# Knights v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 4 – 20 Wests Tigers

_Wests Tigers hunt down Knights._

Half time: 0 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 67% / Wests Tigers 33% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sun, 13 Apr, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Fletcher Sharpe (79' Tipped ⚡) · Wests Tigers: Sunia Turuva (19' 1st Tipped 🎯), Starford To'a (27' Tipped ⚡), Jahream Bula (33' Tipped ⚡), Adam Doueihi (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 67% | Lost |
| Wests Tigers | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.5 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Knights 4–20 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 6 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen minutes shaped this one, and none of them belonged to Newcastle. Sunia Turuva opened the account in the 18th minute, Starford To'a followed it up in the 27th, and Jahream Bula piled on a third in the 32nd. By half-time it was 14-0 to Wests Tigers, and the Knights hadn't so much as troubled the scoreboard.

The final score read 20-4, but really the match was decided in that first-half burst. Three tries in fourteen minutes is the kind of thing you don't claw back against a side holding 57% of the footy, and Newcastle never found a way to wrestle it away.

It got worse before it got better for the home side. Dane Gagai and Starford To'a were both sent to the bin in the 52nd minute, and six minutes later Adam Doueihi crossed to push it out to 20-0. Fletcher Sharpe's try in the 79th was academic, a bit of respectability restored with the game long gone.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard suggests. Wests Tigers ran for 1,975 metres to the Knights' 1,498, and won the post-contact battle 662 to 482, numbers that point to a forward pack getting over the advantage line and staying there. That tracks with the pre-match ratings, where Wests Tigers held a 990 to Newcastle's 1095 on paper but still found more go-forward when it counted. Two line breaks to one and 32 tackle breaks to 29 tell the same story in miniature: territory turned into points.

Newcastle actually completed at a better clip, 67% to 78%, and made fewer errors, 15 to 16. Cleaner with the ball, sure, but it didn't matter much when the other side was doing more with less possession. Effective tackle percentage favoured the Knights too, 88.3% to 85.0%, yet they still missed more tackles overall, 32 to 29, and that gap showed up in exactly the passages where Wests Tigers built their lead.

Discipline played its part as well. The Knights conceded six penalties to Wests Tigers' four, cheap territory handed over against a side that had already shown it could turn field position into tries inside a quarter of an hour.

This form line made a bit more sense of it in hindsight. Wests Tigers came in averaging 23.6 points a game over their last five with a positive margin of 2.4, while Newcastle were averaging just 11.6 and sitting at minus 7.2. The model still had Newcastle as 3.5-point favourites and gave them a 67% chance, expecting a combined total near 41. Instead Wests Tigers won by 16 and the total landed at 24, seventeen points under the projection. A clear miss on the winner and the margin, though the under on 44.5 came in exactly as tipped.

For Newcastle, the honest version is that they were tidy without the ball and undone by three tries in one half they never looked like answering. Wests Tigers didn't need the ball as often, they just made more of it when they had it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Wests Tigers | 14 | 6 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 43% | Possession | **57%** |
| 67% | Completion rate | **78%** |
| 1,498 | Run metres | **1,975** |
| 482 | Post-contact metres | **662** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **2** |
| 29 | Tackle breaks | **32** |
| **14** | Offloads | 12 |
| **88.3%** | Effective tackle % | 85.0% |
| 32 | Missed tackles | **29** |
| **15** | Errors | 16 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 536 | Kick metres | **538** |

**Model Report Card**

Wests Tigers defied the model's 67% prediction for Knights, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.5 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 24 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 41. The model went 6/16 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 18 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Wests Tigers bucked the trend, Knights historically win 50% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Wests Tigers prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 18' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 27' Try — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 32' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 52' Sin Bin — Dane Gagai (Knights) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 52' Sin Bin — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 58' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 0-20 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 79' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 4-20 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.47 (edge +12.3%) — model probability 67.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Knights by 4 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Knights here: 67% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Knights sit 76 ELO points clear, 1442 to 1365.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Knights by 3.5, with the two sides combining for about 41. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Knights to win, not to win big.

Knights have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 12-6 in 2026 Round 17.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four; Knights are 2-10 at home this year. Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Knights 9th against Wests Tigers 11th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 8 · Wests Tigers 2 |
| Last meeting | Knights 12-6 |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights at home | 2-10 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 9th · Wests Tigers 11th |
| Finals odds | Knights 0% · Wests Tigers 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Knights

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 18W–18L | 50% |
| Wests Tigers | 11W–28L | 28% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Knights have won 18 of 36 games (50%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 11 from 39 (28%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Knights get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Wests Tigers's -0.6. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 11.6pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 18.8pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -7.2pts | Avg Margin | 2.4pts |
| 1703.0m | Run Metres | 1635.6m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 390.6 | Tackles | 321.2 |
| 13.6 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 2W–3L | 11.6 |
| Wests Tigers | 2W–3L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Knights | 12 – 6 | Wests Tigers |
| 2026 | R6 | Wests Tigers | 42 – 22 | Knights |
| 2025 | R1 | Wests Tigers | 8 – 10 | Knights |
| 2024 | R23 | Knights | 34 – 18 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R10 | Wests Tigers | 14 – 20 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 8th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Best, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the middle: NRL's 11th-ranked middle attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 8th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Koroisau, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.4/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 0.25/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 8th) | 1.2/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.6/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.75/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.25/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.4/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 2 | 2 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 190m/g | 223m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.5/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86% | 80.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 2 | 14 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 713m/g | 637m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 24.5/g | 14/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.5% | 78.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 2 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 525m/g | 552m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 90.6% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.26) +38% · Wingers 1.7/g (lg 1.25) +36% · Fullbacks 0.58/g (lg 0.44) +32%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.44) -5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 30/53g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Kyle McCarthy | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 9/22g | 25/97g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/8g | 19/37g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 19/23g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 10/10g (4·0·1·3·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 5/2g | 8/6g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| 7 | Phoenix Crossland | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 6/43g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Brodie Jones | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/36g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jayden Brailey | HK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 3/31g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/34g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Thomas Cant | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Frizell | LK | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/21g | 10/44g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Matthew Arthur | INT | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyrone Thompson | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Jermaine McEwen | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Mat Croker | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/32g | 6% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 0 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 3/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 6 in 5g | 9/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·3·2·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 19' |
| 3 | Adam Doueihi | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 2/4g | 24% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 4 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/4g | 6/11g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Galvin | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Jarome Luai | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/7g | 26% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Bird | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 2/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Sione Fainu | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1442 · Wests Tigers 1365 · ELO difference: 76 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1095 (best 1253) | 990 (best 1275) | Knights +105 |
| Backs | 1040 (best 1111) | 1032 (best 1124) | Knights +8 |
| Halves | 1036 (best 1036) | 1062 (best 1062) | Wests Tigers +25 |
| Hooker | 737 | 880 | Wests Tigers +143 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Knights |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Knights predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)