# Sharks v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 27 – 12 Rabbitohs

_Sharks sink their teeth into Rabbitohs._

Half time: 20 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 74% / Rabbitohs 26% · Sharks Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 22 Mar, 03:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Nicho Hynes (3' 1st), Briton Nikora (8' Tipped ⚡), KL Iro (20'), William Kennedy (29'), Braydon Trindall (45' Tipped ⚡) · Rabbitohs: Jack Wighton (69'), Jamie Humphreys (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 74% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.7 predicted → 15 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sharks 27–12 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 3 at Sharks Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-nil at the break, and by that stage Sharks Stadium had seen four separate Sharks tries and not much else. Nicho Hynes got it going in the third minute, Briton Nikora followed at the 8, KL Iro crossed at 20 and William Kennedy made it 20-0 at the 29th. Whatever the Rabbitohs planned for the second half, they were forty minutes behind on it before they'd started.

Braydon Trindall put the game further out of reach three minutes into the second stanza, and by then this had stopped being a contest and started being a margin exercise. Sharks led 24-0 before South Sydney had troubled the scoreboard at all. When Jack Wighton finally got the Rabbitohs on the board at the 69th minute it was tidy-up work, and Jamie Humphreys added a second five minutes later. Trindall's field goal in the 79th put the gloss on a 27-12 final. Final score respectable for the Rabbitohs. Match, not so much.

The stats explain why the second half never threatened a comeback. Sharks ran for 1,974 metres to the Rabbitohs' 1,354, and 610 of theirs came after contact, more than the Rabbitohs managed in total post-contact work implies. Forty-eight tackle breaks to 20 tells you Sharks were simply harder to bring down, and 13 offloads kept the ball alive when they were caught. Six line breaks to four, on top of that, means South Sydney's defensive line was being cut open as well as bent.

Where it really fell apart for the Rabbitohs was in defence itself. Effective tackle rate of 84.3% against the Sharks' 90.7% doesn't sound like a chasm until you see the raw number: 48 missed tackles for the Rabbitohs against just 20 for the home side. That's the same figure, mirrored, as the tackle-bust column, and it's not a coincidence. Sharks were completing at 75% with the ball while forcing errors out of a side that could never quite settle into the arm-wrestle.

The one column the Rabbitohs won outright was territory. Their 633 kicking metres against the Sharks' 507 shows a side that spent the second half trying to play field position rather than match line breaks, and it's part of why the last twenty minutes produced two tries. But territory without go-forward doesn't fix a 24-point hole, and their own 1,354 running metres against a possession split of 43% left them without enough ball to make it count.

Going in, the ratings had Sharks at 1569 to the Rabbitohs' 1428, backing them by 13.7 points at 74% probability, with the backline gap of 1180 to 924 the standout mismatch on paper. That backline edge showed up exactly where you'd expect, in the tries and the tackle breaks. The final margin of 15 landed almost on the number, and the 39-point total sat close enough to the projected 42 that nobody's rerunning the model over it. Sharks covered the 14.5 line comfortably, and the under on 54.5 was never in doubt after the first quarter. Wins and misses, this one's filed under wins.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 20 | 7 | 27 |
| Rabbitohs | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **57%** | Possession | 43% |
| **75%** | Completion rate | 71% |
| **1,974** | Run metres | 1,354 |
| **610** | Post-contact metres | 391 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **48** | Tackle breaks | 20 |
| **13** | Offloads | 7 |
| **90.7%** | Effective tackle % | 84.3% |
| **20** | Missed tackles | 48 |
| **11** | Errors | 12 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 507 | Kick metres | **633** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sharks by 13.7 vs the actual margin of 15 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 39, within 3 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Sharks covered the 14.5-point line. The under 54.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The 39-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sharks's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 8' Try — Briton Nikora (Sharks) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 20' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 29' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 20-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 45' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 24-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 69' Try — Jack Wighton (Rabbitohs) — 26-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 74' Try — Jamie Humphreys (Rabbitohs) — 26-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 79' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 27-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.18 (edge -12.0%) — model probability 74.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +31.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 14 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 74% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 141 ELO points clear, 1569 to 1428.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sharks by 13.7, with the two sides combining for about 42. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sharks have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 32-16 in 2026 Round 22.

Sharks are 11-2 at home this year. Rabbitohs are 3-9 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sharks 8th against Rabbitohs 5th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 7 · Rabbitohs 3 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 32-16 |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks at home | 11-2 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 8th · Rabbitohs 5th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Rabbitohs 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 28W–22L | 56% |
| Rabbitohs | 34W–23L | 60% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Sharks 28W–22L (56%) and Rabbitohs 34W–23L (60%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Sharks's -0.5. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 24.2pts | Avg Conceded | 28.8pts |
| -4.2pts | Avg Margin | -9.4pts |
| 1667.8m | Run Metres | 1558.6m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 2.6 |
| 375.2 | Tackles | 325.0 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 2W–3L | 20.0 |
| Rabbitohs | 2W–3L | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Sharks | 32 – 16 | Rabbitohs |
| 2026 | R10 | Rabbitohs | 36 – 12 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R21 | Rabbitohs | 12 – 14 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R22 | Sharks | 20 – 6 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R6 | Rabbitohs | 22 – 34 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.44 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 16th there (1.58 conceded/game). Key man: Mulitalo, 17 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.04 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 4th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Walker, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.44/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 7th) | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.58/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.74/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.04/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 12th) |
| Right | 1.22/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 14 | 18 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 204m/g | 223m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 85.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 63 · 52 | 51 · 73 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 737m/g | 598m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.4/g | 14.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.8% | 74% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 15 | 17 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 487m/g | 573m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.1% | 89.8% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.15) +20% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sharks Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 2 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 2 in 2g | 10/9g (0·1·0·1·2·2·2·0·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.33 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 3 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 1 in 2g | 9/10g (0·3·1·1·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/6g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.30 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·2·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Braden Uele | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Tuku Hau Tapuha | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Isaiah Tass | WG | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 3 | Jack Wighton | CE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 10/20g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Fletcher Myers | Replacement | 0 in 1g | 2/7g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/11g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 8 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Peter Mamouzelos | HK | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 10 | Davvy Moale | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Keaon Koloamatangi | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jai Arrow | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Tallis Duncan | LK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Sullivan | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Siliva Havili | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Tevita Tatola | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1569 · Rabbitohs 1428 · ELO difference: 141 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 989 (best 1287) | 964 (best 1183) | Sharks +25 |
| Backs | 1180 (best 1207) | 924 (best 1035) | Sharks +256 |
| Halves | 1252 (best 1252) | 1186 (best 1186) | Sharks +67 |
| Hooker | 1088 | 1093 | Rabbitohs +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sharks |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Sharks predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r3-sharks-v-rabbitohs
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)