Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.0 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 20 points came in 27 points lower than the predicted 47. Bulldogs led 2–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 20 points was 24 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 57% win rate under this referee. Bulldogs's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
51%
Knights
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Bulldogs a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Bulldogs carry a 125-point ELO rating advantage (1590 vs 1465). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Knights. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 4.0 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.46
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.8%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-16.8%
Total Points
Over 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | W W W W L | 25.2 |
Knights | W W W L L | 14.4 |
Avg Conceded
16.4
Bulldogs
16.0
Knights
Avg Margin
8.8
Bulldogs
-1.6
Knights
Run Metres
1657
Bulldogs
1796
Knights
Line Breaks
5.0
Bulldogs
4.8
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours BulldogsAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Ashley Klein officiates, Bulldogs have won 23 of 40 games (57%), significantly stronger than Knights's 16 from 41 (39%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Knights get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Bulldogs's +0.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +4.0
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