NRL | Round 7

alphr.com.au

CBY
Bulldogs
VS
SOU
Rabbitohs
ACCOR STADIUM, SYDNEY • FRIDAY 18 APR, 4:05 PM

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 6.7 but the actual margin was 32 points. Bulldogs led 20–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

71%BulldogsFavourite

Bulldogs

71%

Rabbitohs

29%

AI Match Overview

Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Bulldogs carry a 164-point ELO rating advantage (1613 vs 1449). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 6.7 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @1.33

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.4%

Line / Spread

Bulldogs -9.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.4%

Total Points

Under 44.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+9.4%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Bulldogs
WWWWW
24.8
Rabbitohs
WWWLL
20.2

Avg Conceded

11.6

Bulldogs

21.4

Rabbitohs

Avg Margin

13.2

Bulldogs

-1.2

Rabbitohs

Run Metres

1733

Bulldogs

1573

Rabbitohs

Line Breaks

4.8

Bulldogs

4.2

Rabbitohs

H2H History (Last 5)Rabbitohs lead 3-2
Apr 2026CBY 24 - 32 SOU
Jun 2025CBY 24 - 18 SOU
Mar 2024CBY 16 - 20 SOU
Jul 2023CBY 36 - 32 SOU
Apr 2023CBY 16 - 50 SOU
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CBY
1613Overall1449
SOU
ELO difference: +164 in favour of Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1152Forwards1089
Best: 1298CBY +63Best: 1214
953Backs954
Best: 1049EvenBest: 1136
1244Halves1100
Best: 1244CBY +144Best: 1100
1044Hooker1045
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CBY
Stat
SOU
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
24.8pts
Avg Score
20.2pts
11.6pts
Avg Conceded
21.4pts
13.2pts
Avg Margin
-1.2pts
1733.0m
Run Metres
1573.2m
4.8
Line Breaks
4.2
340.0
Tackles
333.2
10.2
Errors
10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulldogs
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulldogs
3
Backline Quality10.0%
4
Halves Control9.0%
Bulldogs
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Bulldogs
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Bulldogs

Model Confidence

71%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +6.7

3/3 match predictions correct
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