Win Probability
AI Game Review
Dolphins defied the model's 52% prediction for Titans, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.7 but the actual margin was 26 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 46, within 1 points. Dolphins led 0–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 52.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Dolphins's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Dolphins have a 75% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Titans
52%
Dolphins
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Titans a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Titans ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Titans carry a 115-point ELO rating advantage (1469 vs 1353). Recent form favours Titans with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Titans by 3.7 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Titans to Win @1.48
Lost ✗
Edge
-13.6%
Line / Spread
Titans -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-13.6%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+21.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | W W L L L | 21.2 |
Dolphins | L L L L L | 12.4 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Titans
21.2
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-1.2
Titans
-8.8
Dolphins
Run Metres
1665
Titans
1706
Dolphins
Line Breaks
3.6
Titans
2.8
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours DolphinsWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Dolphins have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 7 (29%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Dolphins).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Dolphins get a +2.0 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Titans's +0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Titans predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +3.7
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