Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 48, within 1 points. Sharks led 4–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 4 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Sharks prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
36%
Sharks
64%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Sharks ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sharks carry a 147-point ELO rating advantage (1548 vs 1401). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Sharks by 4.8 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.5%
Line / Spread
Sharks +9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.5%
Total Points
Over 42.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | W W L L L | 9.2 |
Sharks | W W W L L | 22.6 |
Avg Conceded
17.2
Knights
17.2
Sharks
Avg Margin
-8.0
Knights
5.4
Sharks
Run Metres
1634
Knights
1773
Sharks
Line Breaks
4.2
Knights
5.2
Sharks
Referee Indicator
BalancedAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Knights 16W–25L (39%) and Sharks 25W–32L (44%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Sharks predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: -4.8
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