AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 9 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Rabbitohs bucked the trend — Roosters historically win 66% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Rabbitohs by 2.8 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 34 — within 5 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
64%
Roosters
36%
AI Match Overview
Rabbitohs hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Roosters are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Rabbitohs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Rabbitohs by 2.8 points with a combined total of 39.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Rabbitohs to Win @1.80
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.4%
Line / Spread
Rabbitohs -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.4%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+25.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | WWWLL | 21.8 |
Roosters | WLLLL | 17.6 |
Avg Conceded
23.8
Rabbitohs
34.8
Roosters
Avg Margin
-2.0
Rabbitohs
-17.2
Roosters
Run Metres
1574
Rabbitohs
1538
Roosters
Line Breaks
4.0
Rabbitohs
5.2
Roosters
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 25 of 38 games (66%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 13 from 30 (43%). That's a 23‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Rabbitohs an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1460 vs 1449), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@1.80).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Rabbitohs predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: +2.8
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.