Win Probability
AI Game Review
Wests Tigers defied the model's 67% prediction for Knights, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.5 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 24 points came in 17 points lower than the predicted 41. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 18 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Wests Tigers bucked the trend, Knights historically win 47% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Wests Tigers prevailed. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
67%
Wests Tigers
33%
AI Match Overview
Knights are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Knights ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Knights carry a 76-point ELO rating advantage (1442 vs 1365). The margin model predicts Knights by 3.5 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Knights to Win @1.47
Lost ✗
Edge
+12.3%
Line / Spread
Knights -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+12.3%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | W W L L L | 11.6 |
Wests Tigers | W W L L L | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
18.8
Knights
21.2
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
-7.2
Knights
2.4
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1703
Knights
1636
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
4.6
Knights
4.4
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours KnightsGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Knights have won 16 of 34 games (47%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 11 from 39 (28%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Knights predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +3.5
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