# Sea Eagles v Raiders — NRL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 40 – 12 Raiders

_Sea Eagles swoop on Raiders._

Half time: 30 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 68% / Raiders 32% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sun, 23 Mar, 06:15 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Reuben Garrick (23' 1st), Ethan Bullemor (27'), Ethan Bullemor (30'), Jake Simpkin (32'), Reuben Garrick (38' 1st), Reuben Garrick (49' 1st), Reuben Garrick (52' 1st) · Raiders: Sebastian Kris (63' Tipped ⚡), Hudson Young (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 68% | Won |
| Raiders | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.6 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sea Eagles 40–12 Raiders in NRL Round 3 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two ways to play a footy match were on show at Brookvale Oval, and only one of them survived contact. The Sea Eagles wanted the ball in hand and the completions ticking over. The Raiders wanted quick metres and shrugged off tackles. By full time it was Sea Eagles 40, Raiders 12, and the contrast explains most of it.

Manly ran at 87% completion and just 6 errors. Canberra managed 67% and 12 errors. That gap doesn't sound like much until you watch what it did to field position: Manly held the ball 64% of the time and kicked for 602 metres to Canberra's 345. When one side keeps the footy and the other keeps giving it back, the scoreboard tends to agree with the tidy one.

The timeline backs it up completely. Corey Horsburgh was sent to the bin in the 21st minute with the scores locked at nil all, and Manly made him pay in full. Reuben Garrick opened the account a minute later, and by the 37th minute it was 28-0, with Ethan Bullemor grabbing a double either side of Jake Simpkin's try. Manly had put the game away before Canberra had scored a point, and the Raiders spent the rest of the night playing catch-up against a side that never needed to lift out of second gear.

Garrick finished with four tries, the last two arriving after the break to push it to 38-0 by the 51st minute. Bullemor's brace and Simpkin's individual effort rounded out the seven-try haul. Canberra's reply came late: Sebastian Kris in the 63rd minute, Hudson Young in the 77th, both after the contest was long decided.

The form lines make more sense of this than the ladder position would suggest. Canberra came in with five wins from five and an average winning margin of 8 points, built on defence, conceding just 16.8 a game.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 30 | 10 | 40 |
| Raiders | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **64%** | Possession | 36% |
| **87%** | Completion rate | 67% |
| **1,723** | Run metres | 1,142 |
| **681** | Post-contact metres | 399 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **38** | Tackle breaks | 24 |
| 7 | Offloads | **13** |
| 83.2% | Effective tackle % | **88.8%** |
| **24** | Missed tackles | 38 |
| **6** | Errors | 12 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 10 |
| **602** | Kick metres | 345 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.6 but the actual margin was 28 points. The model went 3/16 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 5.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Sea Eagles bucked the trend, Raiders historically win 58% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 21' Sin Bin — Corey Horsburgh (Raiders) — 0-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 22' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Try — Ethan Bullemor (Sea Eagles) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 29' Try — Ethan Bullemor (Sea Eagles) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 32' Try — Jake Simpkin (Sea Eagles) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 37' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 28-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 48' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 34-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 51' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 38-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 63' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 40-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 77' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 40-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.52 (edge +9.9%) — model probability 68.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +25.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 4 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 68% to see off Raiders. Form leans Raiders' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Sea Eagles.

On paper Raiders shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Sea Eagles, which says Halves Control carry the most weight. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 3.6, with the two sides combining for about 41. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Sea Eagles to win, not to win big.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 9th against Raiders 2nd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 5 · Raiders 5 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 29-28 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 8-4 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 9th · Raiders 2nd |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Raiders 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 21W–20L | 51% |
| Raiders | 28W–20L | 58% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Raiders hold a 7-point edge: 28W–20L (58%) vs Sea Eagles's 21W–20L (51%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Sea Eagles get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Raiders's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 24.8pts |
| 30.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| -6.4pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 1531.8m | Run Metres | 1657.0m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 317.0 | Tackles | 381.4 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 2W–3L | 23.6 |
| Raiders | 5W–0L | 24.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Sea Eagles | 28 – 29 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R23 | Raiders | 28 – 12 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R23 | Raiders | 24 – 46 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R9 | Sea Eagles | 24 – 26 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R12 | Raiders | 14 – 42 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.85 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 14th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Cherry-Evans, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 13th there (1.23 conceded/game). Key man: Savage, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.29/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.85/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.58/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.08/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.31/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 8th) | 1.04/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 15 | 13 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 171m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 85.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 78 · 61 | 43 · 57 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 711m/g | 698m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 74.8% | 79.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 21 | 22 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 512m/g | 555m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 9.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.7% | 90.7% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30% · Centres 0.82/g (lg 0.7) +17% · 2nd Rows 0.52/g (lg 0.46) +13%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.4) +7% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.15) +7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 2 in 2g | 10/10g (3·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 1/7g | 18/28g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.58 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 11/25g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 33/49g | 38% | — | 🏉 23' 38' 49' 52' |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | FB | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/7g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 5/18g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 7/22g | 39/128g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/46g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 3/6g | 16/33g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 7/23g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 17/88g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 4% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/24g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 2/26g | 16% | — | 🏉 27' 30' |
| 17 | Josh Aloiai | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/27g | 2% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/9g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 1 in 2g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 2 in 1g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·2·1·1·2) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/21g | 1/8g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/2g | 32% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | 2R | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 79% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Trey Mooney | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1526 vs 1514), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.52). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1514 · Raiders 1526 · ELO difference: 12 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 983 (best 1190) | 988 (best 1296) | Raiders +5 |
| Backs | 935 (best 1159) | 1071 (best 1200) | Raiders +136 |
| Halves | 1179 (best 1179) | 1032 (best 1032) | Sea Eagles +146 |
| Hooker | 821 | 1200 | Raiders +379 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)