Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Rabbitohs by 2.8 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 34, within 5 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 9 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Rabbitohs bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 65% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
64%
Roosters
36%
AI Match Overview
Rabbitohs hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Roosters are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Rabbitohs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Rabbitohs by 2.8 points with a combined total of 39.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Rabbitohs to Win @1.80
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.4%
Line / Spread
Rabbitohs -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.4%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+25.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | W W W L L | 21.8 |
Roosters | W L L L L | 17.6 |
Avg Conceded
23.8
Rabbitohs
34.8
Roosters
Avg Margin
-2.0
Rabbitohs
-17.2
Roosters
Run Metres
1574
Rabbitohs
1538
Roosters
Line Breaks
4.0
Rabbitohs
5.2
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 26 of 40 games (65%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 15 from 33 (45%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Rabbitohs get a +-0.9 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Roosters's -1.4. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1460 vs 1449), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@1.80).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Rabbitohs predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: +2.8
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