Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sharks by 13.7 vs the actual margin of 15 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 39, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The 39-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sharks's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sharks
74%
Rabbitohs
26%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Sharks ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sharks carry a 141-point ELO rating advantage (1569 vs 1428). The margin model predicts Sharks by 13.7 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.18
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Line / Spread
Sharks -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Total Points
Under 54.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | W W L L L | 20.0 |
Rabbitohs | W W L L L | 19.4 |
Avg Conceded
24.2
Sharks
28.8
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
-4.2
Sharks
-9.4
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1668
Sharks
1559
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
5.4
Sharks
2.6
Rabbitohs
Referee Indicator
BalancedGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Sharks 26W–21L (55%) and Rabbitohs 33W–24L (58%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Rabbitohs get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Sharks's -0.3. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
74%
Sharks predicted to win by 14 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +13.7
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