Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.6 but the actual margin was 28 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
68%
Raiders
32%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Raiders. Raiders are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Sea Eagles counter with Halves Control which tips the scales. Recent form favours Raiders with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 3.6 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.52
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.9%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.9%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+25.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | W W L L L | 23.6 |
Raiders | W W W W W | 24.8 |
Avg Conceded
30.0
Sea Eagles
16.8
Raiders
Avg Margin
-6.4
Sea Eagles
8.0
Raiders
Run Metres
1532
Sea Eagles
1657
Raiders
Line Breaks
5.0
Sea Eagles
4.2
Raiders
Referee Indicator
BalancedGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Sea Eagles 21W–17L (55%) and Raiders 28W–20L (58%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Raiders get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Sea Eagles's -0.6.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1526 vs 1514), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.52).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +3.6
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