# Dolphins v Storm — NRL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 42 – 22 Storm

_Dolphins rally to outswim Storm._

Half time: 12 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 41% / Storm 59% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 18 Apr, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Josh Kerr (28'), Jack Bostock (36'), Ray Stone (45'), Connelly Lemuelu (52'), Ray Stone (60'), Kodi Nikorima (64'), Herbie Farnworth (71') · Storm: Kane Bradley (9' 1st), Xavier Coates (13' Tipped ⚡), Ryan Papenhuyzen (21' Tipped ⚡), Kane Bradley (78' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 59% | Lost |
| Dolphins | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.8 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dolphins 42–22 Storm in NRL Round 7 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm did plenty right early on. Kane Bradley crossed inside nine minutes, Xavier Coates followed three minutes later, and Ryan Papenhuyzen made it three tries in twenty minutes to push the visitors out to 16-2. It looked exactly like the side that had won four of its last five games, averaging 36.8 points a game coming in. For a stretch, Suncorp Stadium was watching the form team do what form teams do.

But the cracks were there even while Storm led. They missed 38 tackles for the game against just 25 from Dolphins, and their completion rate sat at 66% against Dolphins' 80%. Sixteen errors to eight tells the same story: Storm had the ball plenty in patches but couldn't hold onto it, and when Dolphins started getting field position back, the visitors' defence had no answer.

Dolphins clawed into that lead before the break. Josh Kerr scored in the 28th minute, then Jack Bostock crossed eight minutes later, and by half-time it was 16-12, Storm still in front but the margin nowhere near as comfortable as it had looked at the 20-minute mark.

The third quarter belonged to Dolphins. Ray Stone barged over in the 45th minute to level things at 16-16, and from there the home side didn't stop. Connelly Lemuelu scored in the 51st to put Dolphins in front for the first time, Stone bagged his second in the 59th, Kodi Nikorima added another in the 63rd, and Herbie Farnworth finished it off in the 71st. That's five tries in 26 minutes, turning a four-point deficit into a 40-16 rout.

Storm managed a consolation through Bradley's second try in the 78th minute, by which point both Trent Loiero and Kurt Donoghoe had been sin-binned. Final score: 42-22.

The underlying numbers back up what happened on the field. Dolphins ran for 1,541 metres to Storm's 1,405, broke the line five times to three, and busted 38 tackles to Storm's 25. Storm actually shaded them on post-contact metres, 537 to 510, and edged the offload count 10 to 9, small signs they weren't beaten in every collision. But territory told the bigger story: Dolphins kicked for 527 metres to Storm's 332, and held 54% of possession, enough to keep dragging Storm's line back and wearing down that leaky defence.

This one didn't fit the script. Storm went in as the form side, four wins from five, averaging 36.8 points and winning by 18 a game on average, and Alphr's model had them favoured to win by close to five points. Instead they lost by 20, and the model's projected combined score of 46 points undercooked the actual total of 64 by 18. It's now 2 wins from 16 for the model this year, a reminder that recent form and ratings only tell you so much once the ball starts bouncing the other way.

Dolphins' comeback wasn't a slow squeeze either. It was one clean second-half burst, five tries in just over 25 minutes, built off cleaner ball control and a kicking game that pinned Storm deep all night.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 12 | 30 | 42 |
| Storm | 16 | 6 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 66% |
| **1,541** | Run metres | 1,405 |
| 510 | Post-contact metres | **537** |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **38** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| 9 | Offloads | **10** |
| **87.8%** | Effective tackle % | 86.5% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 38 |
| **8** | Errors | 16 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **527** | Kick metres | 332 |

**Model Report Card**

Dolphins defied the model's 59% prediction for Storm, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 64 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 46. Dolphins trailed 12–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 42–22. The model went 2/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 17 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Kane Bradley (Storm) — 2-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 12' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 2-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 20' Try — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 2-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 28' Try — Josh Kerr (Dolphins) — 6-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 36' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 12-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 45' Try — Ray Stone (Dolphins) — 16-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 51' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 22-16 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 59' Try — Ray Stone (Dolphins) — 28-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 63' Try — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 34-16 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 71' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 40-16 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 73' Sin Bin — Trent Loiero (Storm) — 40-16 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 73' Sin Bin — Kurt Donoghoe (Dolphins) — 40-16 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 78' Try — Kane Bradley (Storm) — 42-20 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.25 (edge -19.0%) — model probability 59.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge -19.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 5 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 59%, but Dolphins stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 254 ELO points clear, 1705 to 1452. Form leans Storm's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Dolphins.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Halves Control, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with Storm, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Storm by 4.8, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 3 of the last 5 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 28-10 in 2026 Round 9.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Storm have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 14th against Storm 2nd.

Dolphins come in fresher, 8 days between games against 5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 5) | Dolphins 2 · Storm 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 28-10 |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins at home | 7-5 this season |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 14th · Storm 2nd |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 0% · Storm 100% |
| Rest gap | Dolphins 8d · Storm 5d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 11W–4L | 73% |
| Storm | 11W–4L | 73% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Dolphins 11W–4L (73%) and Storm 11W–4L (73%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Dolphins get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Storm's +0.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 36.8pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| 2.0pts | Avg Margin | 18.0pts |
| 1741.4m | Run Metres | 1668.8m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 6.6 |
| 370.6 | Tackles | 305.8 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 2W–3L | 21.6 |
| Storm | 4W–1L | 36.8 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Storm lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Dolphins | 28 – 10 | Storm |
| 2024 | R25 | Storm | 48 – 6 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R16 | Dolphins | 24 – 30 | Storm |
| 2023 | R12 | Dolphins | 16 – 24 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 11th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Coates, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.17/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 11th) | 2/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 1.67/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 12th) | 1.2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 4 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 2.8/g |
| Run Metres | 190m/g | 234m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.9% | 84.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 14 | 18 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 796m/g | 684m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.7/g | 15/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 4.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 77.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 3 | 7 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 491m/g | 525m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 9.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.5% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.31/g (lg 1.25) +5% · Centres 0.66/g (lg 0.67) -1% · 2nd Rows 0.34/g (lg 0.44) -23%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Centres 0.93/g (lg 0.67) +39% · Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 1/4g | 12/20g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/9g | 28/65g | 44% | — | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/6g | 8/16g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 19/55g | 30% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 5 | Jack Bostock | WG | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/14g | 39% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 18/73g | 18% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/18g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Daniel Saifiti | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 1/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/33g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Tom Gilbert | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/13g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Max Plath | HK | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/10g | 23% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Mark Nicholls | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 6/31g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/5g | 4/18g | 20% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/18g | 4% | — | 🏉 28' |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 5 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·1·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 9/14g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' |
| 2 | Sualauvi Faalogo | Replacement | no games | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/4g | 33% | — | — |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Grant Anderson | CE | 5 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·1) | 0/2g | 2/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 5 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 11/25g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 6/22g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 1 in 4g | 8/10g (0·1·3·0·3·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 12/18g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 59% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 1/13g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.50 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 3/10g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/6g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/13g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1452 · Storm 1705 · ELO difference: 254 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1144 (best 1232) | 1137 (best 1251) | Dolphins +7 |
| Backs | 1117 (best 1227) | 1111 (best 1189) | Dolphins +6 |
| Halves | 1123 (best 1123) | 1018 (best 1018) | Dolphins +105 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 790 | Dolphins +410 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Storm predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)