Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.2 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 72 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 50. Storm led 10–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 72 points was 29 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Storm have a 65% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
40%
Storm
60%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Sea Eagles are far from out of this at 40%. Sea Eagles are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Storm counter with ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Storm carry a 87-point ELO rating advantage (1656 vs 1569). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Storm by 2.2 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.55
Winner ✓
Edge
-10.0%
Line / Spread
Storm +4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-10.0%
Total Points
Over 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | W W W L L | 28.0 |
Storm | W W W W L | 35.8 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Sea Eagles
16.8
Storm
Avg Margin
5.6
Sea Eagles
19.0
Storm
Run Metres
1689
Sea Eagles
1758
Storm
Line Breaks
5.8
Sea Eagles
6.0
Storm
Referee Indicator
Favours StormGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Storm hold a 10-point edge: 34W–18L (65%) vs Sea Eagles's 21W–17L (55%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Storm get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Sea Eagles's -0.6.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Storm predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: -2.2
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