Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 55% probability. The predicted margin of 3.3 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The game's 20 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 44. Warriors trailed 4–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–6. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 20 points was 24 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Warriors bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 60% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Warriors's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
55%
Roosters
45%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Roosters are far from out of this at 45%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Roosters carry a 95-point ELO rating advantage (1537 vs 1441). The margin model predicts Warriors by 3.3 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.74
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Line / Spread
Warriors -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.4%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | W W L L L | 20.4 |
Roosters | W W L L L | 24.0 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
Warriors
35.2
Roosters
Avg Margin
-6.0
Warriors
-11.2
Roosters
Run Metres
1643
Warriors
1450
Roosters
Line Breaks
4.4
Warriors
5.0
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Ashley Klein officiates, Roosters have won 42 of 70 games (60%), significantly stronger than Warriors's 13 from 35 (37%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Warriors get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.3.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1537 vs 1441), but the market favours Warriors (@1.74).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Warriors predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +3.3
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