# Storm v Warriors — NRL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 42 – 14 Warriors

_Storm put Warriors to the sword._

Half time: 36 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 76% / Warriors 24% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Sun, 13 Apr, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Xavier Coates (2' 1st Tipped ⚡), Josh King (15'), Shawn Blore (20'), Trent Loiero (24'), Harry Grant (28'), Grant Anderson (31' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Coates (59' 1st Tipped ⚡) · Warriors: Leka Halasima (54'), Rocco Berry (74' Tipped ⚡), Luke Metcalf (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 76% | Won |
| Warriors | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.8 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Storm 42–14 Warriors in NRL Round 6 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eight line breaks to two, and that's the whole story before you even get to the scoreboard. Storm ran through and around the Warriors all night, finishing 42-14 winners at AAMI Park, and by half-time it was already 36-0.

The bulk of that damage came in a brutal 28-minute stretch. Xavier Coates opened it inside two minutes, Josh King made it 10-0 by the 14th, and then Storm just kept coming: Shawn Blore in the 20th, Trent Loiero in the 23rd (three minutes after Jackson Ford was sent to the sin bin), Harry Grant in the 27th, Grant Anderson in the 30th. Six tries, nobody home at the other end. The Warriors didn't get on the board until Leka Halasima crossed in the 54th minute, and by then the contest had long since been decided.

The line break count tells you why. Storm's forward pack and outside backs were rated behind the Warriors coming in, 1041 to 1096 up front and 953 to 1022 out wide, but none of that showed up on the field. Storm ran for 1,714 metres to 1,551 and offloaded 16 times to 10, the kind of ball movement that turns a rated disadvantage into eight clean breaks. The Warriors managed two.

Completion rate mattered too. Storm held the ball better all night, 78% to 69%, and made just 12 errors to the Warriors' 14. Add 53% of the possession and 622 kick metres to the Warriors' 364, and you've got a side that controlled both the ball and the paddock for long stretches. The Warriors actually won the tackle break count, 31 to 29, and conceded fewer penalties, 3 to 6, but neither showed up where it counted.

To their credit, the Warriors didn't fold. Halasima's try in the 54th was followed by Coates completing his hat-trick four minutes later, but the visitors kept playing, adding Rocco Berry in the 74th and Luke Metcalf right at the death in the 79th. Two late tries don't rewrite a 36-0 hole, but they at least got the margin back to something respectable on paper.

Coates finished with three tries, the headline act in a Storm performance that had six different try scorers in all. That kind of spread, plus Harry Grant's involvement despite the Warriors rating the hooker position 1090 to 959 in their favour, says the individual matchups didn't play out the way the pre-match numbers suggested they might.

Alphr's model had Storm favourites at 76% and picked them by 12.8 points on a combined total of 43. The winner call was right. The margin wasn't close: Storm won by 28, more than double the predicted gap, and comfortably covered the 14.5-point line. Storm's own form line, averaging 38 points a game across their last five, was a better guide to what turned up than the head-to-head rating gap ever was. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one was a big miss on the number, dead right on the result.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 36 | 6 | 42 |
| Warriors | 0 | 14 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **78%** | Completion rate | 69% |
| **1,714** | Run metres | 1,551 |
| **486** | Post-contact metres | 457 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 29 | Tackle breaks | **31** |
| **16** | Offloads | 10 |
| **87.1%** | Effective tackle % | 86.7% |
| 31 | Missed tackles | **29** |
| **12** | Errors | 14 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| **622** | Kick metres | 364 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 76% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.8 but the actual margin was 28 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Storm covered the 14.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Storm have a 60% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 14' Try — Josh King (Storm) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 20' Try — Shawn Blore (Storm) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 22' Sin Bin — Jackson Ford (Warriors) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 23' Try — Trent Loiero (Storm) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 27' Try — Harry Grant (Storm) — 28-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 30' Try — Grant Anderson (Storm) — 34-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 54' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 36-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 58' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 40-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 74' Try — Rocco Berry (Warriors) — 42-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 79' Try — Luke Metcalf (Warriors) — 42-14 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.18 (edge -10.7%) — model probability 75.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -10.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.3%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 13 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 76% to see off Warriors. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 194 ELO points clear, 1685 to 1491.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Storm by 12.8, with the two sides combining for about 43. Storm to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Storm have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 38-14 in 2026 Round 6.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Storm 3, Warriors 3.

On the ladder it's Storm 3rd against Warriors 4th.

Warriors come in fresher, 13 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 9 · Warriors 1 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 38-14 |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm at home | 11-4 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors away | 7-5 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 3rd · Warriors 4th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Rest gap | Storm 6d · Warriors 13d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 41W–27L | 60% |
| Warriors | 13W–23L | 36% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ashley Klein officiates, Storm have won 41 of 68 games (60%), significantly stronger than Warriors's 13 from 36 (36%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 38.0pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Margin | 2.0pts |
| 1645.0m | Run Metres | 1831.6m |
| 6.8 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 300.6 | Tackles | 338.2 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 8.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 4W–1L | 38.0 |
| Warriors | 4W–1L | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Storm | 14 – 38 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R15 | Warriors | 24 – 38 | Storm |
| 2024 | R2 | Storm | 30 – 26 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R8 | Storm | 30 – 22 | Warriors |
| 2022 | R20 | Warriors | 12 – 24 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (3 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 6th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Papenhuyzen, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.25 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 7th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Leiataua, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.75/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.25/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) | 1.25/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 0 | 5 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 239m/g | 232m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 86.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 13 | 7 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 679m/g | 692m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 16.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.3/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.4% | 83.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 0 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 519m/g | 527m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.8% | 88.4% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.22) +9% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.44) +0% · Centres 0.64/g (lg 0.67) -4%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.33/g (lg 1.25) +6% · Centres 0.66/g (lg 0.67) -1% · Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.11) -18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 5 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·2·1·1·1) | 6/5g | 32/37g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.58 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Grant Anderson | WG | 4 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3) | 1/3g | 4/15g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 31' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/13g | 23% | — | — |
| 4 | Moses Leo | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 10/7g | 32/29g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 53% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' 59' |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/15g | 33/90g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 1 in 3g | 8/10g (0·0·1·3·0·3·0·1·0·0) | 7/11g | 26/61g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 1 in 4g | 7/10g (0·1·1·3·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 16/39g | 38% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 5/36g | 14% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/14g | 6% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 8/24g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/36g | 4% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/30g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/44g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Bronson Garlick | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 6% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Taine Tuaupiki | WG | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 3 | Rocco Berry | CE | no games | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 22% | 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| 4 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Adam Pompey | WG | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Bunty Afoa | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Jackson Ford | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | 🏉 54' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1685 · Warriors 1491 · ELO difference: 194 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1041 (best 1280) | 1096 (best 1331) | Warriors +55 |
| Backs | 953 (best 1116) | 1022 (best 1101) | Warriors +69 |
| Halves | 1160 (best 1160) | 1191 (best 1191) | Warriors +31 |
| Hooker | 959 | 1090 | Warriors +131 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Storm predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)