NRL | Round 3

alphr.com.au

PAR
Eels
VS
CBY
Bulldogs
COMMBANK STADIUM, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 23 MAR, 4:05 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 27 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 51. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend — Bulldogs have a 60% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Bulldogs by 7.3 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 24 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 46. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

60%BulldogsFavourite

Eels

40%

Bulldogs

60%

AI Match Overview

Bulldogs hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 40%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Bulldogs carry a 195-point ELO rating advantage (1543 vs 1348). The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.3 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @1.50

Winner ✓

Edge

-12.0%

Line / Spread

Bulldogs +6.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-12.0%

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+9.2%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Eels
WWLLL
30.4
Bulldogs
WWLLL
23.6

Avg Conceded

36.8

Eels

29.2

Bulldogs

Avg Margin

-6.4

Eels

-5.6

Bulldogs

Run Metres

1675

Eels

1665

Bulldogs

Line Breaks

5.4

Eels

4.4

Bulldogs

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Bulldogs
Wyatt Raymond40 games since 2024

Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

PAR
50%4W 4L
CBY
60%3W 2L

Bulldogs hold a 10‑point edge: 3W–2L (60%) vs Eels's 4W–4L (50%) across all games Wyatt Raymond has refereed for each side. His games average 50.9 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Eels an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 5 games for Bulldogs — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

50.9 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Eels lead 3-2
Jun 2025PAR 12 - 30 CBY
Jun 2024PAR 18 - 22 CBY
Mar 2024PAR 26 - 8 CBY
Jun 2023PAR 34 - 12 CBY
Apr 2023PAR 30 - 4 CBY
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

PAR
1348Overall1543
CBY
ELO difference: -195 in favour of Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1046Forwards1129
Best: 1218CBY +83Best: 1271
1025Backs978
Best: 1145PAR +47Best: 1131
952Halves989
Best: 952CBY +37Best: 989
739Hooker1177
CBY +438

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

PAR
Stat
CBY
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
30.4pts
Avg Score
23.6pts
36.8pts
Avg Conceded
29.2pts
-6.4pts
Avg Margin
-5.6pts
1674.8m
Run Metres
1665.2m
5.4
Line Breaks
4.4
295.8
Tackles
356.4
11.8
Errors
11.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulldogs
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulldogs
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Eels
4
Halves Control9.0%
Bulldogs
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Eels
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Eels

Model Confidence

60%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: -7.3

3/3 match predictions correct
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