg 0.44) +70% · 2nd Rows 0.64/g (lg 0.44) +45%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylan De Groot | FB | 0 in 5g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/12g | 18/59g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Phillip Sami | CE | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 4/10g | 28/57g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Jojo Fifita | WG | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (0·3·0·2·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 7/20g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' |
| 6 | AJ Brimson | 5/8 | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 1/8g | 24/56g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/66g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 9/35g | 28% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 6/31g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Randall | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/25g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/22g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Jaimin Jolliffe | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/40g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 4% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/7g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 1/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 4/6g | 2/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 4 in 5g | 9/10g (1·0·2·1·1·2·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/13g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·2) | 4/6g | 3/5g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' 65' |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | 2R | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (2·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Zac Hosking | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 15% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | LK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 1/15g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1375 · Raiders 1512 · ELO difference: 137 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1032 (best 1290) | 1201 (best 1364) | Raiders +169 |
| Backs | 854 (best 975) | 1008 (best 1100) | Raiders +154 |
| Halves | 1132 (best 1132) | 1381 (best 1381) | Raiders +249 |
| Hooker | 943 | 1188 | Raiders +245 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Titans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Raiders predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)