# Raiders v Sharks — NRL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 24 – 20 Sharks

_Raiders hold off a fast-finishing Sharks._

Half time: 18 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 41% / Sharks 59% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Thu, 03 Apr, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Matty Nicholson (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Hudson Young (23'), Hudson Young (32'), Sebastian Kris (78' Tipped ⚡) · Sharks: Mawene Hiroti (9'), Briton Nikora (26' Tipped ⚡), Briton Nikora (39' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 59% | Lost |
| Raiders | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.7 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 24–20 Sharks in NRL Round 5 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Raiders beat Sharks 24-20 at GIO Stadium, and on the bare scoreline that reads like a tight arm-wrestle decided by a converted try. Look at the underlying numbers and it gets murkier. Sharks had 52% of the ball, ran for 1,846 metres to the Raiders' 1,633, and completed at 86% against the home side's 81%. By most conventional measures they were the better side for large stretches. They still walked away with the loss.

The first half explains why it was locked at 18-18 at the break. Matty Nicholson opened the scoring inside four minutes, and from there it was try for try: Mawene Hiroti hit back for the Sharks at the eight-minute mark, Hudson Young crossed twice either side of a Briton Nikora try, and Nikora added his second just before half-time to level it. Six tries in 38 minutes, nobody able to build a buffer.

The second half went quiet by comparison, just one score, but it was the one that mattered. Sebastian Kris crossed in the 78th minute to put the Raiders up 24-20 and shut the door, after Young had spent ten minutes in the sin bin from the 57th following his brace. Losing a double try-scorer to the bin for that long and still finding the match-winner says plenty about how the Raiders finished the job without him.

The gap that actually decided this game sits in the attacking numbers, not the possession count. Raiders broke the line four times to two, racked up 31 tackle breaks to 24, and offloaded 16 times to the Sharks' four. That's not a side controlling the ball, it's a side making the most of the ball it had. Defensively the story's just as clear: Raiders tackled at 92.3% effective with 24 missed, Sharks at 86.7% with 31 missed. Territory and completion rate mean little when you're leaking that many tackles against a team offloading at that rate.

Discipline flipped the other way entirely. Raiders conceded seven penalties to the Sharks' two, which makes their win a bit more impressive given they were also playing with a man in the bin for ten minutes late. Kicking metres told a different story again: Raiders booted for 684 to the Sharks' 587, despite having less of the ball, suggesting they were happy to play territory and let their line-break edge do the scoring for them.

The positional ratings going in hinted at exactly this split. Sharks came in rated stronger in the halves (1234 to 1094) and the backs (1033 to 954), which tracks with their edge in metres and completion. But the Raiders held a big edge at hooker, 1177 to 934, and a smaller one in the forwards, and that showed up in the offload count and the tackle breaks. Ball control through the middle won out over polish out wide.

Alphr's model had Sharks favourites at 59%, expecting them to win by 4.7 points on a combined total of 45. The Raiders defied that read entirely, winning by 4 instead of losing by five, though the total of 44 points landed within a point of the projection. Model went 5 from 16 on this one, with the under 46.5 call the lone correct piece.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 18 | 6 | 24 |
| Sharks | 18 | 2 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 81% | Completion rate | **86%** |
| 1,633 | Run metres | **1,846** |
| 589 | Post-contact metres | **623** |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **31** | Tackle breaks | 24 |
| **16** | Offloads | 4 |
| **92.3%** | Effective tackle % | 86.7% |
| **24** | Missed tackles | 31 |
| 9 | Errors | 9 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| **684** | Kick metres | 587 |

**Model Report Card**

Raiders defied the model's 59% prediction for Sharks, a notable result. The predicted margin of 4.7 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 47. Raiders bucked the trend, Sharks historically win 68% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Matty Nicholson (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +8 pts
- 8' Try — Mawene Hiroti (Sharks) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 22' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Try — Briton Nikora (Sharks) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 31' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 38' Try — Briton Nikora (Sharks) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 57' Sin Bin — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 78' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 22-20 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.50 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 59.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 5 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sharks are the call at 59%, but Raiders stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 101 ELO points clear, 1553 to 1451. Form leans Raiders' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Sharks.

On paper Raiders shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. The model still sides with Sharks, which says ELO Difference and Backline Quality carry the most weight. The margin model has Sharks by 4.7, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Sharks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 12th against Sharks 10th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 5 · Sharks 5 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 24-20 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks away | 6-8 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 12th · Sharks 10th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 7W–10L | 41% |
| Sharks | 13W–6L | 68% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Sharks have won 13 of 19 games (68%), significantly stronger than Raiders's 7 from 17 (41%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Sharks get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Raiders's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| -0.8pts | Avg Margin | -0.2pts |
| 1615.4m | Run Metres | 1681.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 372.2 | Tackles | 352.4 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 3W–2L | 24.0 |
| Sharks | 2W–3L | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Sharks | 20 – 24 | Raiders |
| 2026 | R4 | Raiders | 22 – 34 | Sharks |
| 2025 | SF | Raiders | 12 – 32 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R8 | Raiders | 0 – 40 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R4 | Sharks | 36 – 22 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 12th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Timoko, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (2.25 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (2.5 conceded/game). Key man: Nikora, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.75/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 2.5/g (def 17th (weak)) | 2.25/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.25/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 9th) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 3 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 164m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 1.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 90% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 11 | 10 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 640m/g | 792m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.8/g | 20.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 4.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.5% | 84.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 1 | 5 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 525m/g | 553m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.3/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.6% | 92.8% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.15) +33% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27% · Centres 0.75/g (lg 0.67) +12%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.16) +63% · Centres 0.96/g (lg 0.67) +43% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.26) +31%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/13g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/5g (0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 14/39g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 17/41g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 3 in 3g | 9/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·1·2·0·1) | 2/5g | 11/21g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 5% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/27g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | INT | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/25g | 28/122g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 5/46g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/17g | 10/83g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 19/51g | 30% | — | 🏉 23' 32' |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | 2R | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (2·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/35g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/21g | 6% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 2/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 2 in 4g | 10/10g (1·0·1·2·2·2·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 3/6g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Mawene Hiroti | CE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 23% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 1 in 4g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 9/11g | 2/4g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 0/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 2/7g | 28% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 3 in 4g | 7/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/11g | 2/5g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 39' |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 16 | Toby Rudolf | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Tuku Hau Tapuha | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1451 · Sharks 1553 · ELO difference: 101 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1121 (best 1251) | 1071 (best 1272) | Raiders +50 |
| Backs | 954 (best 1061) | 1033 (best 1112) | Sharks +79 |
| Halves | 1094 (best 1094) | 1234 (best 1234) | Sharks +140 |
| Hooker | 1177 | 934 | Raiders +243 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Sharks predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)