Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Titans to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.7 but the actual margin was 20 points. Titans led 12–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 15 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Titans bucked the trend, Knights historically win 55% of games under Liam Kennedy, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Titans
53%
Knights
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Titans a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Knights are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Titans counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Knights carry a 136-point ELO rating advantage (1515 vs 1379). Recent form favours Knights with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Titans. The margin model predicts Titans by 1.7 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Titans to Win @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.5%
Line / Spread
Titans +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.5%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | L L L L L | 17.6 |
Knights | W W W W L | 20.4 |
Avg Conceded
34.8
Titans
13.6
Knights
Avg Margin
-17.2
Titans
6.8
Knights
Run Metres
1702
Titans
1893
Knights
Line Breaks
4.0
Titans
5.6
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours KnightsLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Knights have won 6 of 11 games (55%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 14 (21%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Titans get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Knights's -1.0.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Knights hold the ELO advantage (1515 vs 1379), but the market favours Titans (@1.90).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Titans predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +1.7
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