# Broncos v Roosters — NRL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 16 – 26 Roosters

_Roosters strut past Broncos._

Half time: 12 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 64% / Roosters 36% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 11 Apr, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Selwyn Cobbo (21' Tipped ⚡), Reece Walsh (23'), Jesse Arthars (50' Tipped ⚡) · Roosters: Billy Smith (13' 1st Tipped ⚡), Billy Smith (34' 1st Tipped ⚡), Angus Crichton (38'), Nat Butcher (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 64% | Lost |
| Roosters | 36% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.1 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Broncos 16–26 Roosters in NRL Round 6 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Start with the boot: 650 kick metres to 515. That gap in territory set the terms all night, and the Roosters made it count, beating the Broncos 26-16 at Suncorp Stadium.

Billy Smith got things moving in the 13th minute, then found the sin bin five minutes later for the same effort, and somehow the Roosters still had the better of the ten minutes either side of it. The Broncos hit back through Selwyn Cobbo and Reece Walsh to level things at 8-8 by the 23rd minute, and when Jack Gosiewski joined Smith in the bin at 29 minutes it looked like anyone's game. It wasn't. Smith crossed again in the 34th, Angus Crichton followed three minutes later, and the Roosters led 20-12 at the break. Jesse Arthars pulled one back for Brisbane just after halftime, but Nat Butcher's try in the 65th minute put the game to bed at 26-16.

The kicking game explains a lot of it. With 650 metres off the boot to Brisbane's 515, the Roosters spent the match pinning the Broncos in their own end, and that field position turns into points when you're also winning the collisions. Post-contact metres told the same story, 508 to 456, the Roosters getting more out of every carry after the tackle. Total run metres were close, 1,536 to 1,505, but the extra hit-up yardage and the territory from the boot add up over eighty minutes.

Possession went the same way, 53% to 47%, and the completion numbers back up why the Roosters could afford to play with it: 78% against Brisbane's 71%. The Broncos actually offloaded more, 9 to 5, and broke more tackles per busted line, but four line breaks apiece meant neither side turned it into a clean scoring edge. Discipline cut both ways too. Brisbane conceded just 5 penalties to the Roosters' 8, yet still came away with two players in the bin, which cost them more than the penalty count suggests.

The pre-match numbers had this the other way round. Brisbane's halves rating, 1065 to 862, was the widest gap on the sheet, and their recent form had them winning four of their last five at an average margin of plus 13.2. The Roosters had been going the other way, one win from five and conceding nearly 30 points a game. But the forward pack and back line ratings favoured the Roosters coming in, 1173 to 1071 and 1034 to 933, and that's roughly what showed up in the post-contact numbers and the way they controlled the ball.

Alphr's model had Brisbane winning by 10.1 points off a 64% probability, backing that halves advantage to tell. Instead the Roosters won by 10, the other direction entirely. The total of 47 wasn't far off the 42 that played out, and the under 50.5 call landed, but on the head-to-head result this one was a miss, part of a 4 from 16 night for the model on this match. Forward power and boot metres won out over the flashier halves matchup, and Brisbane never quite closed the gap that opened in the middle third.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| Roosters | 20 | 6 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 71% | Completion rate | **78%** |
| 1,505 | Run metres | **1,536** |
| 456 | Post-contact metres | **508** |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **26** |
| **9** | Offloads | 5 |
| **91.1%** | Effective tackle % | 87.9% |
| 26 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| 13 | Errors | 13 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 515 | Kick metres | **650** |

**Model Report Card**

Roosters defied the model's 64% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.1 but the actual margin was 10 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 42, within 5 points. The model went 4/16 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Roosters bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 60% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 13' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 0-6 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 18' Sin Bin — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 0-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 20' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Broncos) — 4-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 23' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 8-8 · win-prob swing +15 pts
- 29' Sin Bin — Jack Gosiewski (Broncos) — 8-8 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 34' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 12-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 37' Try — Angus Crichton (Roosters) — 12-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 50' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 16-20 · win-prob swing +18 pts
- 65' Try — Nat Butcher (Roosters) — 16-24 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.30 (edge -19.0%) — model probability 64.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -19.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 10 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Broncos are the call at 64%, but Roosters stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 105 ELO points clear, 1539 to 1435. Form leans Broncos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Roosters.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Broncos by 10.1, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 24-18 in 2026 Round 17.

Broncos have won 7 straight; Broncos are 10-3 at home this year. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Broncos 2nd against Roosters 16th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 2 · Roosters 8 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 24-18 |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos at home | 10-3 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 2nd · Roosters 16th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 12W–8L | 60% |
| Roosters | 8W–8L | 50% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Broncos hold a 10-point edge: 12W–8L (60%) vs Roosters's 8W–8L (50%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 32.8pts | Avg Score | 16.8pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| 13.2pts | Avg Margin | -12.4pts |
| 1602.8m | Run Metres | 1597.2m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 312.2 | Tackles | 384.0 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 13.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 4W–1L | 32.8 |
| Roosters | 1W–4L | 16.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Broncos | 18 – 24 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R9 | Roosters | 38 – 24 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R1 | Roosters | 14 – 50 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R9 | Broncos | 18 – 40 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R1 | Roosters | 20 – 10 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 17th there (2.4 conceded/game). Key man: Reynolds, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (0.8 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 10th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Tupou, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.6/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 7th) | 1.2/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.4/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 10th) | 0.8/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 2 | 5 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 110m/g | 186m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 90.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 11 | 10 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 647m/g | 690m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.2/g | 21.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 4.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.1% | 82.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 591m/g | 524m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12/g | 10.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.9% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.26) +38% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.67) +4% · Wingers 1.23/g (lg 1.26) -2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 1 in 5g | 6/10g (1·1·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 13/27g | 46% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 2 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 26/43g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.65 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 5/9g | 35/68g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 2/4g | 3/9g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 60% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 7 in 5g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·3·1·0·2) | 1/6g | 14/40g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.48 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| 6 | Ben Hunt | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 12/25g | 25/105g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/27g | 7/49g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/56g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 4/32g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 8/70g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Gosiewski | 2R | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 3/11g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaiyden Hunt | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/46g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 7/42g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Jensen | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/40g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Xavier Willison | INT | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 4/20g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Martin Taupau | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 2/33g | 6% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 0 in 5g | 5/10g (0·2·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 5/17g | 40% | — | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 2 in 5g | 8/10g (2·2·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 6/21g | 6/16g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 34' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Dominic Young | WG | 5 in 5g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·1) | 5/5g | 5/5g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Hugo Savala | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Nat Butcher | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/14g | 14% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/13g | 2/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/13g | 8/13g | 16% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/12g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Salesi Foketi | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1539 · Roosters 1435 · ELO difference: 105 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1071 (best 1299) | 1173 (best 1296) | Roosters +102 |
| Backs | 933 (best 1000) | 1034 (best 1137) | Roosters +100 |
| Halves | 1065 (best 1065) | 862 (best 862) | Broncos +203 |
| Hooker | 1016 | 1092 | Roosters +76 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Broncos predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)