# Dolphins v Panthers — NRL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 30 – 12 Panthers

_Dolphins make a splash against Panthers._

Half time: 18 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 35% / Panthers 65% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Thu, 10 Apr, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (22' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jake Averillo (28' Tipped ⚡), Connelly Lemuelu (43'), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (80' 1st Tipped 🎯) · Panthers: Casey McLean (11' Tipped ⚡), Moses Leota (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 65% | Lost |
| Dolphins | 35% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.8 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dolphins 30–12 Panthers in NRL Round 6 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Panthers by 2.8 points. What actually happened was Dolphins by 18, final score 30-12 at Suncorp Stadium. That's not a near miss, that's the model reading the wrong side of the ledger entirely.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow made a liar of the form guide inside three minutes, opening the scoring for Dolphins and finishing with a hat-trick by the 79th minute. Casey McLean hit back for Panthers at the 10 minute mark to make it 6-4, but that was as close as the visitors got. Tabuai-Fidow's second try at 22 minutes, followed by a Paul Alamoti sin bin at 25 and a Jake Averillo four-pointer at 28, turned a tight game into a procession. By the time Connelly Lemuelu scored just before the break, it was 22-6 and the contest was more or less settled. Dolphins led 18-6 at half-time and never gave that up.

The pre-match ratings said Panthers should have won this comfortably enough on paper, backed by a stronger last-five line break average of 6.4 to Dolphins' 3.4. On the day it flipped: Dolphins broke the line six times to Panthers' three, and that gap did the damage. Tackle breaks went the same way, 25 to 20 in the Dolphins' favour. Whatever the Panthers forward pack's slight ratings edge (1122 to 1115) was meant to deliver, it didn't show up where it counted.

Panthers actually won the underlying territory numbers. They had 54% of the ball, ran for 2,002 metres to Dolphins' 1,674, and ground out 655 post-contact metres to 530. Offloads went their way too, 12 to 7. On any conventional read, that's the side doing more of the hard yakka. Dolphins made up for it by using the ball they did have far better, and by controlling the game with the boot, out-kicking Panthers 602 metres to 522. Effective tackle percentages were almost identical, 91.5 to 91.6, but Dolphins missed only 20 tackles to Panthers' 25, and that discipline in defence turned Panthers' extra metres into not much at all.

Moses Leota's try at 72 minutes and a late McLean-adjacent scoreline shuffle got Panthers to 24-10 and then 24-12, but Tabuai-Fidow's third try at 79 minutes closed it out at 30-12 and put the gloss on what was already a comfortable margin. Panthers' form coming in had them scoring at 24 points a game and conceding 28, an up-and-down profile, and this one fit the conceding side of that ledger more than the scoring side.

Alphr's model went 3 from 16 on this match. It got the total right, tipping 45 against an actual combined 42, and the under 48.5 call landed. But the head-to-head pick and the margin were both well off, forecasting a 2.8 point Panthers win against an 18 point Dolphins victory. Line breaks and defensive discipline told the real story here, not the metres column. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one's filed under misses.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 18 | 12 | 30 |
| Panthers | 6 | 6 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 78% | Completion rate | **79%** |
| 1,674 | Run metres | **2,002** |
| 530 | Post-contact metres | **655** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **25** | Tackle breaks | 20 |
| 7 | Offloads | **12** |
| 91.5% | Effective tackle % | **91.6%** |
| **20** | Missed tackles | 25 |
| 12 | Errors | 12 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **602** | Kick metres | 522 |

**Model Report Card**

Dolphins defied the model's 65% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.8 but the actual margin was 18 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42, within 3 points. The model went 3/16 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Dolphins bucked the trend, Panthers historically win 68% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 10' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 22' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Sin Bin — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 28' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 42' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 22-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 72' Try — Moses Leota (Panthers) — 24-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 79' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 28-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.40 (edge -6.5%) — model probability 65.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 3 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 65% to see off Dolphins. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 116 ELO points clear, 1524 to 1407.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Panthers by 2.8, with the two sides combining for about 45. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Panthers to win, not to win big.

Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 23-22 in 2026 Round 7.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Panthers have put up 124 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 14th against Panthers 15th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 4) | Dolphins 1 · Panthers 3 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 23-22 |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins at home | 7-5 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 14th · Panthers 15th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 0% · Panthers 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 8W–6L | 57% |
| Panthers | 27W–13L | 68% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Panthers hold a 11-point edge: 27W–13L (68%) vs Dolphins's 8W–6L (57%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Panthers get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dolphins's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 20.4pts | Avg Conceded | 28.0pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | -4.0pts |
| 1761.4m | Run Metres | 1714.2m |
| 3.4 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 379.0 | Tackles | 362.2 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 13.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 1W–4L | 18.4 |
| Panthers | 1W–4L | 24.0 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Panthers lead 3-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R7 | Dolphins | 22 – 23 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R20 | Panthers | 28 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R20 | Dolphins | 14 – 24 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 15th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 11th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Alamoti, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.2/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 11th) | 1.6/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.8/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.6/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.6/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 1.4/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.8/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.6/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 207m/g | 181m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 84.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 13 | 13 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 791m/g | 748m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.4/g | 13.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 79% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 503m/g | 473m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.15) +0% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.44) -7% · 2nd Rows 0.37/g (lg 0.44) -16%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Centres 0.94/g (lg 0.67) +40% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.15) +40% · Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/7g | 9/19g | 48% | 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 22' 80' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 28/64g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 1 in 5g | 6/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 7/15g | 40% | 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 19/54g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Jack Bostock | WG | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/13g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/13g | 18/72g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/17g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Daniel Saifiti | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/13g | 1/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/32g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Tom Gilbert | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Max Plath | LK | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.00 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 6/30g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 3/17g | 16% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/17g | 4% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/17g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 3/8g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Thomas Jenkins | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Casey McLean | WG | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 35% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/16g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/20g | 6% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 9 | Luke Sommerton | HK | no games | 2/5g (0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.00 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/16g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/16g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/20g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 17% | — | — |
| 15 | Isaiah Papali'i | PR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/11g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Henry | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Garner | INT | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.25 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1407 · Panthers 1524 · ELO difference: 116 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1115 (best 1260) | 1122 (best 1279) | Panthers +6 |
| Backs | 1048 (best 1200) | 1036 (best 1140) | Dolphins +12 |
| Halves | 1266 (best 1266) | 1277 (best 1277) | Panthers +12 |
| Hooker | 1164 | 1090 | Dolphins +73 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Panthers predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)