# Roosters v Panthers — NRL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 12 – 40 Panthers

_Panthers run riot over Roosters._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 34% / Panthers 66% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 19 Apr, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Daniel Tupou (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Robert Toia (57') · Panthers: Paul Alamoti (24' Tipped ⚡), Paul Alamoti (38' Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Papali'i (51'), Blaize Talagi (60'), Dylan Edwards (66' Tipped ⚡), Casey McLean (72' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 66% | Won |
| Roosters | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.3 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Roosters 12–40 Panthers in NRL Round 7 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Daniel Tupou had the Roosters up 4-0 inside four minutes, and for a moment it looked like an away banana skin was brewing at Allianz Stadium. It did not last. Paul Alamoti crossed twice either side of the break, at 23' and 38', and by half-time the Panthers led 12-6. The Roosters never got their nose back in front.

The second half was one long procession the other way. Isaiah Papali'i scored at 51' to make it 18-6, Robert Toia hit back for the Roosters five minutes later, and that was as close as it got. From 60' to 72', Penrith ran in three more through Blaize Talagi, Dylan Edwards and Casey McLean, turning a manageable gap into a 40-12 rout. Four tries in twelve second-half minutes will do that.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard was already saying. Penrith held 54% of the ball and completed at 85% to the Roosters' 81%, the kind of gap that lets a team dictate when and where it attacks. They ran for 1,754 metres to 1,369, with 617 post-contact metres doing plenty of the damage, and broke 36 tackles to the Roosters' 28. Sydney's line simply couldn't hold its shape, missing 36 tackles against Penrith's 28, and every one of those misses turned into hard yards for the visitors.

The forward pack numbers coming in told part of the story before a ball was kicked. Penrith rated at 1121 against the Roosters' 1049 up front, and a 1227 to 1112 edge in the halves gave them the field position to work with. Add a hooker rating of 704 to the Roosters' 999, and on paper that looked like a Sydney strength. It didn't show up where it mattered, with the completion rate and the missed tackles doing the damage instead.

Roosters actually won the effective tackle percentage battle, 89.4% to 87.9%, and shaded the offloads 9 to 7. Small mercies. None of it matters much when you're conceding 40 points and your own execution slips, with 10 errors to Penrith's 9 and six penalties conceded to the Panthers' four. Field position and discipline handed Penrith the platform, and they didn't need to be asked twice.

Alphr's model had Penrith favourites pre-match at 66% and picked them right. The margin, though, was a clean miss: 5.3 points projected, 28 delivered. The total was the bright spot, with 50 points forecast against an actual 52, within two. Call it 8 from 16 on the night, a competent read on the winner undone by how far Penrith were prepared to push it once the door opened at 51'.

For the Roosters, the form line coming in read losing but competitive, an average margin of minus 3.2 across the last five. This was neither. Once Papali'i and Talagi got their tries away in that second-half stretch, the gap became less a scoreline and more a formality, and Toia's try was really just a footnote on the way to 40.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Panthers | 12 | 28 | 40 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 81% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,369 | Run metres | **1,754** |
| 499 | Post-contact metres | **617** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 28 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| **9** | Offloads | 7 |
| **89.4%** | Effective tackle % | 87.9% |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **28** |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 669 | Kick metres | **748** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.3 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 52, within 2 points. Panthers led 6–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 8/16 on this match. Panthers covered the 3.5-point line. The over 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 10 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Panthers's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Panthers have a 59% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 23' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 38' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 51' Try — Isaiah Papali'i (Panthers) — 6-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 56' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 10-20 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 60' Try — Blaize Talagi (Panthers) — 12-24 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 66' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 12-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 72' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 12-36 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.66 (edge +1.8%) — model probability 65.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 5 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 66% to see off Roosters. Form leans Roosters' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Panthers.

On paper Roosters shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Recent Win Rate, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with Panthers, which says Forward Pack and Halves Control carry the most weight. The margin model has Panthers by 5.3, with the two sides combining for about 50. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Panthers to win, not to win big.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 19-12 in 2026 Round 28.

Panthers have put up 124 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Roosters 15th against Panthers 16th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 19-12 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters at home | 6-6 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 15th · Panthers 16th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 32W–28L | 53% |
| Panthers | 36W–25L | 59% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Panthers hold a 6-point edge: 36W–25L (59%) vs Roosters's 32W–28L (53%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Panthers get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Roosters's -1.2. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 20.8pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 29.6pts |
| -3.2pts | Avg Margin | -8.8pts |
| 1649.8m | Run Metres | 1747.2m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 368.6 | Tackles | 358.0 |
| 14.2 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 2W–3L | 19.2 |
| Panthers | 0W–5L | 20.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FW1 | Panthers | 19 – 12 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R24 | Panthers | 6 – 12 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R3 | Roosters | 4 – 40 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R2 | Panthers | 32 – 38 | Roosters |
| 2024 | FW1 | Panthers | 30 – 10 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 15th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Tupou, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the middle: NRL's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 17th there (2.17 conceded/game). Key man: Schneider, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 9th) | 1.5/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 1.17/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.17/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 7th) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.67/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 6 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 178m/g | 203m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 85.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 18 | 14 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 686m/g | 772m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.5/g | 13.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.9% | 79.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 4 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 531m/g | 481m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 92% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Fullbacks 0.45/g (lg 0.44) +2% · 2nd Rows 0.37/g (lg 0.44) -16%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.26) +38% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 0 in 6g | 5/10g (2·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 20/40g | 40% | — | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (2·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 9/21g | 62/90g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| 3 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | CE | 2 in 5g | 3/6g (1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 5 | Dominic Young | WG | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/7g | 16/13g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/13g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Hugo Savala | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Nat Butcher | PR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 3/26g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 5/35g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 7/36g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Salesi Foketi | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 2/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| 2 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 38' |
| 3 | Luke Garner | CE | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' |
| 5 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 34% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/14g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 2/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Isaiah Papali'i | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 16 | Liam Henry | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Izack Tago | INT | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 1/2g | 34% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1471 · Panthers 1478 · ELO difference: 7 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1049 (best 1239) | 1121 (best 1289) | Panthers +72 |
| Backs | 991 (best 1117) | 980 (best 1101) | Roosters +11 |
| Halves | 1112 (best 1112) | 1227 (best 1227) | Panthers +115 |
| Hooker | 999 | 704 | Roosters +295 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Panthers predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)