# Knights v Sharks — NRL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 14 – 34 Sharks

_Sharks devour Knights._

Half time: 4 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 36% / Sharks 64% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sun, 20 Apr, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Greg Marzhew (30'), Fletcher Sharpe (71' Tipped ⚡), James Schiller (79' Tipped ⚡) · Sharks: Oregon Kaufusi (12' 1st), Addin Fonua-Blake (17'), Samuel Stonestreet (22' Tipped ⚡), Samuel Stonestreet (46' Tipped ⚡), William Kennedy (49'), Mawene Hiroti (74' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 64% | Won |
| Knights | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.8 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Knights 14–34 Sharks in NRL Round 7 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen points from the Knights and a handful of signs they'll want to keep, buried under a scoreline that says otherwise. Newcastle made 19 offloads to the Sharks' 9, forced 45 tackle breaks to 41, and defended at 88.2% compared to the Sharks' 80.5%. On another day that's the platform for an upset. Instead they lost 34-14.

The problem was what happened before and after contact. The Sharks ran for 1,885 metres to the Knights' 1,702, and made 621 of them after the tackle to the Knights' 549. Add 56% of the ball and an 85% completion rate against the Knights' 66%, and Cronulla simply had it more often and did more with it. Newcastle's 16 errors to the Sharks' 10 kept handing back the one thing they couldn't afford to lose, momentum.

It showed early. Oregon Kaufusi opened the scoring in the 11th minute, Addin Fonua-Blake followed in the 16th and Samuel Stonestreet crossed in the 21st, and by then the Sharks were out to 16-0. Greg Marzhew got the Knights on the board in the 30th minute, and at the break it read 16-4, a gap that never looked like closing.

It got harder from there. James Schiller was sin-binned in the 44th minute, and the Sharks made him pay almost immediately, Stonestreet grabbing his second in the 46th and William Kennedy following in the 49th to push it out to 26-4. Fletcher Sharpe and Schiller both crossed late, in the 70th and 78th minutes, but by then it was about respectability, not the result. Mawene Hiroti's try in the 73rd made sure of that.

The pre-match numbers had this pegged as a Sharks win, and the shape of the sides explains why. Cronulla's halves rated at 1,170 to the Knights' 864, their backs 1,049 to 911, and that gap in creativity in the spine is where the tries came from. Newcastle actually won the hooker battle, 1,169 to 1,011, and it's part of why they could still generate width and offloads without matching the Sharks for polish. Form lines told the same story coming in, Newcastle averaging 9.2 points a game across their last five against Cronulla's 22.6, and a means-tested loss like this one fits the pattern.

Alphr's model backed the Sharks at 64% and got the winner right. The total of 47 points landed close, with 48 actually posted. The margin was the miss, tipped at 4.8 when the Sharks won by 20, which meant the head-to-head line went the Sharks' way too. Seven from sixteen overall on this one, a reminder that picking the right side and picking the right story inside the game are two different jobs.

Cronulla did the things you'd expect a stronger halves and backline to do, control the ball, control the kicking game with 652 metres to 475, and cash in territory when it mattered. The Knights had the busier forwards in the collision and the sharper hands out of it, but none of that counts for much when the other side has the ball 56% of the time and knows what to do with it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 4 | 10 | 14 |
| Sharks | 16 | 18 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | Possession | **56%** |
| 66% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,702 | Run metres | **1,885** |
| 549 | Post-contact metres | **621** |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| **45** | Tackle breaks | 41 |
| **19** | Offloads | 9 |
| **88.2%** | Effective tackle % | 80.5% |
| **41** | Missed tackles | 45 |
| 16 | Errors | **10** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| 475 | Kick metres | **652** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 48, within 1 points. Sharks led 4–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 7/16 on this match. Sharks covered the 9.5-point line. The over 42.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 5 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Sharks prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 11' Try — Oregon Kaufusi (Sharks) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -8 pts
- 16' Try — Addin Fonua-Blake (Sharks) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 21' Try — Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 30' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 44' Sin Bin — James Schiller (Knights) — 4-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 46' Try — Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — 4-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 49' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 4-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 70' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 8-28 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 73' Try — Mawene Hiroti (Sharks) — 10-32 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 78' Try — James Schiller (Knights) — 14-34 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.38 (edge -7.5%) — model probability 64.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 5 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sharks are the call at 64%, but Knights stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 147 ELO points clear, 1548 to 1401. Form leans Sharks' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Knights.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Sharks by 4.8, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Sharks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sharks have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 20-18 in 2026 Round 20.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four; Knights are 2-10 at home this year.

On the ladder it's Knights 12th against Sharks 9th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 3 · Sharks 7 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 20-18 |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights at home | 2-10 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks away | 6-8 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 12th · Sharks 9th |
| Finals odds | Knights 0% · Sharks 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 19W–27L | 41% |
| Sharks | 26W–34L | 43% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Knights 19W–27L (41%) and Sharks 26W–34L (43%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 9.2pts | Avg Score | 22.6pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| -8.0pts | Avg Margin | 5.4pts |
| 1634.2m | Run Metres | 1772.8m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 384.2 | Tackles | 341.4 |
| 15.0 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 2W–3L | 9.2 |
| Sharks | 3W–2L | 22.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Sharks | 20 – 18 | Knights |
| 2025 | R26 | Sharks | 40 – 16 | Knights |
| 2024 | R24 | Sharks | 19 – 18 | Knights |
| 2023 | R26 | Knights | 32 – 6 | Sharks |
| 2023 | R12 | Sharks | 26 – 6 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the right edge: NRL's 17th-ranked right edge attack (0.6 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 11th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Schiller, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (2.17 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 2nd there (0.8 conceded/game). Key man: Nikora, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.8/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 2.17/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.4/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 7th) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.6/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 2 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 163m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.6/g | 2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 89.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 6 | 15 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 723m/g | 780m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 23.2/g | 17.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.9% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 2 | 7 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 501m/g | 539m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 92.6% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.44) -2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 30/54g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | James Schiller | WG | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (2·1·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/3g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/19g | 25/98g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 19/38g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 19/24g | 38% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 2 in 5g | 7/10g (0·1·3·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 9/7g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| 7 | Tyson Gamble | HB | no games | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/19g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/22g | 10/45g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/44g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/35g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Thomas Cant | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/11g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/33g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/32g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyrone Thompson | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jermaine McEwen | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Brodie Jones | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/37g | 6% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/2g | 24% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 2 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 4 in 6g | 11/10g (1·2·2·2·0·2·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.81 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 46' |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 6/16g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Mawene Hiroti | CE | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 2/3g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/6g | 26% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 5 in 6g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 5/9g | 4/5g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Toby Rudolf | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1401 · Sharks 1548 · ELO difference: 147 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1062 (best 1234) | 1071 (best 1270) | Sharks +10 |
| Backs | 911 (best 1048) | 1049 (best 1087) | Sharks +137 |
| Halves | 864 (best 864) | 1170 (best 1170) | Sharks +306 |
| Hooker | 1169 | 1011 | Knights +158 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Knights |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Sharks predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)