# Dragons v Titans — NRL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 38 – 16 Titans

_Dragons scorch Titans._

Half time: 24 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 61% / Titans 39% · WIN Stadium, Wollongong · Fri, 11 Apr, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Christian Tuipulotu (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Valentine Holmes (32' Tipped ⚡), Tyrell Sloan (36' Tipped ⚡), Kyle Flanagan (38'), Christian Tuipulotu (42' 1st Tipped 🎯), Tyrell Sloan (60' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Egan (72') · Titans: Brian Kelly (17'), Phillip Sami (61' Tipped ⚡), AJ Brimson (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 61% | Won |
| Titans | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.7 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dragons 38–16 Titans in NRL Round 6 at WIN Stadium, Wollongong. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nine line breaks to three. That's the number that explains Dragons 38, Titans 16 at WIN Stadium, and everything else in the stat sheet just fills in the detail around it.

Christian Tuipulotu got it started in the 9th minute, and by the time he'd doubled up in the 42nd, the Dragons had put on five tries in a stretch that took the score from 4-4 to 28-4. Valentine Holmes, Tyrell Sloan and Kyle Flanagan all crossed in that same window, and by half-time it was 24-4. The Titans' only response in that half came from Brian Kelly in the 16th, and after that the Dragons simply kept finding space nobody else could.

The halves matchup on paper had Titans well clear, 1294 to 862, and their kicking numbers backed that pedigree up. They out-kicked the Dragons for territory, 537 metres to 379, and gave away fewer penalties, 5 to 7. None of it mattered much. Territory and discipline are only useful if you can turn them into points, and the Titans couldn't get go-forward to save themselves once the Dragons forwards took hold.

That's where the game was actually decided. Dragons ran for 2,008 metres to the Titans' 1,604, and their post-contact number, 717, tells you the pack was getting over the advantage line and dragging tacklers with it. The Titans had the tackle-bust edge, 36 to 33, but busting a tackle only counts if you've got support running the right lines, and the Dragons' 9 line breaks against 3 says who had that support on the day.

Ball control mattered too, just not as much as you'd think given how close it was. Dragons completed at 72% to the Titans' 75%, and coughed up 12 errors to 13, both close enough to call even. What wasn't even was what each side did with the ball they held, and with 53% possession the Dragons simply got more shots at converting pressure into points.

Sloan finished with two tries either side of that 61st-minute response from Phillip Sami, and Dylan Egan added a fourth-quarter try in the 72nd to push it to 38-10 before Brimson got one back late for the Titans. Brock Gray's sin bin in the 66th didn't help a Titans side already chasing a scoreboard that had gotten away from them an hour earlier.

Form lines going in had these two close, Dragons averaging 20.8 points a game, Titans 20.4, with the Titans actually the more in-form side on wins, 2 from their last 5 to the Dragons' 1. None of that showed up here. Alphr's model backed the Dragons at 61% and got the winner right, but the margin call of 4.7 points wasn't close to the 22 that landed. Sometimes the pick's right for reasons the number crunching hadn't quite priced in.

Dragons cover the 4.5, easily, and head off with a forward performance that did the job the ratings suggested the Titans pack should have. Titans will have questions about how a halves advantage that big produced so little when it counted.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 24 | 14 | 38 |
| Titans | 4 | 12 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| 72% | Completion rate | **75%** |
| **2,008** | Run metres | 1,604 |
| **717** | Post-contact metres | 608 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 33 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| **17** | Offloads | 12 |
| 85.6% | Effective tackle % | **86.8%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **33** |
| **12** | Errors | 13 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| 379 | Kick metres | **537** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dragons to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.7 but the actual margin was 22 points. The model went 8/16 on this match. Dragons covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Chris Butler officiated this match (156 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 10 points above Chris Butler's career average of 44. Dragons's victory aligns with Chris Butler's historical trend, Dragons have a 44% win rate under this referee. Dragons's home victory fits Chris Butler's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Chris Butler averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Christian Tuipulotu (Dragons) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 16' Try — Brian Kelly (Titans) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 31' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 35' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 16-4 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 37' Try — Kyle Flanagan (Dragons) — 22-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 42' Try — Christian Tuipulotu (Dragons) — 28-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 59' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 32-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 61' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 34-8 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 66' Sin Bin — Brock Gray (Titans) — 34-8 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 72' Try — Dylan Egan (Dragons) — 38-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 78' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 38-14 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dragons to win @ $1.68 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 60.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 5 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dragons are the call at 61%, but Titans stay live at 39%. Form leans Titans' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Dragons.

On paper Titans shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The model still sides with Dragons, which says Backline Quality and Referee Tendency carry the most weight. The margin model has Dragons by 4.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four. Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Dragons 12th against Titans 8th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 5 · Titans 5 |
| Last meeting | Titans 38-18 |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons at home | 6-6 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 12th · Titans 8th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Titans 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dragons

**Chris Butler** — 156 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Chris Butler | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 7W–9L | 44% |
| Titans | 7W–26L | 21% |

Avg total: 43.7 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Chris Butler officiates, Dragons have won 7 of 16 games (44%), significantly stronger than Titans's 7 from 33 (21%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Chris Butler averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.7 against away. Dragons get a +1.3 penalty advantage under Chris Butler vs Titans's -0.5.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.8pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| -1.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.0pts |
| 1704.6m | Run Metres | 1572.8m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 3.2 |
| 365.4 | Tackles | 341.8 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 1W–4L | 20.8 |
| Titans | 2W–3L | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Dragons | 18 – 38 | Titans |
| 2026 | R4 | Titans | 22 – 14 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R24 | Dragons | 32 – 16 | Titans |
| 2024 | R1 | Titans | 4 – 28 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R6 | Titans | 20 – 18 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 13th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Gutherson, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 16th there (2.25 conceded/game). Key man: Brimson, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.25/g (def 16th (weak)) | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 0/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.75/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 5 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 134m/g | 218m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.4% | 81.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 7 | 6 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 2.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 781m/g | 626m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.8/g | 11.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 5/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.2% | 80.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 2 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 468m/g | 536m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 87.1% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.4/g (lg 0.16) +150% · Fullbacks 0.77/g (lg 0.44) +75% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.44) +43%
**Who scores on Dragons** — 2nd Rows 0.67/g (lg 0.44) +52% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.26) +42%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at WIN Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 2 in 4g | 9/10g (1·2·0·0·2·2·0·0·0·2) | 6/12g | 1/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·2·0·2·0·0) | 4/5g | 11/14g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' 60' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/20g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 1 in 4g | 8/10g (0·3·1·1·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 9/15g | 1/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' |
| 5 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 5 in 4g | 11/10g (3·1·0·0·1·1·3·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 4/6g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 42' |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/6g | 18% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/11g | 11% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 6/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/14g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 2/52g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 1/15g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.00 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/34g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 72' |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylan De Groot | FB | 0 in 4g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Tony Francis | WG | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 4 | Phillip Sami | WG | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/11g | 0/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 6 | AJ Brimson | 5/8 | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 2/9g | 1/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Klese Haas | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | CE | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 13 | Chris Randall | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Arama Hau | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | David Fifita | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 16 | Jaimin Jolliffe | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Brock Gray | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Titans hold the ELO advantage (1414 vs 1403), but the market favours Dragons (@1.68). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1403 · Titans 1414 · ELO difference: 10 in favour of Titans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1049 (best 1240) | 1068 (best 1197) | Titans +19 |
| Backs | 981 (best 1123) | 826 (best 961) | Dragons +155 |
| Halves | 862 (best 862) | 1294 (best 1294) | Titans +433 |
| Hooker | 1022 | 1082 | Titans +60 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Titans |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Titans |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dragons |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Titans |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Titans |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dragons |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Dragons predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)