# Titans v Knights — NRL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 26 – 6 Knights

_Titans flex on Knights._

Half time: 12 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 53% / Knights 47% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sat, 22 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Jojo Fifita (16' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jayden Campbell (33' Tipped ⚡), Beau Fermor (55'), David Fifita (68') · Knights: Bradman Best (74' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 53% | Won |
| Knights | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.7 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Titans 26–6 Knights in NRL Round 3 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten errors against eighteen. That's the number that made Titans 26, Knights 6 at Cbus Super Stadium, and it's about as clean a split as you'll see between two teams playing the same game.

Titans were meant to be the ones under pressure here. Knights walked in on four wins from their last five, Titans on none. The ratings had Knights stronger through the forwards, the backs, the halves, the hooker, every position that's supposed to matter. Alphr's model still had Titans as 53% favourites, tipping a margin of 1.7. On paper it was a coin flip with a slight lean. On the field it wasn't close.

Jojo Fifita got things moving in the 16th minute, and by half-time Titans were up 12-0 without Knights troubling the scoreboard once. Jayden Campbell's try in the 32nd minute did the damage before the break. Then Titans just kept adding to it: Beau Fermor in the 54th, David Fifita in the 67th, and by the time Bradman Best finally got the Knights on the board in the 74th minute it was window dressing on a 26-6 scoreline.

The stat that explains it all is the completion rate. Titans held the ball together at 81%, Knights fell apart at 67%, and that gap is worth more than any line break count. Knights actually won the eye-test stats, more line breaks (4 to 3), more tackle breaks (45 to 39), more offloads (16 to 13). None of it mattered because they kept giving the ball back, eighteen errors to Titans' ten. You can't build pressure when you're handing over possession that often.

Titans made up for their own defensive leakage, missing 45 tackles to Knights' 39, by controlling where the ball actually was. Kick metres tell that story on their own: 670 to 325. Titans pinned Knights deep all day and let field position do the rest, then ground out 638 post-contact metres to Knights' 568, the extra shove after contact that keeps a team on the front foot even when the effective tackle percentage isn't pretty.

For Knights, the form line coming in suggested a side that defends well and doesn't cough the ball up, an average of just 10.6 errors a game. They nearly doubled that here. Whatever was working across their last five didn't show up when it counted, and a backline rated well ahead of Titans on paper managed one try all match.

Alphr's model called the winner right, backing Titans at 53%, and the head-to-head line held with Titans covering the 1.5 points. The under on 50.5 also landed. Where it fell over was the margin, tipped at 1.7 points against an actual 20. The model went 6 from 16 on the finer detail of this one. Picking the right team is one thing. Picking how far they'd run away with it is clearly still a work in progress.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 12 | 14 | 26 |
| Knights | 0 | 6 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 67% |
| **1,690** | Run metres | 1,679 |
| **638** | Post-contact metres | 568 |
| 3 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 39 | Tackle breaks | **45** |
| 13 | Offloads | **16** |
| 82.0% | Effective tackle % | **86.0%** |
| 45 | Missed tackles | **39** |
| **10** | Errors | 18 |
| 10 | Penalties conceded | **8** |
| **670** | Kick metres | 325 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Titans to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.7 but the actual margin was 20 points. Titans led 12–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 6/16 on this match. Titans covered the 1.5-point line. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 15 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Titans bucked the trend, Knights historically win 58% of games under Liam Kennedy, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 16' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 32' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 54' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 18-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 67' Try — David Fifita (Titans) — 24-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 74' Try — Bradman Best (Knights) — 26-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.90 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 53.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Titans by 2 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Titans and Knights. The model can't split them, landing on Titans at 53%. The ratings say otherwise: Knights sit 136 ELO points clear, 1515 to 1379, so the model is backing Titans against the ratings gap. Form leans Knights' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Titans.

On paper Knights shade it, ahead on 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Titans, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has Titans by 1.7, with the two sides combining for about 43. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Knights have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 36-26 in 2026 Round 24.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Titans 12th against Knights 4th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 3 · Knights 7 |
| Last meeting | Knights 36-26 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 12th · Knights 4th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Knights 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Knights

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 3W–13L | 19% |
| Knights | 7W–5L | 58% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Knights have won 7 of 12 games (58%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 16 (19%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Titans get a +0.4 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Knights's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 34.8pts | Avg Conceded | 13.6pts |
| -17.2pts | Avg Margin | 6.8pts |
| 1702.4m | Run Metres | 1893.0m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 351.2 | Tackles | 378.8 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 0W–5L | 17.6 |
| Knights | 4W–1L | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Knights | 36 – 26 | Titans |
| 2026 | R11 | Titans | 12 – 36 | Knights |
| 2025 | R10 | Knights | 20 – 24 | Titans |
| 2024 | R26 | Knights | 36 – 14 | Titans |
| 2024 | R11 | Titans | 24 – 28 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 15th-ranked left edge attack (0.79 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 14th there (1.28 conceded/game). Key man: Fifita, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the middle: NRL's 13th-ranked middle attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (2.58 conceded/game). Key man: Elliott, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.79/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 12th) | 0.92/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.28/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.38/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.58/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.4/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.68/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.42/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.96/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.84/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 15 | 10 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 177m/g | 176m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 61 · 65 | 51 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 749m/g | 775m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.4/g | 23.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 74% | 79.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 27 | 17 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 510m/g | 527m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.7/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 89.8% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.27) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.46) +7% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%
**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.62/g (lg 0.4) +55% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 5/13g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Tony Francis | WG | no games | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 18/57g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Phillip Sami | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 27/55g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Jojo Fifita | WG | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·0·3·0·2·0·2·0·1) | 3/4g | 6/19g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 16' |
| 6 | AJ Brimson | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/7g | 23/54g | 36% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 12/27g | 26% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/64g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/14g | 0/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Klese Haas | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/20g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 8/33g | 32% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 6/29g | 26% | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Randall | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/23g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | David Fifita | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 21/41g | 22% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 16 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Brock Gray | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 8/9g | 4/7g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | James Schiller | WG | 2 in 2g | 9/10g (2·0·2·1·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/17g | 5/8g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 11/13g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.54 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 10/10g (0·0·4·0·1·3·0·1·1·0) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 81% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Brodie Jones | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Tyson Frizell | 2R | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 0/8g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Adam Elliott | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Hetherington | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Cant | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Mat Croker | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Knights hold the ELO advantage (1515 vs 1379), but the market favours Titans (@1.90). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1379 · Knights 1515 · ELO difference: 136 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 975 (best 1272) | 1042 (best 1237) | Knights +67 |
| Backs | 930 (best 1015) | 1170 (best 1200) | Knights +240 |
| Halves | 1062 (best 1062) | 1127 (best 1127) | Knights +64 |
| Hooker | 890 | 983 | Knights +93 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Knights |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Titans predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)