# Eels v Dragons — NRL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 23 – 22 Dragons

_Eels roar back to slither past Dragons._

Half time: 8 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 43% / Dragons 57% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 05 Apr, 03:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Josh Addo-Carr (25' Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Iongi (57'), Kitione Kautoga (63') · Dragons: Clinton Gutherson (17' 1st Tipped 🎯), Christian Tuipulotu (35' Tipped ⚡), Clinton Gutherson (45' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 57% | Lost |
| Eels | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.5 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Eels 23–22 Dragons in NRL Round 5 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Dragons favourites at 57%, tipped to win by 1.5 points on a combined total of 46. Eels won it 23-22. The margin read was almost bang on, the winner was not. That's the sort of night it was.

The ladder logic pointed at Dragons for good reason. Their halves and forwards rated below the Eels, sure, but the hooker spot was theirs by a distance, 1099 to 904, and their recent form had them scoring more and conceding less across the last five. Eels came in leaking 31.2 points a game with an average margin of minus 10.4. None of that screamed comeback.

And for a half, it played out that way. Clinton Gutherson opened the scoring for Dragons at 16 minutes, Josh Addo-Carr hit back for Eels at 24, then Gutherson and Christian Tuipulotu ran in two more before the break to have Dragons up 14-8. Gutherson's double either side of half-time did the damage, the second one arriving three minutes after the restart to stretch it to 8-18.

Eels didn't panic. Isaiah Iongi crossed at 56 minutes, Kitione Kautoga followed at 62 to drag it back to 18-20, and Zac Lomax settled it with a field goal in the 83rd minute. From two tries down to a one-point win off the boot, that's as tight as finals footy gets without actually being finals footy.

The stat sheet tells you how they clawed it back. Eels ran 54% of the possession and completed at 83% to the Dragons' 73%, coughing up just 9 errors to 12. That's the disciplined, high-possession footy you'd expect from the stronger halves pairing, 1120 to 1012 in the pre-match ratings, finally showing up when it mattered. They also won the arm-wrestle in the middle, 608 post-contact metres to 542 and 1,811 run metres to 1,610.

Dragons were the more dangerous side with ball in hand, no argument there. Seven line breaks to six, 31 tackle breaks to 23, and they made Eels work for everything in defence. The home side missed 31 tackles at 86.5% efficiency, against the Dragons' tighter 89.5%. Dragons also had the edge in the air, kicking for 537 metres to the Eels' 472, and shaded the offload count 12 to 11. On paper, that's the profile of a side that should have been further ahead than 14-8 at the break, and for a while it was.

What actually decided it was Eels cleaning up their own house. Fewer errors, better completion, more of the footy, and when it mattered most, Zac Lomax's one-pointer with three minutes left on the clock. Penalties were shared evenly at six apiece, so there's no complaint to be made there either way.

For Alphr's model, this one's a mixed bag. The margin prediction of Dragons by 1.5 landed almost perfectly against the actual gap of 1 point, and the projected total of 46 was only 1 off the real total of 45. But picking the winner is the whole point of the exercise, and 57% for Dragons didn't get there. The under 48.5 total call was right, at least. Across this match the model finished 5 from 16, a reminder that even when the numbers are close, footy still finds a way to make you look silly on the one that counts, the final score.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| Dragons | 14 | 8 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **83%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| **1,811** | Run metres | 1,610 |
| **608** | Post-contact metres | 542 |
| 6 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 23 | Tackle breaks | **31** |
| 11 | Offloads | **12** |
| 86.5% | Effective tackle % | **89.5%** |
| 31 | Missed tackles | **23** |
| **9** | Errors | 12 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 472 | Kick metres | **537** |

**Model Report Card**

Eels defied the model's 57% prediction for Dragons, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dragons by 1.5 vs the actual margin of 1 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 45, within 1 points. Eels trailed 8–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 23–22. The model went 5/16 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The 45-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Eels's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 16' Try — Clinton Gutherson (Dragons) — 2-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 24' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 6-8 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 34' Try — Christian Tuipulotu (Dragons) — 8-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 45' Try — Clinton Gutherson (Dragons) — 8-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 56' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 12-20 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 62' Try — Kitione Kautoga (Eels) — 18-20 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 83' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Zac Lomax (Eels) — 23-22 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dragons to win @ $1.55 (edge -7.6%) — model probability 56.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 2 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dragons are the call at 57%, but Eels stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dragons sit 110 ELO points clear, 1430 to 1321.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Dragons by 1.5, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Eels have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Dragons took the most recent meeting 24-22 in 2026 Round 27.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Eels 17th against Dragons 11th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 6 · Dragons 4 |
| Last meeting | Dragons 24-22 |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 17th · Dragons 11th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Dragons 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 14W–27L | 34% |
| Dragons | 11W–24L | 31% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Eels 14W–27L (34%) and Dragons 11W–24L (31%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.8pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 31.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.2pts |
| -10.4pts | Avg Margin | -1.8pts |
| 1562.8m | Run Metres | 1710.4m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 327.4 | Tackles | 364.4 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 1W–4L | 20.8 |
| Dragons | 1W–4L | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Dragons | 24 – 22 | Eels |
| 2026 | R3 | Eels | 30 – 20 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R17 | Dragons | 34 – 20 | Eels |
| 2024 | R26 | Eels | 44 – 40 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R23 | Eels | 26 – 20 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 16th-ranked middle attack (0.5 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (2.67 conceded/game). Key man: Iongi, 1 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 12th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Tuipulotu, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.5/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th) | 1.67/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.5/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.67/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.25/g (def 17th (weak)) | 0/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 3 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 132m/g | 127m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.2% | 88% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 16 | 7 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 2.7/g |
| Run Metres | 769m/g | 790m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16/g | 15/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75% | 83.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 0 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 401m/g | 466m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.5/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.9% | 92.5% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — 2nd Rows 0.67/g (lg 0.44) +52% · Props 0.24/g (lg 0.16) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.26) +42%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55% · Hookers 0.23/g (lg 0.15) +53% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.67) +49%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 1 in 4g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 17% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 2 | Sean Russell | WG | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 12/22g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 12/36g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Zac Lomax | CE | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 36% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (0·0·2·2·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 8/6g | 4/9g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 14/56g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Dean Hawkins | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 7% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/13g | 1/31g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 9/72g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Shaun Lane | 2R | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 7/58g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/18g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 2/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Luca Moretti | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 0 in 3g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·0·2·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 34/73g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 17' 45' |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 2/2g | 2/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.81 AI 70% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 1 in 3g | 9/10g (1·0·3·1·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 1/3g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 4 in 3g | 11/10g (1·3·1·0·0·1·1·3·1·0) | 3/5g | 2/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/7g | 2/12g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 4/13g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/19g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 4/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/12g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/8g | 1/13g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Dylan Egan | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1321 · Dragons 1430 · ELO difference: 110 in favour of Dragons

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1122 (best 1211) | 1120 (best 1261) | Eels +2 |
| Backs | 914 (best 1032) | 965 (best 1057) | Dragons +51 |
| Halves | 1120 (best 1120) | 1012 (best 1012) | Eels +107 |
| Hooker | 904 | 1099 | Dragons +195 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dragons |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Eels |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Eels |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Dragons predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)