Win Probability
AI Game Review
Dolphins defied the model's 59% prediction for Storm, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 64 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 46. Dolphins trailed 12–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 42–22. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 18 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
41%
Storm
59%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 41%. Dolphins are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Halves Control, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage, but Storm counter with ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Storm carry a 254-point ELO rating advantage (1705 vs 1452). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Storm by 4.8 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.25
Lost ✗
Edge
-19.0%
Line / Spread
Storm +12.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-19.0%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | W W L L L | 21.6 |
Storm | W W W W L | 36.8 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Dolphins
18.8
Storm
Avg Margin
2.0
Dolphins
18.0
Storm
Run Metres
1741
Dolphins
1669
Storm
Line Breaks
3.8
Dolphins
6.6
Storm
Referee Indicator
BalancedTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Dolphins 7W–3L (70%) and Storm 9W–4L (69%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Storm predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -4.8
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