Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 72% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Storm by 8.0 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 11 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Storm's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
72%
Panthers
28%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Panthers. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 64-point ELO rating advantage (1679 vs 1615). The margin model predicts Storm by 8.0 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.43
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.2%
Line / Spread
Storm -6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.2%
Total Points
Under 43.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W W W W L | 44.2 |
Panthers | W W W W L | 26.8 |
Avg Conceded
19.2
Storm
17.6
Panthers
Avg Margin
25.0
Storm
9.2
Panthers
Run Metres
1881
Storm
1859
Panthers
Line Breaks
8.8
Storm
5.0
Panthers
Referee Indicator
BalancedAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Storm 30W–14L (68%) and Panthers 28W–12L (70%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Panthers get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Storm's +0.0. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
Storm predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +8.0
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