Win Probability
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 57% prediction for Dragons, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dragons by 1.5 vs the actual margin of 1 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 45, within 1 points. Eels trailed 8–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 23–22. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The 45-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Eels's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Eels
43%
Dragons
57%
AI Match Overview
Dragons hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 43%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Dragons carry a 110-point ELO rating advantage (1430 vs 1321). The margin model predicts Dragons by 1.5 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dragons to Win @1.55
Lost ✗
Edge
-7.6%
Line / Spread
Dragons +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-7.6%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | W L L L L | 20.8 |
Dragons | W L L L L | 24.4 |
Avg Conceded
31.2
Eels
26.2
Dragons
Avg Margin
-10.4
Eels
-1.8
Dragons
Run Metres
1563
Eels
1710
Dragons
Line Breaks
4.2
Eels
5.2
Dragons
Referee Indicator
BalancedGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Eels 14W–24L (37%) and Dragons 11W–23L (32%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Dragons get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Eels's -1.9. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Dragons predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -1.5
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