Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.3 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 52, within 2 points. Panthers led 6–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 10 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
34%
Panthers
66%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Roosters. Roosters are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency, but Panthers counter with ELO Difference and Forward Pack which tips the scales. Recent form favours Roosters with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Panthers. The margin model predicts Panthers by 5.3 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.66
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Line / Spread
Panthers +3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Total Points
Over 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W W L L L | 19.2 |
Panthers | L L L L L | 20.8 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Roosters
29.6
Panthers
Avg Margin
-3.2
Roosters
-8.8
Panthers
Run Metres
1650
Roosters
1747
Panthers
Line Breaks
5.8
Roosters
5.6
Panthers
Referee Indicator
BalancedGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Roosters 32W–27L (54%) and Panthers 33W–29L (53%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Panthers get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Roosters's -2.1. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Panthers predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -5.3
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