Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sharks by 3.9 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 42, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sharks's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Sharks have a 71% win rate under this referee. Sharks's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sharks
66%
Sea Eagles
34%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sea Eagles. Sea Eagles are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate, but Sharks counter with Forward Pack and Halves Control which tips the scales. Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 3.9 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Sharks -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | W W L L L | 22.2 |
Sea Eagles | W W W L L | 29.6 |
Avg Conceded
19.2
Sharks
24.0
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
3.0
Sharks
5.6
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1765
Sharks
1708
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
5.2
Sharks
7.2
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Sharks have won 30 of 42 games (71%), significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 16 from 38 (42%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Sharks get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Sea Eagles's -0.8. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sea Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1538 vs 1523), but the market favours Sharks (@1.50).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Sharks predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +3.9
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