Win Probability
AI Game Review
Dragons defied the model's 66% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 4.0 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 38, within 3 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 28.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 6 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
66%
Dragons
34%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. Sea Eagles carry a 72-point ELO rating advantage (1512 vs 1441). The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 4.0 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.60
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.3%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.3%
Total Points
Over 28.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+30.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | W W L L L | 24.8 |
Dragons | W W L L L | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
Sea Eagles
20.0
Dragons
Avg Margin
-1.6
Sea Eagles
3.6
Dragons
Run Metres
1639
Sea Eagles
1709
Dragons
Line Breaks
5.6
Sea Eagles
6.2
Dragons
Referee Indicator
BalancedPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Peter Gough, Sea Eagles 9W–9L (50%) and Dragons 14W–13L (52%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Dragons get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sea Eagles's -1.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +4.0
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