# Eels v Raiders — NRL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 12 – 50 Raiders

_Raiders run riot over Eels._

Half time: 6 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 46% / Raiders 54% · TIO Stadium, Darwin · Sat, 12 Apr, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Dylan Brown (14'), Josh Addo-Carr (50' Tipped ⚡) · Raiders: Joseph Tapine (6' 1st), Ethan Strange (19'), Hudson Young (23' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Timoko (39'), Hudson Young (57' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Savage (65' Tipped ⚡), Matty Nicholson (75' Tipped ⚡), Sebastian Kris (77' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 54% | Won |
| Eels | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.4 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Eels 12–50 Raiders in NRL Round 6 at TIO Stadium, Darwin. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-five missed tackles. That's the number that sits at the bottom of the Eels' defensive ledger, more than double the Raiders' 21, and it explains most of the 50-12 damage Canberra did at TIO Stadium.

Joseph Tapine got the Raiders going inside six minutes, and Dylan Brown hit back for the Eels seven minutes later to make it 4-6. That was as close as it got. Ethan Strange and Hudson Young crossed either side of the 20-minute mark, Matthew Timoko added another before the break, and Canberra walked to halftime up 24-6. Josh Addo-Carr got the Eels within striking distance at 10-24 early in the second half, but Hudson Young's second, a penalty try to Xavier Savage, and further tries to Matty Nicholson and Sebastian Kris turned a competitive scoreline into a rout.

The gap in the middle told the story all day. Canberra ran for 2,090 metres to the Eels' 1,393, and 715 of those came after contact, well clear of Parramatta's 467. Add 45 tackle breaks to the Eels' 21 and 8 line breaks to 3, and you've got a forward pack and backline that simply kept finding grass. The Raiders' forwards rated 1141 against the Eels' 1112 coming in, and on this evidence that edge was doing real work at the collision.

Ball control mattered just as much. The Raiders completed at 88% against the Eels' 66%, coughing the ball up only 8 times to Parramatta's 16. With 56% of possession as well, Canberra simply had more chances and wasted fewer of them, which is a brutal combination when the other side is missing one tackle in every six or seven attempts.

The hooker numbers pre-match hinted at where a chunk of that structure came from, Canberra rated 1200 in that spot against Parramatta's 796, and a ruck platform that lopsided tends to show up in exactly the kind of go-forward the Raiders got all night.

Parramatta's form line read poorly walking in, one win from five with an average margin of minus 17, and nothing here bucked that trend. Their two tries, to Brown and Addo-Carr, were more about individual moments than any sustained pressure, and an error count of 16 against Canberra's 8 meant they were forever defending off the back foot.

Alphr's model had Canberra as 54% favourites and picked the right team, but the margin read was well off, tipping the Raiders by 1.4 points on a projected 42-point total. The Raiders won by 38, and the game produced 62 points, 20 more than forecast. Canberra covered the 5.5-point line with ease, and the model finished 7 from 16 on the match markers. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one's filed under the misses on margin.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Raiders | 24 | 26 | 50 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | Possession | **56%** |
| 66% | Completion rate | **88%** |
| 1,393 | Run metres | **2,090** |
| 467 | Post-contact metres | **715** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 21 | Tackle breaks | **45** |
| 10 | Offloads | **14** |
| 84.8% | Effective tackle % | **87.4%** |
| 45 | Missed tackles | **21** |
| 16 | Errors | **8** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 533 | Kick metres | **598** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.4 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 62 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 42. Raiders led 6–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 7/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 5.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 12 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Raiders's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Raiders have a 100% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Joseph Tapine (Raiders) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 13' Try — Dylan Brown (Eels) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 19' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 23' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 38' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 6-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 49' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 10-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 57' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 12-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 64' Penalty Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 12-36 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 74' Try — Matty Nicholson (Raiders) — 12-42 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 77' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 12-48 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.50 (edge -15.9%) — model probability 54.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -15.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.3%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 54%, but Eels stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 133 ELO points clear, 1480 to 1347. Form leans Raiders' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Eels.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Raiders by 1.4, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Eels 17th against Raiders 7th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 5 · Raiders 5 |
| Last meeting | Eels 15-12 |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 17th · Raiders 7th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Raiders 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 4W–6L | 40% |
| Raiders | 6W–0L | 100% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Raiders have won 6 of 6 games (100%), significantly stronger than Eels's 4 from 10 (40%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Raiders).

Eels get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Raiders's +0.0.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 13.4pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| -17.0pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 1548.0m | Run Metres | 1555.4m |
| 3.6 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 337.2 | Tackles | 375.8 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 1W–4L | 13.4 |
| Raiders | 3W–2L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Eels | 15 – 12 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R20 | Raiders | 40 – 16 | Eels |
| 2024 | R5 | Raiders | 41 – 8 | Eels |
| 2023 | R11 | Raiders | 26 – 18 | Eels |
| 2022 | R27 | Eels | 40 – 4 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the left edge: NRL's 16th-ranked left edge attack (0.6 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (2.6 conceded/game). Key man: Addo-Carr, 1 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 13th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Kris, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.6/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 13th (weak)) | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 2.6/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.6/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.8/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.4/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 3 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 157m/g | 145m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 89.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 19 | 11 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 762m/g | 660m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.4/g | 19.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77% | 77% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 8 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 431m/g | 544m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.4/g | 12.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.16) +63% · Centres 0.96/g (lg 0.67) +43% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36%
**Who scores on Eels** — Hookers 0.23/g (lg 0.14) +64% · Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55% · Fullbacks 0.66/g (lg 0.44) +50%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 2 in 5g | 2/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (0·2·2·0·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 5/16g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 2 in 5g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 34% | — | — |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 1/5g | 18% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 7 | Dean Hawkins | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Shaun Lane | 2R | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Luca Moretti | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Charlie Guymer | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/6g (0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 5/7g | 1/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 3 in 4g | 8/10g (0·1·0·2·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 5% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/15g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 57' |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | 2R | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (2·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1347 · Raiders 1480 · ELO difference: 133 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1112 (best 1280) | 1141 (best 1300) | Raiders +29 |
| Backs | 1000 (best 1102) | 948 (best 1026) | Eels +53 |
| Halves | 1068 (best 1068) | 1121 (best 1121) | Raiders +53 |
| Hooker | 796 | 1200 | Raiders +404 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Eels |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Raiders predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)