# Dolphins v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 18 – 30 Wests Tigers

_Wests Tigers rally to maul Dolphins._

Half time: 18 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 60% / Wests Tigers 40% · Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe · Sat, 22 Mar, 05:30 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Jack Bostock (4' 1st), Herbie Farnworth (18' Tipped ⚡), Kodi Nikorima (23') · Wests Tigers: Sunia Turuva (8' Tipped ⚡), Tallyn Da Silva (36'), Sunia Turuva (63' Tipped ⚡), Alex Seyfarth (69'), Apisai Koroisau (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 60% | Lost |
| Wests Tigers | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.7 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dolphins 18–30 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 3 at Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers won 30-18 at Kayo Stadium, and on paper that looks like a tidy away win. It wasn't tidy. It was 18-12 to the Dolphins at half-time, and Wests Tigers had to find 18 unanswered points from there to turn it around. A twelve point swing after the break, from a team the Dolphins had actually led for most of the first half.

The Dolphins started like the form line said they shouldn't. Jack Bostock opened the scoring in the 4th minute, and after Sunia Turuva hit back for Wests Tigers, Herbie Farnworth and Kodi Nikorima put the Dolphins out to 16-6 by the 22nd minute. That's three tries in the opening quarter of the game from the side rated the weaker outfit in three of four positional groups. Tallyn Da Silva got one back before the break to make it 18-10, but the Dolphins still went to the sheds up six.

Then the second half happened. Turuva scored his second in the 63rd minute, Alex Seyfarth crossed in the 68th, Apisai Koroisau finished it off in the 75th, and eighteen minutes of footy turned an eight-point deficit into a twelve-point win. No further points from the Dolphins after half-time. That's the whole story of the result, really: a team that couldn't finish the job it started.

The stat sheet backs up the fade. Wests Tigers ran for 1,813 metres to the Dolphins' 1,504, and 641 of that came after contact against 528, meaning the Tigers were still gaining hard yards deep into tackles while the Dolphins were getting stood up. Twelve offloads to seven and 32 tackle breaks to 24 tell you the same thing from a different angle: Wests Tigers kept the footy alive when it mattered, and the Dolphins kept getting whacked and dropping it.

Discipline with the ball was the other gap. Seven errors to twelve, an 85% completion rate against 77%, and 55% of the possession. When you're cleaner and you've got the ball more often, six line breaks to three stops looking like a stat and starts looking like an inevitability.

Defensively the Dolphins missed 32 tackles to the Tigers' 24, and while the effective tackle percentages were close enough, 89.2% to 90.7%, that missed tackle count is where three of those second-half tries came from. A forward pack rated 1109 to 1030 didn't do much for them once the back three of Turuva, Da Silva, Seyfarth and Koroisau got room to move, backed by a Tigers backline rated 1146 to 1000 and halves rated 1183 to 1080.

Alphr's model had the Dolphins as 3.7-point favourites pre-match, with a 60% win probability and a combined total of 43. The total wasn't far off, 48 points played out. The favourite and the margin both missed badly, with the actual gap 12 points the other way. Form lines had Wests Tigers on three wins from five against the Dolphins' one, and an average margin of even money against minus 6.4. On this evidence, recent form told more truth than the rating did.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 18 | 0 | 18 |
| Wests Tigers | 12 | 18 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 77% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,504 | Run metres | **1,813** |
| 528 | Post-contact metres | **641** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **32** |
| 7 | Offloads | **12** |
| 89.2% | Effective tackle % | **90.7%** |
| 32 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| 12 | Errors | **7** |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 524 | Kick metres | **534** |

**Model Report Card**

Wests Tigers defied the model's 60% prediction for Dolphins, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.7 but the actual margin was 12 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 48, within 5 points. Wests Tigers trailed 18–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–30. The model went 2/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Wests Tigers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Wests Tigers have a 36% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 8' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 17' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 22' Try — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 35' Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Wests Tigers) — 18-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 63' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 68' Try — Alex Seyfarth (Wests Tigers) — 18-22 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 75' Try — Apisai Koroisau (Wests Tigers) — 18-28 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $2.00 (edge +3.1%) — model probability 59.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 60%, but Wests Tigers stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 28 ELO points clear, 1404 to 1376. Form leans Wests Tigers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Dolphins.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Dolphins by 3.7, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 3 of the last 5 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 36-22 in 2026 Round 16.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 15th against Wests Tigers 7th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 5) | Dolphins 3 · Wests Tigers 2 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 36-22 |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins at home | 7-5 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 15th · Wests Tigers 7th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 0% · Wests Tigers 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Wests Tigers

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 2W–7L | 22% |
| Wests Tigers | 10W–18L | 36% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Wests Tigers hold a 14-point edge: 10W–18L (36%) vs Dolphins's 2W–7L (22%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Wests Tigers get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Dolphins's +0.0.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 15.6pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Conceded | 23.6pts |
| -6.4pts | Avg Margin | 0.0pts |
| 1687.8m | Run Metres | 1648.2m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 364.8 | Tackles | 315.2 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 1W–4L | 15.6 |
| Wests Tigers | 3W–2L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Dolphins lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Wests Tigers | 22 – 36 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R11 | Wests Tigers | 12 – 24 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R5 | Dolphins | 26 – 16 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R25 | Wests Tigers | 24 – 23 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.88 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 16th there (2.42 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the middle: NRL's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.71 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 9th there (1.88 conceded/game). Key man: Bula, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.17/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.92/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.88/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 9th) | 1.71/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.42/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.08/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 9th) | 0.71/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 15 | 12 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 188m/g | 240m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 84.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 66 · 53 | 44 · 77 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 738m/g | 585m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.6/g | 11.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.6% | 71.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 23 | 17 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 470m/g | 486m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.7% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.16) +56% · Fullbacks 0.54/g (lg 0.4) +35% · 2nd Rows 0.62/g (lg 0.46) +35%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.87/g (lg 0.7) +24%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Kayo Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 6/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.61 AI 70% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/8g | 3/6g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 4/5g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 3/7g | 16% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Daniel Saifiti | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 2/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Oryn Keeley | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Max Plath | 2R | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Tom Gilbert | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 2/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 3 in 2g | 8/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·3) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 8' 63' |
| 3 | Adam Doueihi | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Galvin | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jarome Luai | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 24% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 15 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Bird | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Sione Fainu | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1404 vs 1376), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@2.00). The model sides with ELO, Dolphins predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1404 · Wests Tigers 1376 · ELO difference: 28 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1109 (best 1248) | 1030 (best 1277) | Dolphins +79 |
| Backs | 1000 (best 1111) | 1146 (best 1197) | Wests Tigers +145 |
| Halves | 1080 (best 1080) | 1183 (best 1183) | Wests Tigers +103 |
| Hooker | 962 | 861 | Dolphins +101 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)