AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 10 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 5.3 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 52 — within 2 points. Panthers led 6–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Roosters
34%
Panthers
66%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Roosters. Roosters are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency — but Panthers counter with ELO Difference and Forward Pack which tips the scales. Recent form favours Roosters with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Panthers. The margin model predicts Panthers by 5.3 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.66
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Line / Spread
Panthers +3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Total Points
Over 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | WWLLL | 19.2 |
Panthers | LLLLL | 20.8 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Roosters
29.6
Panthers
Avg Margin
-3.2
Roosters
-8.8
Panthers
Run Metres
1650
Roosters
1747
Panthers
Line Breaks
5.8
Roosters
5.6
Panthers
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Gerard Sutton officiates — Roosters 32W–26L (55%) and Panthers 31W–28L (53%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 41.8 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Roosters an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.8 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Panthers predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -5.3
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.