# Sea Eagles v Dragons — NRL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 18 – 20 Dragons

_Dragons hold off a fast-finishing Sea Eagles._

Half time: 0 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 66% / Dragons 34% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Thu, 17 Apr, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Tolutau Koula (49' Tipped ⚡), Ben Trbojevic (56'), Jason Saab (67' Tipped ⚡) · Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (19' 1st Tipped 🎯), Tyrell Sloan (46' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jacob Liddle (61')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 66% | Lost |
| Dragons | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.0 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sea Eagles 18–20 Dragons in NRL Round 7 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nil-all wasn't the story at Brookvale Oval. Nil-8 was, and the Dragons made it stand up.

Tyrell Sloan got the ball rolling in the 18th minute, and by the break the Sea Eagles had nothing to show for their own footy. That's the bit that mattered most: the home side had 53% of the ball at full-time and still went to the sheds down 8. Territory doesn't count for much if you can't finish it.

Sloan wasn't done. He struck again in the 46th, minutes after the resumption, and suddenly it was 12-0 and the Sea Eagles were staring down a proper hole. What followed was the only stretch of footy that made this a contest. Tolutau Koula got one back in the 49th, Toafofoa Sipley then took a walk to the bin in the 52nd, and somehow the Sea Eagles used the disadvantage to their benefit, with Ben Trbojevic crashing over in the 56th to make it 12-14. Jacob Liddle restored the Dragons' cushion in the 61st, and Jason Saab's try five minutes later was the last say in it, leaving the Sea Eagles two points short at 18-20.

The stat sheet explains why the Dragons never really lost control despite trailing on the ledger that usually decides these things. Six line breaks to two is a big gap, and 25 tackle breaks to 18 backs it up. Eleven offloads to six says the ball stayed alive in Dragons hands when it mattered, and their 93.1% effective tackle rate against the Sea Eagles' 89.2% tells you who was doing the containing. The Sea Eagles won the arm-wrestle for metres, 1,994 to 1,798, and post-contact metres too, 674 to 603, but grinding out yardage without the line breaks to cash it in just means tired legs.

Discipline mattered as well. Nine penalties conceded by the Sea Eagles to the Dragons' five is the kind of gap that hands over field position for free, and 25 missed tackles to 18 is where a chunk of that line-break difference comes from.

This one lines up with the pre-match numbers better than the scoreboard first suggests. The Dragons' hooker rating of 954 against the Sea Eagles' 613 was always going to show up around the ruck, and it did, in the offloads and the tackle breaks. The Sea Eagles' halves edge, 1360 to 1089, got them into the game through Koula, Trbojevic and Saab, but it wasn't enough to cancel out a Dragons forward pack rated 1135 to 1067 doing the heavy lifting up front.

Alphr's model had the Sea Eagles favourites at 66%, expecting a 4-point win and a total near 41. The final margin came in at 2 points the other way, and the total of 38 wasn't far off the mark either. Wrong side of the ledger on the winner, close enough on the shape of the game. Model went 5 from 16 on this one, over 28.5 the lone tick in the right column.

Close finish, wrong favourite, right total. Dragons will take the two points and not lose sleep over how it happened.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 0 | 18 | 18 |
| Dragons | 8 | 12 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| 73% | Completion rate | **75%** |
| **1,994** | Run metres | 1,798 |
| **674** | Post-contact metres | 603 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 18 | Tackle breaks | **25** |
| 6 | Offloads | **11** |
| 89.2% | Effective tackle % | **93.1%** |
| 25 | Missed tackles | **18** |
| **12** | Errors | 13 |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **544** | Kick metres | 499 |

**Model Report Card**

Dragons defied the model's 66% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 4.0 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 38, within 3 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. The over 28.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 6 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Dragons's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Dragons have a 54% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 18' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 46' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 49' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 4-14 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 52' Sin Bin — Toafofoa Sipley (Sea Eagles) — 4-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 56' Try — Ben Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 12-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 61' Try — Jacob Liddle (Dragons) — 14-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 66' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 18-20 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.60 (edge +2.3%) — model probability 66.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 28.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 4 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 66% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 72 ELO points clear, 1512 to 1441.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 4.0, with the two sides combining for about 41. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Sea Eagles to win, not to win big.

Sea Eagles have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Sea Eagles took the most recent meeting 44-10 in 2026 Round 26.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 8th against Dragons 10th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 6 · Dragons 4 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 44-10 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 8-4 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 8th · Dragons 10th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Dragons 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dragons

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 9W–10L | 47% |
| Dragons | 15W–13L | 54% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Dragons hold a 7-point edge: 15W–13L (54%) vs Sea Eagles's 9W–10L (47%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Dragons get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sea Eagles's -1.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| -1.6pts | Avg Margin | 3.6pts |
| 1638.6m | Run Metres | 1709.2m |
| 5.6 | Line Breaks | 6.2 |
| 315.8 | Tackles | 360.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 2W–3L | 24.8 |
| Dragons | 2W–3L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Sea Eagles | 44 – 10 | Dragons |
| 2026 | R6 | Dragons | 18 – 28 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R26 | Dragons | 24 – 40 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R15 | Sea Eagles | 30 – 14 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R4 | Dragons | 20 – 12 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (1.83 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 13th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Cherry-Evans, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.8 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 10th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 10th) | 1.8/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.83/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 12th) | 1.6/g (att 8th) · concedes 2/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) | 0.4/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 4 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 205m/g | 160m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 2.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.8% | 85.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 15 | 15 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 2.8/g |
| Run Metres | 698m/g | 794m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.3/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.3/g | 5.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.7% | 81% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 4 | 1 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 532m/g | 493m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 92% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — 2nd Rows 0.66/g (lg 0.44) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.26) +46% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Fullbacks 0.55/g (lg 0.44) +25% · Wingers 1.43/g (lg 1.25) +14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehi Hopoate | FB | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 6/10g | 33% | — | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 20/31g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/4g | 14/28g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·4·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 37/52g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 60% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Tommy Talau | WG | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 8/11g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/15g | 5/21g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/18g | 39/131g | 34% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 16/36g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/26g | 22% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 17/91g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 1/18g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/29g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | PR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/34g | 12% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 2 in 5g | 8/10g (2·0·0·2·2·0·0·0·2·0) | 8/16g | 6/9g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 4 in 4g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·2) | 4/4g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 19' 46' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/25g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 2 in 5g | 9/10g (3·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/11g | 3/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Mathew Feagai | WG | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 1/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 2/5g | 22% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 15 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1512 · Dragons 1441 · ELO difference: 72 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1067 (best 1231) | 1135 (best 1290) | Dragons +68 |
| Backs | 932 (best 1077) | 1060 (best 1185) | Dragons +128 |
| Halves | 1360 (best 1360) | 1089 (best 1089) | Sea Eagles +271 |
| Hooker | 613 | 954 | Dragons +341 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dragons |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)