Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dragons to win at 61% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.7 but the actual margin was 22 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Chris Butler officiated this match (156 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 10 points above Chris Butler's career average of 44. Dragons's victory aligns with Chris Butler's historical trend, Dragons have a 44% win rate under this referee. Dragons's home victory fits Chris Butler's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Chris Butler averaged 12.8 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
61%
Titans
39%
AI Match Overview
Dragons hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 39%. Titans are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control, but Dragons counter with Backline Quality and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Recent form favours Titans with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Dragons by 4.7 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dragons to Win @1.68
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.8%
Line / Spread
Dragons -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.8%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+18.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | W L L L L | 20.8 |
Titans | W W L L L | 20.4 |
Avg Conceded
22.0
Dragons
22.4
Titans
Avg Margin
-1.2
Dragons
-2.0
Titans
Run Metres
1705
Dragons
1573
Titans
Line Breaks
5.0
Dragons
3.2
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours DragonsChris Butler
156 career games · since 2014
Win rate when Chris Butler refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Chris Butler officiates, Dragons have won 7 of 16 games (44%), significantly stronger than Titans's 7 from 33 (21%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
12.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.42
SB Away %
38%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Chris Butler averages 12.8 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 6.7 against away. Dragons get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Chris Butler vs Titans's -0.5. 62% of his 60 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Titans hold the ELO advantage (1414 vs 1403), but the market favours Dragons (@1.68).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Dragons predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +4.7
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