Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 54% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Cowboys by 4.1 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 40, within 0 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 6 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Cowboys's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Cowboys have a 50% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
46%
Cowboys
54%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Cowboys carry a 31-point ELO rating advantage (1504 vs 1474). Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 4.1 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.85
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.5%
Line / Spread
Cowboys +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.5%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+25.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | W W W W L | 20.2 |
Cowboys | W W L L L | 18.4 |
Avg Conceded
19.4
Rabbitohs
28.4
Cowboys
Avg Margin
0.8
Rabbitohs
-10.0
Cowboys
Run Metres
1602
Rabbitohs
1611
Cowboys
Line Breaks
3.8
Rabbitohs
4.0
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours CowboysTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Cowboys hold a 8-point edge: 7W–7L (50%) vs Rabbitohs's 5W–7L (42%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Cowboys get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Rabbitohs's -0.8.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Cowboys predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: -4.1
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