# Sharks v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 24 – 18 Sea Eagles

_Sharks survive a scare against Sea Eagles._

Half time: 8 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 66% / Sea Eagles 34% · Optus Stadium, Perth · Sat, 12 Apr, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Samuel Stonestreet (35' 1st Tipped 🎯), Samuel Stonestreet (39' 1st Tipped 🎯), William Kennedy (47'), Mawene Hiroti (63' Tipped ⚡), Thomas Hazelton (75') · Sea Eagles: Clayton Faulalo (52'), Luke Brooks (56'), Daly Cherry-Evans (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 66% | Won |
| Sea Eagles | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sharks 24–18 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 6 at Optus Stadium, Perth. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eight-nil at the break, and the second half spent most of its time trying to argue with that scoreline. It never quite managed it.

Samuel Stonestreet did the early damage, scoring in the 34th and again in the 39th minute to put the Sharks up 8-0 at the main break. Three minutes into the second half William Kennedy made it 12-0, and for a stretch it looked like the Sharks might run away with it. They didn't get the chance. The Sea Eagles hit back through Clayton Faulalo in the 51st and Luke Brooks in the 56th to close it to 14-10, turning a laugher into an actual contest.

The Sharks had an answer every time the Sea Eagles found one. Mawene Hiroti restored some breathing room at 18-12 in the 63rd, Thomas Hazelton stretched it to 22-12 in the 74th, and even when Daly Cherry-Evans got his side back within six at 24-18 with two minutes left, there wasn't enough time left to find another one. Final score: Sharks 24, Sea Eagles 18, at Optus Stadium.

The stat sheet explains why the Sharks kept having answers. Twelve offloads to three is a big gap, and that's the kind of number that shows up as quick recycles rather than raw metres. The Sharks broke tackles 31 times to 23 and cracked the line five times to three, and both of those numbers matter more in a game like this than metres gained. The Sea Eagles actually ran for more, 1,765 metres to 1,668, but metres without line breaks or go-forward just means carrying the ball back to where you started.

Defensively, the gap was just as telling. The Sharks made their tackles at 92.8 per cent, missing only 23 all game. The Sea Eagles missed 31 and completed at 87 per cent, and against a side offloading as often as the Sharks did, missed tackles turn into points quickly. That's roughly the shape of how Faulalo and Brooks got theirs: the Sea Eagles hanging on well enough, but leaking just enough in defence to let the margin sit where the Sharks needed it.

Discipline played its part too. The Sharks gave away four penalties to the Sea Eagles' seven, which is a rough return for a losing side that needed every extra possession going. The Sea Eagles were the tidier side with ball in hand, 10 errors to 12, and completed marginally higher as well, 81 per cent to 80. Clean footy wasn't enough on its own when the collisions and the penalty count both ran the other way.

Possession sat with the Sharks too, 52 per cent to 48, and their kicking game gained more ground, 605 metres to 544. Coming in, the Sea Eagles actually had the better recent form, three wins from five against the Sharks' two, and the stronger scoring average. The ratings had Manly slightly ahead as well, 1538 to 1523. Alphr's model still gave the Sharks a 66 per cent chance and picked them by 3.9 points. The actual margin was six, the total finished at 42 against a projected 46, and the Sharks covered the 5.5-point line. Call that one job done.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 8 | 16 | 24 |
| Sea Eagles | 0 | 18 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 80% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| 1,668 | Run metres | **1,765** |
| **461** | Post-contact metres | 451 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **31** | Tackle breaks | 23 |
| **12** | Offloads | 3 |
| **92.8%** | Effective tackle % | 87.0% |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 31 |
| 12 | Errors | **10** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **605** | Kick metres | 544 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sharks by 3.9 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 42, within 4 points. The model went 6/16 on this match. Sharks covered the 5.5-point line. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sharks's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Sharks have a 70% win rate under this referee. Sharks's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 34' Try — Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 39' Try — Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 46' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 51' Try — Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -9 pts
- 56' Try — Luke Brooks (Sea Eagles) — 14-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 63' Try — Mawene Hiroti (Sharks) — 18-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 74' Try — Thomas Hazelton (Sharks) — 22-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 78' Try — Daly Cherry-Evans (Sea Eagles) — 24-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.50 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 66.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 4 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 66% to see off Sea Eagles. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Sharks.

On paper Sea Eagles shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Sharks, which says Forward Pack and Referee Tendency carry the most weight. The margin model has Sharks by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Sharks to win, not to win big.

Sharks have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 48-12 in 2026 Round 21.

Sharks are 11-2 at home this year. Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Sharks 10th against Sea Eagles 6th.

Sharks come in fresher, 8 days between games against 5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 8 · Sea Eagles 2 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 48-12 |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks at home | 11-2 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 10th · Sea Eagles 6th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Rest gap | Sharks 8d · Sea Eagles 5d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 30W–13L | 70% |
| Sea Eagles | 17W–24L | 41% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Sharks have won 30 of 43 games (70%), significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 17 from 41 (41%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.2pts | Avg Score | 29.6pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| 3.0pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 1765.4m | Run Metres | 1708.2m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 7.2 |
| 349.6 | Tackles | 298.0 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 2W–3L | 22.2 |
| Sea Eagles | 3W–2L | 29.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Sea Eagles | 12 – 48 | Sharks |
| 2026 | R13 | Sharks | 28 – 22 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R10 | Sea Eagles | 14 – 30 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R27 | Sea Eagles | 20 – 40 | Sharks |
| 2023 | R21 | Sharks | 26 – 30 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.4 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 12th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Nikora, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 14th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Koula, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.4/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.6/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 0.8/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.8/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 0.8/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.6/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 1 | 2 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 164m/g | 195m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.6/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 86.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 9 | 15 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 787m/g | 680m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19/g | 12.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 4.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.6% | 75.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 5 | 2 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 561m/g | 543m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 9.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 88.5% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Fullbacks 0.55/g (lg 0.44) +25% · 2nd Rows 0.51/g (lg 0.44) +16%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27% · Centres 0.75/g (lg 0.67) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 2 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 2 in 5g | 9/10g (0·1·2·2·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 35' 39' |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Mawene Hiroti | CE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 5 in 5g | 8/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 3/9g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Toby Rudolf | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 75' |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehi Hopoate | FB | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 5 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·4·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Clayton Faulalo | WG | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 8 | Josh Aloiai | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sea Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1538 vs 1523), but the market favours Sharks (@1.50). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1523 · Sea Eagles 1538 · ELO difference: 15 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1105 (best 1300) | 1083 (best 1233) | Sharks +22 |
| Backs | 977 (best 1067) | 1099 (best 1191) | Sea Eagles +122 |
| Halves | 1067 (best 1067) | 1080 (best 1080) | Sea Eagles +13 |
| Hooker | 961 | 782 | Sharks +179 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sharks |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Sharks predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)