# Rabbitohs v Roosters — NRL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 20 – 14 Roosters

_Rabbitohs hold off a fast-finishing Roosters._

Half time: 8 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 64% / Roosters 36% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 04 Apr, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Tevita Tatola (11'), Jye Gray (64' Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Tass (71') · Roosters: Sandon Smith (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Billy Smith (45'), Dominic Young (53' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 64% | Won |
| Roosters | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.8 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Rabbitohs 20–14 Roosters in NRL Round 5 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Roosters did plenty right and still walked away with nothing. That's the frustrating bit for them, and it started early: Sandon Smith crossed in the 7th minute to put the visitors up 4-0, and for long stretches they looked the sharper side with ball in hand. They just couldn't turn that superiority into the scoreboard advantage that mattered.

Look at the underlying numbers and the Roosters win most of the physical battles. Six line breaks to three. Forty tackle breaks to twenty-four. Sixteen offloads to six, the kind of contact-arithmetic that should be winning you a game comfortably. Their defence was excellent too, an effective tackle rate of 92.6% compared to the Rabbitohs' 82%. On paper, this reads like a Roosters win.

But paper doesn't account for discipline, and the Roosters had none of it when it counted. Sixteen errors to South Sydney's seven. Eleven penalties conceded to six. A completion rate of just 65% against the home side's 86%. All that line-breaking talent went begging because they kept handing the ball back, and against a Rabbitohs outfit content to sit in and grind, that's a losing formula.

The scoreboard tells the arm-wrestle story well enough. Roosters led 8-14 after Dominic Young's try in the 52nd minute, following Billy Smith's four-pointer seven minutes into the second half. That was the high-water mark. From there the Rabbitohs' patience paid off: Jye Gray got over in the 64th minute to make it 12-14, and Isaiah Tass finished it in the 70th to put South Sydney in front for good, 18-14, before the final margin settled at 20-14.

Tevita Tatola's earlier try in the 11th minute had levelled things at 4-6 and set up an 8-6 Rabbitohs lead at the break, a lead built on completion and control rather than line-breaking flair. South Sydney kept the ball for 53% of the game and made it count, while their 664 kicking metres to the Roosters' 474 says plenty about how they used the boot to squeeze territory out of a game they weren't dominating physically.

None of this was a shock given the form lines. The Roosters came in having lost four of their last five, conceding an average of 34.8 points a game, and their season-long backline rating of 1079 looked good next to South Sydney's 915, but a strong halves pairing for the Rabbitohs (1178 to 972) proved the more useful asset when it came to game management.

Alphr's model had Rabbitohs favourites at 64% and picked the margin at 2.8 points, not far off the actual six. The total score prediction of 39 landed within five of the final 34, and the under on 48.5 came in easily.

Wins and misses, all of it. But on this one, the model's read on how tight and error-driven the contest would be held up better than the Roosters' attacking stats suggested it should.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| Roosters | 6 | 8 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 65% |
| 1,595 | Run metres | **1,670** |
| 513 | Post-contact metres | **526** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **40** |
| 6 | Offloads | **16** |
| 82.0% | Effective tackle % | **92.6%** |
| 40 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| **7** | Errors | 16 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 11 |
| **664** | Kick metres | 474 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Rabbitohs by 2.8 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 34, within 5 points. The model went 6/16 on this match. Rabbitohs covered the 1.5-point line. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 9 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Rabbitohs bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 67% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Sandon Smith (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 11' Try — Tevita Tatola (Rabbitohs) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 45' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 8-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 52' Try — Dominic Young (Roosters) — 8-14 · win-prob swing -19 pts
- 64' Try — Jye Gray (Rabbitohs) — 12-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 70' Try — Isaiah Tass (Rabbitohs) — 18-14 · win-prob swing +7 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.80 (edge +4.4%) — model probability 63.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +25.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 3 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Rabbitohs are the call at 64%, but Roosters stay live at 36%. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Roosters.

Rabbitohs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 2.8, with the two sides combining for about 39. Lean Rabbitohs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 50-20 in 2026 Round 27.

Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 7th against Roosters 15th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 3 · Roosters 7 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 50-20 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 6-6 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 7th · Roosters 15th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 0% · Roosters 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 16W–20L | 44% |
| Roosters | 30W–15L | 67% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 30 of 45 games (67%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 16 from 36 (44%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +-0.4 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Roosters's -0.8. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 21.8pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 23.8pts | Avg Conceded | 34.8pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | -17.2pts |
| 1573.6m | Run Metres | 1538.0m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 337.2 | Tackles | 374.4 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 3W–2L | 21.8 |
| Roosters | 1W–4L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Rabbitohs | 50 – 20 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R2 | Roosters | 26 – 18 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R27 | Roosters | 36 – 6 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R27 | Rabbitohs | 28 – 36 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R3 | Roosters | 48 – 6 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 16th there (2.5 conceded/game). Key man: Gray, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the middle: NRL's 10th-ranked middle attack (1.25 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 14th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Watson, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.25/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.5/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.75/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 10th) | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 5 | 4 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 171m/g | 182m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.9% | 90.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 7 | 8 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 683m/g | 686m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.5/g | 22.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 72.4% | 80.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 1 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 472m/g | 515m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 10.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.8% | 89.9% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.26) +42% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.42/g (lg 0.26) +62% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.22) +23% · Wingers 1.48/g (lg 1.26) +17%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 2/1g | 4/7g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' |
| 2 | Isaiah Tass | WG | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/22g | 28% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | CE | no games | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·1) | 4/8g | 23/39g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/17g | 5/16g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/5g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 9/20g | 34/87g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 4g | 2/6g (1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| 8 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Peter Mamouzelos | HK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/15g | 9% | — | — |
| 10 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 4/56g | 8% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 11 | Keaon Koloamatangi | 2R | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/9g | 10/40g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jai Arrow | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/30g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Sullivan | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Siliva Havili | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/18g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Tallis Duncan | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/13g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Davvy Moale | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/23g | 10% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 0 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·2·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 18/27g | 26/37g | 44% | — | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 2 in 4g | 9/10g (1·2·2·0·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 11/23g | 12/19g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Dominic Young | WG | 4 in 4g | 9/10g (3·1·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1) | 3/4g | 1/3g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| 7 | Chad Townsend | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/14g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/11g | 2/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 8/37g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | Nat Butcher | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 0/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/8g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1460 vs 1449), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@1.80). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1449 · Roosters 1460 · ELO difference: 11 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1101 (best 1232) | 1084 (best 1310) | Rabbitohs +17 |
| Backs | 915 (best 1043) | 1079 (best 1132) | Roosters +164 |
| Halves | 1178 (best 1178) | 972 (best 972) | Rabbitohs +206 |
| Hooker | 978 | 1036 | Roosters +58 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)