AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 46. Raiders bucked the trend — Sharks historically win 75% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Raiders defied the model's 59% prediction for Sharks — a notable result. The predicted margin of 4.7 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 44 — within 1 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Raiders
41%
Sharks
59%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Raiders are far from out of this at 41%. Raiders are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including Forward Pack, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency — but Sharks counter with ELO Difference and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Sharks carry a 101-point ELO rating advantage (1553 vs 1451). Recent form favours Raiders with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 4.7 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.50
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.7%
Line / Spread
Sharks +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.7%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | WWWLL | 24.0 |
Sharks | WWLLL | 19.4 |
Avg Conceded
24.8
Raiders
19.6
Sharks
Avg Margin
-0.8
Raiders
-0.2
Sharks
Run Metres
1615
Raiders
1682
Sharks
Line Breaks
4.8
Raiders
5.0
Sharks
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Todd Smith officiates, Sharks have won 9 of 12 games (75%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Raiders's 6 from 14 (43%). That's a 32‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.9 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
45.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Sharks predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -4.7
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