Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.7 but the actual margin was 32 points. Bulldogs led 20–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 11 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
71%
Rabbitohs
29%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Bulldogs carry a 164-point ELO rating advantage (1613 vs 1449). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 6.7 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.4%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.4%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | W W W W W | 24.8 |
Rabbitohs | W W W L L | 20.2 |
Avg Conceded
11.6
Bulldogs
21.4
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
13.2
Bulldogs
-1.2
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1733
Bulldogs
1573
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
4.8
Bulldogs
4.2
Rabbitohs
Referee Indicator
BalancedGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Bulldogs 16W–18L (47%) and Rabbitohs 18W–24L (43%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Bulldogs's +0.6.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
71%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +6.7
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