AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The 45-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Eels's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile — home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 57% prediction for Dragons — a notable result. The margin model was sharp — predicting Dragons by 1.5 vs the actual margin of 1 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 45 — within 1 points. Eels trailed 8–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 23–22. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Eels
43%
Dragons
57%
AI Match Overview
Dragons hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 43%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Dragons carry a 110-point ELO rating advantage (1430 vs 1321). The margin model predicts Dragons by 1.5 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dragons to Win @1.55
Lost ✗
Edge
-7.6%
Line / Spread
Dragons +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-7.6%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WLLLL | 20.8 |
Dragons | WLLLL | 24.4 |
Avg Conceded
31.2
Eels
26.2
Dragons
Avg Margin
-10.4
Eels
-1.8
Dragons
Run Metres
1563
Eels
1710
Dragons
Line Breaks
4.2
Eels
5.2
Dragons
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Gerard Sutton officiates — Eels 13W–23L (36%) and Dragons 11W–22L (33%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Eels an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Dragons predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -1.5
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