AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 6.7 but the actual margin was 32 points. Bulldogs led 20–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
71%
Rabbitohs
29%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Bulldogs carry a 164-point ELO rating advantage (1613 vs 1449). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 6.7 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.4%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.4%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | WWWWW | 24.8 |
Rabbitohs | WWWLL | 20.2 |
Avg Conceded
11.6
Bulldogs
21.4
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
13.2
Bulldogs
-1.2
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1733
Bulldogs
1573
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
4.8
Bulldogs
4.2
Rabbitohs
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
71%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +6.7
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