Win Probability
AI Game Review
Wests Tigers defied the model's 60% prediction for Dolphins, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.7 but the actual margin was 12 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 48, within 5 points. Wests Tigers trailed 18–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–30. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Wests Tigers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Wests Tigers have a 36% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
60%
Wests Tigers
40%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Wests Tigers are far from out of this at 40%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Dolphins carry a 28-point ELO rating advantage (1404 vs 1376). Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 3.7 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @2.00
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.1%
Line / Spread
Dolphins +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.1%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+11.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | W L L L L | 15.6 |
Wests Tigers | W W W L L | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
22.0
Dolphins
23.6
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
-6.4
Dolphins
0.0
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1688
Dolphins
1648
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
4.0
Dolphins
4.6
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours Wests TigersPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
Wests Tigers hold a 14-point edge: 9W–16L (36%) vs Dolphins's 2W–7L (22%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Wests Tigers get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Dolphins's +0.3.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1404 vs 1376), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@2.00).
The model sides with ELO, Dolphins predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Dolphins predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +3.7
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