Win Probability
AI Game Review
Roosters defied the model's 64% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.1 but the actual margin was 10 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 42, within 5 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Roosters bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 60% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
64%
Roosters
36%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Roosters are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Broncos carry a 105-point ELO rating advantage (1539 vs 1435). Recent form favours Broncos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Broncos by 10.1 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.30
Lost ✗
Edge
-19.0%
Line / Spread
Broncos -10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-19.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | W W W W L | 32.8 |
Roosters | W L L L L | 16.8 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Broncos
29.2
Roosters
Avg Margin
13.2
Broncos
-12.4
Roosters
Run Metres
1603
Broncos
1597
Roosters
Line Breaks
6.2
Broncos
5.6
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
Broncos hold a 10-point edge: 12W–8L (60%) vs Roosters's 8W–8L (50%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Roosters get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Broncos's -0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Broncos predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +10.1
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