# Bulldogs v Knights — NRL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 20 – 0 Knights

_Bulldogs muzzle Knights._

Half time: 2 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 51% / Knights 49% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 06 Apr, 06:15 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Josh Curran (42' 1st), Jack Todd (46'), Kurt Mann (70') · Knights: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 51% | Won |
| Knights | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.0 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 20–0 Knights in NRL Round 5 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six hundred and thirty four. That's the gap in run metres between Bulldogs and Knights, 1,935 to 1,301, and it's about as tidy an explanation as you'll get for a 20-0 scoreline at Accor Stadium.

It didn't look like a blowout early. Bulldogs led 2-0 at the break, the kind of scoreline that tells you both defences were doing their job and not much else. Then the second half turned into a different contest entirely. Josh Curran crossed in the 41st minute to make it 6-0, Phoenix Crossland was sent to the sin bin for the Knights moments later, and Jack Todd cashed in with a try of his own to push it to 12-0 inside the same five minutes. Kurt Mann added the third in the 70th, and from there it was just about managing the clock.

The Bulldogs didn't dominate every column, but they won the ones that count. Possession sat at 57% to 43%, completion rate was 78% to 76%, and those two numbers together meant more sets, more chances, more pressure on a Knights defence that had to make do with less ball all night. Post-contact metres told the same story in miniature: 710 to 449. That's a side getting go-forward after the tackle starts, and it wears a defence down over eighty minutes.

Curran, Todd and Mann all got their names on the sheet, and Curran's opener set the tone for what followed. Bulldogs also edged the tackle breaks, 37 to 34, and offloaded eleven times to the Knights' eight, which is generally what a line-break count of 2 to 1 looks like when you break it down.

The Knights weren't hopeless in the arm-wrestle. Their completion rate wasn't far off (76% to 78%), their effective tackle percentage was actually the better of the two at 87.8% to 87.1%, and they out-kicked the Bulldogs for metres, 588 to 571. None of it mattered without the ball in hand often enough, and with only 1,301 run metres to work with, there was never enough territory to turn that discipline into points.

The positional numbers going in hinted at a split contest, and that's roughly what turned up. The Knights carried the stronger forward pack rating, 1089 to 1003, and a big edge at hooker, 1058 to 794. But the Bulldogs' halves rated miles ahead, 1275 to 1068, and on the night it was direction and execution in the middle of the field that decided things, not who won the collision count on paper.

Alphr's model had Bulldogs favourites at 51% and picked the right side, but the margin call was nowhere near it, tipping a 4-point win in a 47-point game.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 2 | 18 | 20 |
| Knights | 0 | 0 | 0 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **57%** | Possession | 43% |
| **78%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **1,935** | Run metres | 1,301 |
| **710** | Post-contact metres | 449 |
| **2** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 34 |
| **11** | Offloads | 8 |
| 87.1% | Effective tackle % | **87.8%** |
| **34** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| **14** | Errors | 15 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 571 | Kick metres | **588** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.0 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 20 points came in 27 points lower than the predicted 47. Bulldogs led 2–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 2/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 6.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 20 points was 23 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 56% win rate under this referee. Bulldogs's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 41' Try — Josh Curran (Bulldogs) — 6-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 45' Sin Bin — Phoenix Crossland (Knights) — 6-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 45' Try — Jack Todd (Bulldogs) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 70' Try — Kurt Mann (Bulldogs) — 18-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.46 (edge -16.8%) — model probability 50.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -16.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 4 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Bulldogs and Knights. The model can't split them, landing on Bulldogs at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 125 ELO points clear, 1590 to 1465. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Knights.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Bulldogs by 4.0, with the two sides combining for about 47. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 24-16 in 2026 Round 4.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 1st against Knights 8th.

Knights come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 4 · Knights 6 |
| Last meeting | Knights 24-16 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 1st · Knights 8th |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 100% · Knights 0% |
| Rest gap | Bulldogs 7d · Knights 14d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 23W–18L | 56% |
| Knights | 19W–27L | 41% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ashley Klein officiates, Bulldogs have won 23 of 41 games (56%), significantly stronger than Knights's 19 from 46 (41%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 14.4pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| 8.8pts | Avg Margin | -1.6pts |
| 1656.8m | Run Metres | 1796.0m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 349.0 | Tackles | 382.8 |
| 8.6 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 4W–1L | 25.2 |
| Knights | 3W–2L | 14.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Bulldogs | 16 – 24 | Knights |
| 2024 | R13 | Knights | 2 – 32 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R7 | Bulldogs | 36 – 12 | Knights |
| 2023 | R24 | Knights | 42 – 6 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R18 | Bulldogs | 0 – 66 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.25 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 7th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Tracey, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 9th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Best, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 9th) | 1.33/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.25/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.33/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 0 | 1 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 128m/g | 192m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83% | 84.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 9 | 6 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 756m/g | 799m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.5/g | 28.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.7% | 78.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 1 | 1 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 466m/g | 551m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.15) +0% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.44) -2%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Centres 0.83/g (lg 0.67) +24% · 2nd Rows 0.53/g (lg 0.44) +20% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 2/11g | 24% | — | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 3 in 4g | 7/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 2/2g | 3/11g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 12/18g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 5/13g | 9/26g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Bailey Hayward | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/9g | 3% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/28g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 4/36g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Josh Curran | 2R | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/12g | 12% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 4/15g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/21g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 7/21g | 18% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Todd | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 46' |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | James Schiller | WG | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (0·2·1·2·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/18g | 15/38g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 7/6g | 5/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 10/10g (0·4·0·1·3·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Thomas Cant | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Tyson Frizell | 2R | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/22g | 6/21g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Adam Elliott | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/45g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Hetherington | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jermaine McEwen | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Mat Croker | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1590 · Knights 1465 · ELO difference: 125 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1003 (best 1263) | 1089 (best 1274) | Knights +86 |
| Backs | 1052 (best 1107) | 1006 (best 1070) | Bulldogs +46 |
| Halves | 1275 (best 1275) | 1068 (best 1068) | Bulldogs +207 |
| Hooker | 794 | 1058 | Knights +264 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)