Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Bulldogs by 7.3 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 24 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 46. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 26 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 57% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Eels
40%
Bulldogs
60%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 40%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Bulldogs carry a 195-point ELO rating advantage (1543 vs 1348). The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.3 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | W W L L L | 30.4 |
Bulldogs | W W L L L | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
36.8
Eels
29.2
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-6.4
Eels
-5.6
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1675
Eels
1665
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
5.4
Eels
4.4
Bulldogs
Referee Indicator
Favours BulldogsWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
Bulldogs hold a 13-point edge: 4W–3L (57%) vs Eels's 4W–5L (44%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Bulldogs).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Eels get a +1.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Bulldogs's -1.9.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -7.3
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