# Warriors v Roosters — NRL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 14 – 6 Roosters

_Warriors fight back to march past Roosters._

Half time: 4 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 55% / Roosters 45% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Fri, 21 Mar, 06:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Ali Leiataua (25' Tipped ⚡), Chanel Harris-Tavita (65'), Ali Leiataua (70' Tipped ⚡) · Roosters: Naufahu Whyte (21' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 55% | Won |
| Roosters | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.3 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 14–6 Roosters in NRL Round 3 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Roosters led for most of the night before the Warriors worked out how to close the door. Naufahu Whyte crossed in the 21st minute to put the visitors up 4-0, and when Ali Leiataua hit back four minutes later the margin was a single converted try, 6-4 to Roosters at the break. That's how it stayed through half-time, a game hanging on one score either way.

It took until the 65th minute for the Warriors to actually get their noses in front. Chanel Harris-Tavita crashed over to make it 8-6, and five minutes later Leiataua grabbed his second to push it to 12-6. Suddenly a game that had been a coin toss for 65 minutes had a gap in it, and the Warriors held that gap to the finish for the 14-6 win.

The stat sheet explains why the Roosters could lead early but not hold on. They broke the line five times to three and racked up 40 tackle breaks to 33, which is exactly what you'd expect from a backline rated 1091 against the Warriors' 976 coming in. But footwork off the back of a tackle doesn't count for much if you're handing the ball back every few sets. Roosters coughed it up 13 times to the Warriors' 8, and their completion rate sat at 70% against the home side's 86%. That gap did the damage.

Warriors also won the arm-wrestle up front in the areas that matter after contact. They ran for 2,030 metres to 1,811 and picked up 730 post-contact metres, the kind of number that comes from repeated go-forward rather than one big carry. Possession sat at 53% their way too, which meant more chances to convert field position into points, and eventually they did exactly that in the back half of the game.

It wasn't a defensive masterclass from the home side, worth saying. Roosters had the better effective tackle percentage, 91.6% to 89.1%, and the Warriors missed 40 tackles to 33. If Roosters had had the ball more, those misses would have cost more than they did. Instead it was Warriors' halves pairing, rated 1314 against Roosters' 1095 pre-match, pulling the strings often enough to make the extra possession count.

The form lines going in had these two closer than the ladder might suggest, both sides two wins from their last five, but Roosters had been leaking nearly six more points a game than the Warriors on average. That trend showed up again here, just delayed by a slow start.

Alphr's model had Warriors favourites at 55%, tipping them by 3.3 points on a combined total of 44. The lean was right, the shape wasn't: this finished an 8-point Warriors win on just 20 total points, 24 fewer than tipped, with the under call landing and the margin call closer than the low-scoring nature of the game might have suggested. Four from sixteen on the finer detail is a rough night out for the model, but the two calls that mattered, home side to win, total to go under, both stood up.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 4 | 10 | 14 |
| Roosters | 6 | 0 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 70% |
| **2,030** | Run metres | 1,811 |
| **730** | Post-contact metres | 579 |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 33 | Tackle breaks | **40** |
| **5** | Offloads | 3 |
| 89.1% | Effective tackle % | **91.6%** |
| 40 | Missed tackles | **33** |
| **8** | Errors | 13 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 695 | Kick metres | **708** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 55% probability. The predicted margin of 3.3 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The game's 20 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 44. Warriors trailed 4–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–6. The model went 4/16 on this match. Warriors covered the 2.5-point line. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 20 points was 23 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Warriors bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 60% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Warriors's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 21' Try — Naufahu Whyte (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 25' Try — Ali Leiataua (Warriors) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 65' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 70' Try — Ali Leiataua (Warriors) — 12-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.74 (edge +2.4%) — model probability 54.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 3 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 55%, but Roosters stay live at 45%. The ratings say otherwise: Roosters sit 95 ELO points clear, 1537 to 1441, so the model is backing Warriors against the ratings gap.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Halves Control, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Warriors by 3.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 42-18 in 2026 Round 1.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 11th against Roosters 13th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 2 · Roosters 8 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 42-18 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 11th · Roosters 13th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 13W–23L | 36% |
| Roosters | 43W–29L | 60% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ashley Klein officiates, Roosters have won 43 of 72 games (60%), significantly stronger than Warriors's 13 from 36 (36%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Warriors get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 24.0pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 35.2pts |
| -6.0pts | Avg Margin | -11.2pts |
| 1642.6m | Run Metres | 1450.2m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 332.2 | Tackles | 347.2 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 2W–3L | 20.4 |
| Roosters | 2W–3L | 24.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Warriors | 42 – 18 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R10 | Roosters | 38 – 18 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R9 | Warriors | 0 – 14 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R2 | Roosters | 20 – 12 | Warriors |
| 2022 | R6 | Roosters | 22 – 14 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 11th-ranked middle attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 11th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Nicoll-Klokstad, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 15th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 20 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.83/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.63/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.54/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.96/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 1.25/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) | 1.44/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 12 | 14 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 198m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.2% | 84.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 47 · 68 | 85 · 45 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 706m/g | 721m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.4/g | 21.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 4.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.2% | 81.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 13 | 30 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 634m/g | 492m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.3/g | 9.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 89.5% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.27) +7% · Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.21) -5%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.4) +10% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.21) +0% · Wingers 1.25/g (lg 1.26) -1%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 6/20g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Taine Tuaupiki | WG | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' 70' |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/23g | 12% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 11/47g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.39 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 8/18g | 12% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/10g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 2/24g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 3/11g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/15g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/18g | 3/21g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jackson Ford | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/19g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·2·1·2·0·0·0) | 8/15g | 2/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 57% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 2 in 2g | 10/10g (0·1·1·2·2·0·1·1·0·2) | 3/13g | 0/3g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.49 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | CE | 1 in 2g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Dominic Young | WG | 3 in 2g | 9/10g (1·0·3·1·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.42 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 7 | Chad Townsend | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/13g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Spencer Leniu | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1537 vs 1441), but the market favours Warriors (@1.74). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1441 · Roosters 1537 · ELO difference: 95 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1002 (best 1278) | 1027 (best 1285) | Roosters +26 |
| Backs | 976 (best 1089) | 1091 (best 1157) | Roosters +115 |
| Halves | 1314 (best 1314) | 1095 (best 1095) | Warriors +219 |
| Hooker | 1273 | 1200 | Warriors +73 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Warriors predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)