# Bulldogs v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 32 – 0 Rabbitohs

_Bulldogs muzzle Rabbitohs._

Half time: 20 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 71% / Rabbitohs 29% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 18 Apr, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Josh Curran (11' 1st), Max King (26'), Sitili Tupouniua (33' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Preston (43' Tipped ⚡), Bronson Xerri (69' Tipped ⚡) · Rabbitohs: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 71% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.7 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 32–0 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 7 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bulldogs beat Rabbitohs 32-0 at Accor Stadium. Take away the scoreboard for a second and the gap looks even worse: Rabbitohs missed 38 tackles to the Bulldogs' 19, which means South Sydney let a team through or around them roughly twice as often as they were let through themselves. A shutout with that kind of defensive account behind it isn't a scare that got away from them late. It's a side that was never in it.

The game was effectively done by half-time. Bulldogs led 20-0 at the break, built from three tries inside the first 33 minutes: Josh Curran opened it in the 10th, Max King made it 12-0 at 25, Sitili Tupouniua stretched it to 18-0 at 33. Euan Aitken's sin bin at 17' didn't help Rabbitohs find a foothold, and by the time Jacob Preston crossed just before the break to make it 24-0, the contest had nothing left to argue about. Bronson Xerri's try at 68' and a second sin bin, this time Marcelo Montoya for the Bulldogs at 71', were just the second half filling in the margin.

The stat sheet backs up exactly what the eye saw. Bulldogs ran 2,152 metres to 1,273 and banked 709 post-contact metres, nearly double what Rabbitohs managed through 462. They broke the line eight times. Rabbitohs broke it zero times. Eight tackle busts turned into 38 for the Bulldogs against 19 for Rabbitohs, and 19 offloads kept the ball alive when it mattered. None of that happens by accident against a system that's actually holding its shape.

Discipline and ball control told the same story from a different angle. Bulldogs completed at 82% and coughed the ball up just eight times. Rabbitohs completed at 72% and gave it away 14 times, conceding 10 penalties to the Bulldogs' six. With 61% of the ball and a completion rate ten points clear, the Bulldogs simply had more of the football and did more with it every time they had it.

Go back to the pre-match numbers and this result was flagged well before kickoff. The halves gap was the loudest signal, Bulldogs rated at 1244 against Rabbitohs' 1100, and their form lines told the same tale: Bulldogs coming in on a 5-0 last-five run averaging 24.8 points scored and just 11.6 conceded, Rabbitohs at 3-2 averaging 21.4 conceded a game. A team leaking that much points already, up against a stronger halves pairing and a heavier forward rating (1152 to 1089), was never a great watch on paper.

Alphr's model backed the Bulldogs at 71% and got the winner right, no argument there. Where it fell over was the size of it, tipping a 6.7-point margin against a 32-point actual. The model went 6 from 16 on the finer detail of this one, though it did cover the 9.5-point line and called the under on the 44.5 total correctly. Picking the winner was the easy part here. Picking just how far Rabbitohs would be run off the park was another matter entirely.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 20 | 12 | 32 |
| Rabbitohs | 0 | 0 | 0 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **61%** | Possession | 39% |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 72% |
| **2,152** | Run metres | 1,273 |
| **709** | Post-contact metres | 462 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 0 |
| **38** | Tackle breaks | 19 |
| **19** | Offloads | 4 |
| **90.0%** | Effective tackle % | 86.4% |
| **19** | Missed tackles | 38 |
| **8** | Errors | 14 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 10 |
| **636** | Kick metres | 631 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.7 but the actual margin was 32 points. Bulldogs led 20–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 6/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 9.5-point line. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 11 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Josh Curran (Bulldogs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 17' Sin Bin — Euan Aitken (Rabbitohs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 25' Try — Max King (Bulldogs) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 33' Try — Sitili Tupouniua (Bulldogs) — 18-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 42' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 24-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 68' Try — Bronson Xerri (Bulldogs) — 30-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 71' Sin Bin — Marcelo Montoya (Bulldogs) — 30-0 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.33 (edge -5.4%) — model probability 70.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 7 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 71% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 164 ELO points clear, 1613 to 1449. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Rabbitohs.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Bulldogs by 6.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 22-6 in 2026 Round 24.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Rabbitohs are 3-9 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 1st against Rabbitohs 5th.

Bulldogs come in fresher, 11 days between games against 5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 3 · Rabbitohs 7 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 22-6 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 1st · Rabbitohs 5th |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 100% · Rabbitohs 0% |
| Rest gap | Bulldogs 11d · Rabbitohs 5d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 16W–20L | 44% |
| Rabbitohs | 20W–25L | 44% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Bulldogs 16W–20L (44%) and Rabbitohs 20W–25L (44%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Bulldogs's +0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 20.2pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.4pts |
| 13.2pts | Avg Margin | -1.2pts |
| 1733.0m | Run Metres | 1573.2m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 340.0 | Tackles | 333.2 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 5W–0L | 24.8 |
| Rabbitohs | 3W–2L | 20.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Bulldogs | 6 – 22 | Rabbitohs |
| 2026 | R5 | Rabbitohs | 32 – 24 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R15 | Rabbitohs | 18 – 24 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R4 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 16 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R19 | Rabbitohs | 32 – 36 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.2 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 9th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Tracey, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 9th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 3rd there (0.6 conceded/game). Key man: Tass, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.8/g (att 12th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.4/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 0 | 3 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 148m/g | 169m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.9% | 86.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 9 | 11 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 772m/g | 668m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81% | 75.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 1 | 5 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 481m/g | 470m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.5% | 88.4% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.43/g (lg 0.26) +65% · Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Centres 0.81/g (lg 0.67) +21% · 2nd Rows 0.52/g (lg 0.44) +18% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/12g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 7/22g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 3 in 5g | 7/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/1g | 3/12g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 11/12g | 12/19g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 9/27g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 10/26g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/29g | 0% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 4/37g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | Replacement | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Josh Curran | PR | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 3/13g | 16% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 4/16g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/22g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/13g | 8/22g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/8g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' |
| 16 | Jack Todd | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 17 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 3% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 5/8g | 53% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Campbell Graham | WG | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 25/51g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Euan Aitken | CE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/14g | 5/14g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 5/17g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Isaiah Tass | WG | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 5/23g | 32% | — | — |
| 6 | Latrell Mitchell | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 12/13g | 23/40g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Cody Walker | HB | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 34/88g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/15g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Peter Mamouzelos | HK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/16g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 5/57g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Keaon Koloamatangi | 2R | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/7g | 10/41g | 20% | 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jai Arrow | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 2/31g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Lewis Dodd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Siliva Havili | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/19g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Tallis Duncan | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/14g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Davvy Moale | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/24g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1613 · Rabbitohs 1449 · ELO difference: 164 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1152 (best 1298) | 1089 (best 1214) | Bulldogs +63 |
| Backs | 953 (best 1049) | 954 (best 1136) | Rabbitohs +2 |
| Halves | 1244 (best 1244) | 1100 (best 1100) | Bulldogs +144 |
| Hooker | 1044 | 1045 | Rabbitohs +1 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)