# Titans v Dolphins — NRL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 10 – 36 Dolphins

_Dolphins put Titans to the sword._

Half time: 0 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 52% / Dolphins 48% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sat, 05 Apr, 05:30 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Phillip Sami (65'), AJ Brimson (70' Tipped ⚡) · Dolphins: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Daniel Saifiti (24'), Max Plath (59' Tipped ⚡), Connelly Lemuelu (63'), Jamayne Isaako (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 52% | Lost |
| Dolphins | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.7 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Titans 10–36 Dolphins in NRL Round 5 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dolphins beat Titans 36 to 10 at Cbus Super Stadium, and the scoreline undersells how comprehensively the visitors dominated the parts of the game that actually decide it. Dolphins ran for 1,981 metres to the Titans' 1,458, more than 500 metres of separation, and turned that platform into five line breaks against two. The margin looks like a hiding. The underlying numbers say it should have been worse.

The Titans were undone early, and not just on the scoreboard. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui was sin binned in the first minute, and by the time he was back on the field, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow had already scored in the ninth to make it 0-4. Daniel Saifiti followed in the 24th minute to push it to 0-12, and the Titans went to the break down 16-0 without troubling the tryline once.

Ray Stone spent ten minutes in the sin bin himself from the 30th minute, evening things up numerically for a stretch, but it made no visible dent in the Dolphins' shape. They came out after the break and kept scoring: Max Plath in the 58th minute, Connelly Lemuelu five minutes later, and suddenly it was 0-26 with half an hour still to play.

The Titans finally got on the board through Phillip Sami in the 65th minute and AJ Brimson four minutes after that, two tries in quick succession that at least got them off the goose egg. But Jamayne Isaako closed the scoring for Dolphins in the 78th minute, and the final margin told the same story the middle third of the game had already written.

What's notable is how even some of the other numbers were. Both sides made exactly 10 errors. Missed tackles were near identical, 26 for the Titans against 25 for the Dolphins, and effective tackle percentage was close too, 88.0 to 91.0. Completion rates sat within four points of each other. On paper, this shouldn't have been a 26-point game.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| Dolphins | 16 | 20 | 36 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 72% | Completion rate | **76%** |
| 1,458 | Run metres | **1,981** |
| 523 | Post-contact metres | **619** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 25 | Tackle breaks | **26** |
| 7 | Offloads | **12** |
| 88.0% | Effective tackle % | **91.0%** |
| 26 | Missed tackles | **25** |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **533** | Kick metres | 496 |

**Model Report Card**

Dolphins defied the model's 52% prediction for Titans, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.7 but the actual margin was 26 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 46, within 1 points. Dolphins led 0–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 6/16 on this match. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 46 points was 4 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Dolphins's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Dolphins have a 71% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Sin Bin — Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Titans) — 0-0 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 9' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 24' Try — Daniel Saifiti (Dolphins) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 30' Sin Bin — Ray Stone (Dolphins) — 0-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 58' Try — Max Plath (Dolphins) — 0-20 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 63' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 0-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 65' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 4-28 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 69' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 8-28 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 78' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 10-34 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.48 (edge -13.6%) — model probability 51.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Titans -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -13.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Titans by 4 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Titans and Dolphins. The model can't split them, landing on Titans at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Titans sit 115 ELO points clear, 1469 to 1353. Form leans Titans' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Dolphins.

Titans own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Titans by 3.7, with the two sides combining for about 45. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Dolphins have won 7 of the last 8 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 24-20 in 2026 Round 27.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Titans 5th against Dolphins 16th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Titans 1 · Dolphins 7 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 24-20 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 5th · Dolphins 16th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Dolphins 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 2W–7L | 22% |
| Dolphins | 5W–2L | 71% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Dolphins have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 9 (22%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Dolphins).

Titans get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Dolphins's +0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 12.4pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -1.2pts | Avg Margin | -8.8pts |
| 1665.0m | Run Metres | 1706.0m |
| 3.6 | Line Breaks | 2.8 |
| 343.4 | Tackles | 384.0 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 2W–3L | 21.2 |
| Dolphins | 0W–5L | 12.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Titans | 20 – 24 | Dolphins |
| 2026 | R2 | Dolphins | 18 – 14 | Titans |
| 2025 | R26 | Dolphins | 36 – 30 | Titans |
| 2024 | R21 | Dolphins | 14 – 21 | Titans |
| 2024 | R4 | Titans | 14 – 30 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the right edge: NRL's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 17th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Fermor, 1 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.25 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 7th there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.25/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 7th) | 1.25/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 1 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 216m/g | 176m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.7/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.2% | 89% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 5 | 5 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 639m/g | 796m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13/g | 20.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.4% | 83.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 550m/g | 500m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.1% | 89.9% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Centres 0.96/g (lg 0.67) +43% · Halfbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.22) +41% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.15) +40%
**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.39/g (lg 0.16) +144% · Fullbacks 0.76/g (lg 0.44) +73% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.44) +43%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylan De Groot | FB | 0 in 3g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 2 | Tony Francis | WG | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 18/58g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Phillip Sami | WG | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 27/56g | 36% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 6 | AJ Brimson | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 23/55g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 13/28g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/65g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Chris Randall | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/24g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Klese Haas | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/21g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | CE | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 9/34g | 32% | — | — |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 6/30g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 14 | Sean Mullany | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | David Fifita | 2R | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 22/42g | 26% | — | — |
| 16 | Jaimin Jolliffe | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/39g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Brock Gray | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 3/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 2/11g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 1 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 1/6g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/9g | 2/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Jack Bostock | WG | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 44% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 8/16g | 5/12g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Daniel Saifiti | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 2/7g | 10% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | LK | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 13 | Max Plath | 2R | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.90 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Mark Nicholls | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1469 · Dolphins 1353 · ELO difference: 115 in favour of Titans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1116 (best 1244) | 1039 (best 1236) | Titans +77 |
| Backs | 954 (best 1138) | 1048 (best 1157) | Dolphins +94 |
| Halves | 1406 (best 1406) | 1174 (best 1174) | Titans +232 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1166 | Titans +34 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Titans |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Titans |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Titans |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Titans |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Titans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Titans predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)