AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 12 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Raiders's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend — Raiders have a 100% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 1.4 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 62 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 42. Raiders led 6–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Eels
46%
Raiders
54%
AI Match Overview
Raiders hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Raiders ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Raiders carry a 133-point ELO rating advantage (1480 vs 1347). Recent form favours Raiders with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Eels. The margin model predicts Raiders by 1.4 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-15.9%
Line / Spread
Raiders +5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-15.9%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WLLLL | 13.4 |
Raiders | WWWLL | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
30.4
Eels
24.0
Raiders
Avg Margin
-17.0
Eels
-0.4
Raiders
Run Metres
1548
Eels
1555
Raiders
Line Breaks
3.6
Eels
4.8
Raiders
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Raiders have won 4 of 4 games (100%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Eels's 4 from 8 (50%). That's a 50‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 49.9 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Eels an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 4 games for Raiders — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Raiders predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: -1.4
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