# Sea Eagles v Storm — NRL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 24 – 48 Storm

_Storm blow away Sea Eagles._

Half time: 10 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 40% / Storm 60% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sun, 06 Apr, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Tolutau Koula (30'), Tolutau Koula (68'), Jason Saab (72' Tipped ⚡), Clayton Faulalo (80') · Storm: Stefano Utoikamanu (11' 1st), Cameron Munster (14' Tipped ⚡), Grant Anderson (17'), Grant Anderson (48'), Ryan Papenhuyzen (51' Tipped ⚡), Grant Anderson (54'), Bronson Garlick (59'), Jack Howarth (63')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 60% | Won |
| Sea Eagles | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sea Eagles 24–48 Storm in NRL Round 5 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm had this at arm's length inside the first 16 minutes and never let it go. Grant Anderson crossed in the 16th to make it 2-16, and Manly spent the rest of the night chasing a lead that only grew.

The early damage was brutal in its simplicity. Stefano Utoikamanu opened the scoring for Storm in the 11th, Cameron Munster followed two minutes later, and Anderson piled on a third inside 16 minutes. From 2-16 down, Sea Eagles got one back through Tolutau Koula in the 30th to make it 6-18 at the break, but the shape of the contest was already set.

Whatever hope Manly carried into the sheds evaporated fast. Anderson scored his second in the 48th to push it to 10-22, then Ryan Papenhuyzen and a third Anderson try inside three minutes had it at 10-34. Bronson Garlick and Jack Howarth piled on further scores either side of the hour mark, and by the 62nd minute it read 10-46. Koula's second, Jason Saab and Clayton Faulalo gave the scoreboard a more respectable look late, but 48-24 was already written.

The stat sheet doesn't scream blowout, which makes the scoreboard more interesting. Sea Eagles were actually the tidier side with the ball, completing at 79% to Storm's 84% but with fewer errors, 8 to 11. Line breaks were dead level at 9 apiece, and Manly even edged tackle breaks, 37 to 34, and offloads, 14 to 10. On paper this looks like a game that should have been tight.

Where Storm actually won it was in the collisions. They carried for 1,645 run metres to 1,465, and the post-contact gap was bigger still, 530 to 429. That's a forward pack getting over the advantage line and dragging defenders with it, and it lines up with the positional read coming in, Storm's forwards rated at 1089 against Manly's 1165 on paper but doing the heavier lifting where it counted. Add in 417 kick metres to 326 and Storm were setting up field position that Manly's line simply couldn't hold, missing 37 tackles to Manly's 34 despite the better completion numbers.

Grant Anderson's hat-trick did plenty of the scoreboard damage, and with Munster, Papenhuyzen, Garlick and Howarth all crossing as well, Storm's spread of scorers told its own story. Manly's four tries, two from Koula plus Saab and Faulalo, were mostly a second-half rearguard once the contest had already gone.

Alphr's model backed Storm at 60% and called the winner. The margin was the miss, tipped at 2.2 points against an actual gap of 24, and the total landed at 72 against a predicted 50, well clear of the 48.5 line. Storm's form coming in, four wins from five and an average winning margin of 19 points, was closer to the truth than the head-to-head rating gap suggested. Manly's line speed and completion rate kept it competitive on the stat sheet, but against a Storm side finishing clinically off the back of the ball, that was never going to be enough.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 10 | 14 | 24 |
| Storm | 18 | 30 | 48 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 79% | Completion rate | **84%** |
| 1,465 | Run metres | **1,645** |
| 429 | Post-contact metres | **530** |
| 9 | Line breaks | 9 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 34 |
| **14** | Offloads | 10 |
| **85.8%** | Effective tackle % | 82.6% |
| **34** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| **8** | Errors | 11 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 326 | Kick metres | **417** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.2 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 72 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 50. Storm led 10–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 6/16 on this match. Storm covered the 4.5-point line. The over 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 72 points was 29 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Storm have a 64% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 11' Try — Stefano Utoikamanu (Storm) — 2-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 13' Try — Cameron Munster (Storm) — 2-10 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 16' Try — Grant Anderson (Storm) — 2-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 30' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 6-18 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 48' Try — Grant Anderson (Storm) — 10-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 50' Try — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 10-28 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 53' Try — Grant Anderson (Storm) — 10-34 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 58' Try — Bronson Garlick (Storm) — 10-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 62' Try — Jack Howarth (Storm) — 10-46 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 67' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 14-48 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 72' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 18-48 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 79' Try — Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — 22-48 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.55 (edge -10.0%) — model probability 59.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -10.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 2 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 60%, but Sea Eagles stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 87 ELO points clear, 1656 to 1569. Form leans Storm's way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Sea Eagles.

On paper Sea Eagles shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with Storm, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Storm by 2.2, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Storm have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 2nd against Storm 4th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 5 · Storm 5 |
| Last meeting | Storm 42-20 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 8-4 this season |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 2nd · Storm 4th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Storm 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 21W–20L | 51% |
| Storm | 35W–20L | 64% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Storm hold a 13-point edge: 35W–20L (64%) vs Sea Eagles's 21W–20L (51%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Storm get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Sea Eagles's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 28.0pts | Avg Score | 35.8pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| 5.6pts | Avg Margin | 19.0pts |
| 1689.2m | Run Metres | 1758.4m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 6.0 |
| 298.6 | Tackles | 299.4 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 3W–2L | 28.0 |
| Storm | 4W–1L | 35.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Storm | 42 – 20 | Sea Eagles |
| 2026 | R17 | Sea Eagles | 30 – 4 | Storm |
| 2025 | R20 | Storm | 16 – 18 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R12 | Sea Eagles | 26 – 20 | Storm |
| 2023 | R17 | Storm | 24 – 6 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 15th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Garrick, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.67 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 6th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Papenhuyzen, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.75/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 8th) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.25/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 6th (strong)) | 2.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.25/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 7th) | 1.33/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 2 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 198m/g | 215m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 6 | 10 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 2.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 685m/g | 722m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.8/g | 15.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.5/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 73.8% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 3 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 573m/g | 505m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.3/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.32/g (lg 1.26) +5% · Centres 0.63/g (lg 0.67) -6% · Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.11) -18%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · Fullbacks 0.54/g (lg 0.44) +23% · 2nd Rows 0.52/g (lg 0.44) +18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lehi Hopoate | FB | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 6/9g | 43% | — | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 3 in 4g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 5/5g | 19/30g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 12/27g | 32% | — | 🏉 30' 68' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 5 in 4g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·4·0) | 2/10g | 37/51g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Clayton Faulalo | WG | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 18% | — | 🏉 80' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 5/20g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/26g | 39/130g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/17g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 16/35g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/25g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 17/90g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 2/26g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 4/28g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | PR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 3/33g | 12% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 4 in 3g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·1·1) | 5/7g | 3/3g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 4 | Grant Anderson | WG | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 26% | — | 🏉 17' 48' 54' |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 4/6g | 0/2g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 55% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/5g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| 7 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·3·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/5g | 2/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Bronson Garlick | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Lazarus Vaalepu | Replacement | 0 in 1g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1569 · Storm 1656 · ELO difference: 87 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1165 (best 1328) | 1089 (best 1229) | Sea Eagles +76 |
| Backs | 946 (best 1070) | 939 (best 1017) | Sea Eagles +7 |
| Halves | 1175 (best 1175) | 1052 (best 1052) | Sea Eagles +123 |
| Hooker | 869 | 1074 | Storm +205 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Storm predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)