# Eels v Bulldogs — NRL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 8 – 16 Bulldogs

_Bulldogs hound Eels._

Half time: 4 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 40% / Bulldogs 60% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 23 Mar, 04:05 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Will Penisini (19' Tipped ⚡), Josh Addo-Carr (47' Tipped ⚡) · Bulldogs: Daniel Suluka-Fifita (5' 1st), Bronson Xerri (26' Tipped ⚡), Blake Wilson (33')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 60% | Won |
| Eels | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.3 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Eels 8–16 Bulldogs in NRL Round 3 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve errors to five. That's the number that beat the Eels, and it's why the Bulldogs left CommBank Stadium 16-8 winners, with the gap in ball control showing up early enough that Parramatta never got the game on their terms.

Daniel Suluka-Fifita got the Bulldogs going in the 4th minute, and the Eels hit back through Will Penisini in the 18th to make it 4-6. That was as close as it got. Bronson Xerri crossed in the 25th, Blake Wilson added another in the 33rd, and by half-time the Bulldogs led 14-4. Josh Addo-Carr pulled one back for the Eels in the 46th, but 8-14 became the final margin of 8, and the scoreboard didn't move again after that.

The completion numbers explain how the Bulldogs built that scoreboard pressure. They finished at 86% to the Eels' 77%, and turned the ball over just 5 times against Parramatta's 12. That's the difference between a side getting repeat sets in good territory and one that keeps handing the footy back. The Bulldogs backed that discipline with the boot too, banking 1,140 kick metres to the Eels' 886, controlling field position without needing to force things.

Parramatta actually won a few of the underlying battles. They had more of the footy, 49% to 51%, ran for more metres, 1,662 to 1,584, racked up more post-contact metres, 470 to 456, and doubled the Bulldogs on offloads, 10 to 5. Tackle breaks were even at 35 apiece. None of it mattered much when the ball keeps going backwards through errors instead of forwards through completed sets.

The penalty count actually ran the other way. The Eels conceded just 4 to the Bulldogs' 7, and Parramatta's defence was arguably the tidier outfit too, missing 35 tackles at an effective rate of 90.1% against the Bulldogs' 87.7%. But four line breaks to three gave the Bulldogs the edge in the moments that counted, and with the ball in their hands more often, that edge turned into tries.

The form line into this one had the Eels averaging 30.4 points a game across their last five, well clear of the Bulldogs' 23.6, but averages don't cover a hooker mismatch. The positional rating gap there, 739 to 1,177 in the Bulldogs' favour, told its own story going in, and it played out roughly as expected. Forwards went the Bulldogs' way too, 1,129 to 1,046, which lines up with a side that controlled territory and completions rather than one that simply ran harder.

Alphr's model had the Bulldogs at 60% and picked them by 7.3 points against an actual margin of 8, about as close as a pre-match read gets. It also called the total under 49.5, with the actual 24 points landing 22 shy of the projected 46.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Bulldogs | 14 | 2 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 77% | Completion rate | **86%** |
| **1,662** | Run metres | 1,584 |
| **470** | Post-contact metres | 456 |
| 3 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 35 | Tackle breaks | 35 |
| **10** | Offloads | 5 |
| **90.1%** | Effective tackle % | 87.7% |
| 35 | Missed tackles | 35 |
| 12 | Errors | **5** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 886 | Kick metres | **1,140** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Bulldogs by 7.3 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 24 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 6/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 6.5-point line. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 26 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 63% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Bulldogs prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Daniel Suluka-Fifita (Bulldogs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 18' Try — Will Penisini (Eels) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 25' Try — Bronson Xerri (Bulldogs) — 4-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 33' Try — Blake Wilson (Bulldogs) — 4-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 46' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 8-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.50 (edge -12.0%) — model probability 60.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 7 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 60%, but Eels stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 195 ELO points clear, 1543 to 1348.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Bulldogs by 7.3, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Bulldogs have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Eels 17th against Bulldogs 3rd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 5 · Bulldogs 5 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 14-12 |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 17th · Bulldogs 3rd |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Bulldogs 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 4W–6L | 40% |
| Bulldogs | 5W–3L | 63% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Bulldogs have won 5 of 8 games (63%), significantly stronger than Eels's 4 from 10 (40%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Eels get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Bulldogs's -2.0.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 30.4pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 36.8pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| -6.4pts | Avg Margin | -5.6pts |
| 1674.8m | Run Metres | 1665.2m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 295.8 | Tackles | 356.4 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 2W–3L | 30.4 |
| Bulldogs | 2W–3L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Bulldogs | 14 – 12 | Eels |
| 2026 | R7 | Eels | 38 – 20 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R14 | Bulldogs | 30 – 12 | Eels |
| 2024 | R14 | Bulldogs | 22 – 18 | Eels |
| 2024 | R1 | Eels | 26 – 8 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 6th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Penisini, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.36 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 17th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Crichton, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.88/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.75/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.36/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.83/g (def 8th) | 1.28/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 0.84/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.12/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 18 | 14 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 234m/g | 193m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.3% | 85.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 64 · 92 | 59 · 45 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 619m/g | 779m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.7/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.5% | 75.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 15 | 15 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 523m/g | 449m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 88.6% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10% · 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.46) +7% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5%
**Who scores on Eels** — Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.15) +40% · Wingers 1.57/g (lg 1.26) +25% · Centres 0.81/g (lg 0.7) +16%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 1 in 2g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 5/6g | 11/35g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' |
| 4 | Zac Lomax | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 3/10g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Jordan Samrani | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 14/55g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Dean Hawkins | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/30g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/20g | 9/71g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Shaun Lane | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 7/57g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/17g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Ryley Smith | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Matt Doorey | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/7g | 0/5g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Blake Wilson | WG | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/2g | 1/1g | 29% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 3/6g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 5/7g | 5/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.44 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Bailey Hayward | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 11/43g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.75 AI 55% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Josh Curran | PR | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/6g | 2/8g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | 2R | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 1/9g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/16g | 3/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 17 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1348 · Bulldogs 1543 · ELO difference: 195 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1046 (best 1218) | 1129 (best 1271) | Bulldogs +83 |
| Backs | 1025 (best 1145) | 978 (best 1131) | Eels +47 |
| Halves | 952 (best 952) | 989 (best 989) | Bulldogs +37 |
| Hooker | 739 | 1177 | Bulldogs +438 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Eels |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)