Win Probability
AI Game Review
Cowboys defied the model's 69% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.1 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 40, within 1 points. Cowboys trailed 18–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–22. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Panthers
69%
Cowboys
31%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. The model sees Panthers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 77-point ELO rating advantage (1553 vs 1476). Recent form favours Panthers with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Panthers by 12.1 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.22
Lost ✗
Edge
-14.0%
Line / Spread
Panthers -13.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-14.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Panthers | W W L L L | 25.6 |
Cowboys | W L L L L | 17.6 |
Avg Conceded
24.8
Panthers
30.0
Cowboys
Avg Margin
0.8
Panthers
-12.4
Cowboys
Run Metres
1740
Panthers
1596
Cowboys
Line Breaks
6.0
Panthers
4.2
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
BalancedPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Peter Gough, Panthers 14W–6L (70%) and Cowboys 17W–9L (65%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Panthers predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +12.1
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