Win Probability
AI Game Review
Raiders defied the model's 59% prediction for Sharks, a notable result. The predicted margin of 4.7 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 46. Raiders bucked the trend, Sharks historically win 67% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
41%
Sharks
59%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Raiders are far from out of this at 41%. Raiders are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency, but Sharks counter with ELO Difference and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Sharks carry a 101-point ELO rating advantage (1553 vs 1451). Recent form favours Raiders with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 4.7 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.50
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.7%
Line / Spread
Sharks +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.7%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | W W W L L | 24.0 |
Sharks | W W L L L | 19.4 |
Avg Conceded
24.8
Raiders
19.6
Sharks
Avg Margin
-0.8
Raiders
-0.2
Sharks
Run Metres
1615
Raiders
1682
Sharks
Line Breaks
4.8
Raiders
5.0
Sharks
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Sharks have won 10 of 15 games (67%), significantly stronger than Raiders's 7 from 15 (47%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Sharks get a +0.5 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Raiders's -0.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Sharks predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -4.7
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.