# Rabbitohs v Cowboys — NRL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 16 – 24 Cowboys

_Cowboys round up Rabbitohs._

Half time: 4 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 46% / Cowboys 54% · Optus Stadium, Perth · Sat, 12 Apr, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Euan Aitken (22' 1st), Jai Arrow (43'), Jye Gray (72' Tipped ⚡) · Cowboys: Murray Taulagi (35' Tipped ⚡), Sam McIntyre (57'), Jaxon Purdue (63' Tipped ⚡), Jaxon Purdue (67' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 54% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.1 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Rabbitohs 16–24 Cowboys in NRL Round 6 at Optus Stadium, Perth. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve minutes flipped this game. Sam McIntyre's try in the 56th had the scores locked at 10-10, and for a moment it looked like Rabbitohs might ride that momentum home. Instead Jaxon Purdue crossed twice in the space of five minutes, 62' and 67', and suddenly Cowboys were out to 20-10 with the contest all but decided.

Final score: Cowboys 24, Rabbitohs 16. Jye Gray got one back for the home side in the 71st to make it 14-22, and a Sean Keppie sin bin five minutes later did the Rabbitohs no favours, but the damage from that Purdue burst was already done. Cowboys led 6-4 at the break, a tight enough margin, and turned it into a comfortable buffer in the second half.

The shape of the scoring tells its own story. Euan Aitken opened it for Rabbitohs in the 21st, Murray Taulagi levelled it up for Cowboys before half-time, then Jai Arrow's try in the 43rd had the home crowd thinking they might have this. McIntyre's try squared it again at 10-10. From there it was all Cowboys, Purdue twice, and the game was gone.

The stat sheet backs up exactly what the scoreboard showed. Cowboys ran for 1,959 metres to 1,547, and that extra go-forward showed up where it matters most, 669 post-contact metres to 518. They broke the line five times to four and busted 28 tackles to Rabbitohs's 17. That's not a small gap. When one side is that much harder to bring down, the other side's defensive line starts to fray, and Rabbitohs missed 28 tackles for the game against just 17 from Cowboys. Possession sat with Cowboys too, 53% to 47%, which gave them more chances to apply that pressure.

Rabbitohs did have an edge somewhere: 738 kick metres to 639, so they controlled territory reasonably well with the boot. Problem is territory doesn't help much if you can't hold your line when the ball comes back the other way.

Purdue's double was the difference on paper, but the positional numbers hint at why Cowboys had the class to find it. Cowboys came in rated higher across the backs (1083 to 969), halves (1236 to 1144) and hooker (1015 to 853), and it was the backline that did the damage with Purdue, Taulagi and McIntyre all crossing. Rabbitohs's forward pack rating was marginally ahead, 1114 to 1108, but that wasn't enough to offset the gap out wide.

It's a mild form upset in one sense. Rabbitohs came in with four wins from their last five to Cowboys's two, and a better average margin, 0.8 to minus 10. But recent form isn't everything, and Cowboys's underlying rating (1504 to 1474) had them favoured before a ball was kicked.

Alphr's model backed Cowboys at 54% and picked them by 4.1 points. They won by 8, so the lean was right even if the margin ran over. The total score prediction of 40 landed bang on the actual total, and the under 49.5 call came in too. Cowboys covering the 1.5-point line rounded out a clean night for the model, which finished 6 from 16 markets on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 4 | 12 | 16 |
| Cowboys | 6 | 18 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | 75% |
| 1,547 | Run metres | **1,959** |
| 518 | Post-contact metres | **669** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 17 | Tackle breaks | **28** |
| 8 | Offloads | 8 |
| 90.5% | Effective tackle % | **91.1%** |
| 28 | Missed tackles | **17** |
| 13 | Errors | 13 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **738** | Kick metres | 639 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 54% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Cowboys by 4.1 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 40, within 0 points. The model went 6/16 on this match. Cowboys covered the 1.5-point line. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 7 points below Todd Smith's career average of 47. Cowboys's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Cowboys have a 47% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 21' Try — Euan Aitken (Rabbitohs) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 35' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 4-6 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 43' Try — Jai Arrow (Rabbitohs) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 56' Try — Sam McIntyre (Cowboys) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 62' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 10-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 67' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 10-20 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 71' Try — Jye Gray (Rabbitohs) — 14-22 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 76' Sin Bin — Sean Keppie (Rabbitohs) — 14-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.85 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 53.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +25.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 4 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Cowboys are the call at 54%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Cowboys sit 31 ELO points clear, 1504 to 1474. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Cowboys.

Cowboys own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Cowboys by 4.1, with the two sides combining for about 40. Lean Cowboys, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Rabbitohs have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 30-18 in 2026 Round 12.

Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Rabbitohs 3, Cowboys 3.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 5th against Cowboys 13th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 6 · Cowboys 4 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 30-18 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 6-6 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 5th · Cowboys 13th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 0% · Cowboys 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cowboys

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 5W–9L | 36% |
| Cowboys | 7W–8L | 47% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Cowboys hold a 11-point edge: 7W–8L (47%) vs Rabbitohs's 5W–9L (36%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Cowboys get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Rabbitohs's -1.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.2pts | Avg Score | 18.4pts |
| 19.4pts | Avg Conceded | 28.4pts |
| 0.8pts | Avg Margin | -10.0pts |
| 1602.0m | Run Metres | 1610.8m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 332.6 | Tackles | 361.6 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 4W–1L | 20.2 |
| Cowboys | 2W–3L | 18.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Cowboys | 30 – 18 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R11 | Rabbitohs | 22 – 28 | Cowboys |
| 2023 | R17 | Rabbitohs | 6 – 31 | Cowboys |
| 2022 | R24 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 10 | Cowboys |
| 2021 | R17 | Rabbitohs | 46 – 18 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.8 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 8th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Gray, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the middle: NRL's 11th-ranked middle attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 10th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Clifford, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.8/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 2/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.8/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 10th) | 1.2/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.8/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.8/g (def 7th) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 6 | 3 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 161m/g | 174m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 86.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 9 | 12 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 666m/g | 691m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 15.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 71.8% | 77.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 3 | 0 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 490m/g | 429m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.29/g (lg 0.16) +81% · Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Five-Eighths 0.31/g (lg 0.26) +19%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.43/g (lg 0.26) +65% · Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·2·2·0·1) | 10/15g | 1/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.81 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Euan Aitken | CE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/14g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/17g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Isaiah Tass | WG | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 6 | Latrell Mitchell | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 5/9g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jayden Sullivan | HB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Peter Mamouzelos | HK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 10 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Keaon Koloamatangi | 2R | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jai Arrow | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 4% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Siliva Havili | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Tallis Duncan | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Davvy Moale | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 63' 67' |
| 4 | Viliami Vailea | CE | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 4 in 5g | 8/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| 6 | Tom Dearden | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Clifford | HB | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai O'Donnell | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam McIntyre | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 15 | Jeremiah Nanai | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1474 · Cowboys 1504 · ELO difference: 31 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1114 (best 1255) | 1108 (best 1219) | Rabbitohs +6 |
| Backs | 969 (best 1119) | 1083 (best 1200) | Cowboys +115 |
| Halves | 1144 (best 1144) | 1236 (best 1236) | Cowboys +92 |
| Hooker | 853 | 1015 | Cowboys +162 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Cowboys |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Cowboys |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Cowboys predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)