# Broncos v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 46 – 24 Wests Tigers

_Broncos buck off Wests Tigers._

Half time: 14 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 65% / Wests Tigers 35% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 05 Apr, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Jesse Arthars (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Xavier Willison (37'), Xavier Willison (41'), Adam Reynolds (44'), Jesse Arthars (58' 1st Tipped 🎯), Billy Walters (60'), Gehamat Shibasaki (70' Tipped ⚡) · Wests Tigers: Luke Laulilii (14' Tipped ⚡), Sunia Turuva (26' Tipped ⚡), Starford To'a (31'), Sione Fainu (51'), Starford To'a (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 65% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.9 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Broncos 46–24 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 5 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Broncos winning by 9.9. They won by 22. It had the total at 42. The teams put up 70. So the read on the winner was fine, the read on the margin wasn't, and that's the whole story of this one in a nutshell.

The 65% chance on Broncos backed itself in, credit where it's due. The halves rating going in, 1216 to 1043, was the biggest mismatch on the sheet, and it showed. Adam Reynolds got his name on the scoresheet, and a Broncos spine that outrated Wests Tigers at hooker too, 1200 to 1153, had enough about it to control the game when it counted.

Early on though, this didn't look like a 22-point game. Jesse Arthars opened the scoring in the 4th minute, but Wests Tigers hit back through Luke Laulilii, then Sunia Turuva, then Starford To'a, and led 12-6 by the half-hour mark. Brendan Piakura went to the sin bin in the 19th minute and Wests Tigers made Broncos pay for it. At that point the form lines made sense: Wests Tigers came in with a touch more average run metres over their last five, 1622.4 to 1608.6, and it was showing on the field.

Then the wheels turned. Xavier Willison scored twice in the space of four minutes either side of half-time, Reynolds crossed soon after, and Broncos went from 12-6 down to 24-12 up inside about fifteen minutes of match time. That's the passage that decided it. Wests Tigers never got back within single figures again.

The stat sheet tells a split story. Wests Tigers were the tidier side by a distance, completing at 82% to 72% and coughing up just 9 errors to Broncos' 14. They shaded possession too, 51% to 49%, and edged the run metres count narrowly, 1400 to 1367. On paper that's usually enough to win a game.

But Broncos did the damage that matters when the ball got loose. Five line breaks to four, 33 tackle breaks apiece, and a big post-contact metres edge, 498 to 426, meaning Broncos were harder to stop once they'd been touched. Eight offloads to five kept the ball alive when Wests Tigers had it shut down. Errors and penalties went against Broncos on the ledger, 14 to 9 and 9 to 6, but none of it mattered once the tries started stacking up.

Wests Tigers didn't fold. Starford To'a scored twice, including one in the 75th minute to bring it back to 44-22 before he was sin-binned himself in the final minute. Sione Fainu got over too. But four tries against eight is four tries against eight, and Broncos' forward pack rating, 1087 to 1016 coming in, showed up exactly where you'd expect: grinding out the extra metres after contact and giving their backs quick ball.

So the model's headline call was right, and the market number backed it in, Broncos covering the 14.5 with room to spare. The margin projection though missed by more than double what it predicted, and a 42-point total forecast fell 28 points short of what actually got put on the board. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 14 | 32 | 46 |
| Wests Tigers | 12 | 12 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 72% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| 1,367 | Run metres | **1,400** |
| **498** | Post-contact metres | 426 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 33 | Tackle breaks | 33 |
| **8** | Offloads | 5 |
| 84.9% | Effective tackle % | **85.4%** |
| 33 | Missed tackles | 33 |
| 14 | Errors | **9** |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **6** |
| 368 | Kick metres | **379** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.9 but the actual margin was 22 points. The game's 70 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 42. Broncos led 14–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 7/16 on this match. Broncos covered the 14.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 23 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Broncos's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Broncos have a 50% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 14' Try — Luke Laulilii (Wests Tigers) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 19' Sin Bin — Brendan Piakura (Broncos) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 26' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 6-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 31' Try — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 6-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 37' Try — Xavier Willison (Broncos) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 41' Try — Xavier Willison (Broncos) — 18-12 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 44' Try — Adam Reynolds (Broncos) — 24-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 50' Try — Sione Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 26-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 57' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 30-18 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 60' Try — Billy Walters (Broncos) — 36-18 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 70' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 42-18 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 75' Try — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 44-22 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 79' Sin Bin — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 44-22 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.22 (edge -21.7%) — model probability 65.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -21.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 10 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Broncos here: 65% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 126 ELO points clear, 1516 to 1390. Form leans Broncos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Wests Tigers.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Broncos by 9.9, with the two sides combining for about 42. Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Broncos took the most recent meeting 21-20 in 2026 Round 7.

Broncos have won 7 straight; Broncos are 10-3 at home this year. Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Broncos 3rd against Wests Tigers 9th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 6 · Wests Tigers 4 |
| Last meeting | Broncos 21-20 |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos at home | 10-3 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 3rd · Wests Tigers 9th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 100% · Wests Tigers 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 2W–2L | 50% |
| Wests Tigers | 1W–8L | 11% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Broncos have won 2 of 4 games (50%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 9 (11%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (4 games for Broncos).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Wests Tigers get a +-0.8 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Broncos's -1.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | 0.0pts |
| 1608.6m | Run Metres | 1622.4m |
| 5.6 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 329.6 | Tackles | 328.4 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 3W–2L | 26.0 |
| Wests Tigers | 2W–3L | 24.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R7 | Wests Tigers | 20 – 21 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R8 | Wests Tigers | 10 – 34 | Broncos |
| 2023 | R5 | Broncos | 46 – 12 | Wests Tigers |
| 2022 | R20 | Broncos | 18 – 32 | Wests Tigers |
| 2021 | R18 | Broncos | 24 – 42 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 3rd there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Arthars, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 11th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 11th) | 1.25/g (att 10th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.25/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 2 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 107m/g | 222m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.2% | 81.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 7 | 10 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 700m/g | 663m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.5/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.2% | 79.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 601m/g | 577m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.8/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.26) +42% · Fullbacks 0.6/g (lg 0.44) +36% · Wingers 1.69/g (lg 1.25) +35%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36% · Centres 0.67/g (lg 0.67) +0% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.15) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 1 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 13/26g | 48% | — | — |
| 2 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 4 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·3·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 26/42g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.58 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·2·1·0·1) | 3/5g | 35/67g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 2/8g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 5 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·3·1·0) | 1/5g | 12/39g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.46 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 58' |
| 6 | Ben Hunt | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 25/104g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/22g | 6/48g | 18% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/55g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 4/31g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 8/69g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Gosiewski | 2R | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 3/10g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/17g | 13% | — | — |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/45g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/41g | 12% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 15 | Corey Jensen | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/39g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Xavier Willison | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/19g | 16% | — | 🏉 37' 41' |
| 17 | Jaiyden Hunt | INT | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 5% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 5 in 4g | 8/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·3·2·0) | 2/5g | 1/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| 3 | Adam Doueihi | CE | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 6/8g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 3/6g | 26% | — | 🏉 31' 75' |
| 5 | Luke Laulilii | WG | no games | 2/5g (1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| 6 | Lachlan Galvin | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Latu Fainu | HB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.25 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 6/17g | 28% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Bird | 2R | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/16g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Sione Fainu | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 51' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1516 · Wests Tigers 1390 · ELO difference: 126 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1087 (best 1308) | 1016 (best 1344) | Broncos +71 |
| Backs | 998 (best 1088) | 1074 (best 1137) | Wests Tigers +76 |
| Halves | 1216 (best 1216) | 1043 (best 1043) | Broncos +172 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1153 | Broncos +47 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Broncos predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r5-broncos-v-wests-tigers
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)