Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 76% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.8 but the actual margin was 28 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 12 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Storm's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Storm have a 62% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
76%
Warriors
24%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warriors. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Storm carry a 194-point ELO rating advantage (1685 vs 1491). The margin model predicts Storm by 12.8 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.18
Winner ✓
Edge
-10.7%
Line / Spread
Storm -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-10.7%
Total Points
Under 53.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+27.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W W W W L | 38.0 |
Warriors | W W W W L | 22.8 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Storm
20.8
Warriors
Avg Margin
18.4
Storm
2.0
Warriors
Run Metres
1645
Storm
1832
Warriors
Line Breaks
6.8
Storm
4.4
Warriors
Referee Indicator
Favours StormAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Ashley Klein officiates, Storm have won 40 of 65 games (62%), significantly stronger than Warriors's 13 from 35 (37%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
76%
Storm predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +12.8
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