Win Probability
AI Game Review
Dolphins defied the model's 65% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.8 but the actual margin was 18 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42, within 3 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Dolphins bucked the trend, Panthers historically win 66% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
35%
Panthers
65%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dolphins. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Panthers carry a 116-point ELO rating advantage (1524 vs 1407). The margin model predicts Panthers by 2.8 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.40
Lost ✗
Edge
-6.5%
Line / Spread
Panthers +7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-6.5%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | W L L L L | 18.4 |
Panthers | W L L L L | 24.0 |
Avg Conceded
20.4
Dolphins
28.0
Panthers
Avg Margin
-2.0
Dolphins
-4.0
Panthers
Run Metres
1761
Dolphins
1714
Panthers
Line Breaks
3.4
Dolphins
6.4
Panthers
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Panthers have won 25 of 38 games (66%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 6 from 12 (50%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Panthers predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -2.8
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