Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.9 but the actual margin was 22 points. The game's 70 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 42. Broncos led 14–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 23 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Broncos's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Broncos have a 50% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
65%
Wests Tigers
35%
AI Match Overview
Broncos are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Broncos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Broncos carry a 126-point ELO rating advantage (1516 vs 1390). Recent form favours Broncos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Broncos by 9.9 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
-21.7%
Line / Spread
Broncos -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-21.7%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+27.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | W W W L L | 26.0 |
Wests Tigers | W W L L L | 24.0 |
Avg Conceded
24.8
Broncos
24.0
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
1.2
Broncos
0.0
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1609
Broncos
1622
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
5.6
Broncos
4.6
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Broncos have won 2 of 4 games (50%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 8 (13%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (4 games for Broncos).
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Wests Tigers get a +-1.0 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Broncos's -1.8.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Broncos predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +9.9
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