# Broncos v Cowboys — NRL Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 26 – 16 Cowboys

_Broncos buck off Cowboys._

Half time: 12 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 69% / Cowboys 31% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 21 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Jack Gosiewski (23' 1st), Adam Reynolds (35'), Jesse Arthars (59' Tipped ⚡), Payne Haas (72') · Cowboys: Griffin Neame (41'), Murray Taulagi (54' Tipped ⚡), Jaxon Purdue (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 69% | Won |
| Cowboys | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.4 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Broncos 26–16 Cowboys in NRL Round 3 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at Suncorp read 12-0, Broncos in complete control, but a two-point win margin in the shadow of full-time tells you the Cowboys did not simply roll over. Broncos closed it out 26-16, and the manner of the finish, a scrappy final quarter with tries flying in both directions, said more about the contest than that clean opening 40.

Jack Gosiewski got the Broncos moving in the 22nd minute, Adam Reynolds followed it up before the break, and the home side had banked a 12-0 buffer by half-time. That's the kind of start built on their halves and hooker edge, Reynolds and company rated at 1100 in the halves against the Cowboys' 1014, and Broncos hooker at 1144 against 861. On paper that gap was always going to show up somewhere, and it showed up in the first 40.

The Cowboys didn't fold. Griffin Neame got them on the board, then Murray Taulagi crossed in the 53rd minute to drag it back to 12-10, suddenly a one-score game deep in the second half. For a stretch there, Broncos looked like they might cop exactly the kind of collapse their recent form suggested was possible, conceding an average of 32 points across their last five outings.

Instead they answered. Jesse Arthars scored in the 59th to push it to 16-12, and Payne Haas barrelled over in the 71st to make it 24-12, effectively shutting the door before Jaxon Purdue's late four-pointer in the 76th made the final margin look tighter than the game actually was.

The stat sheet backs up why Broncos never really lost their grip despite the scare. They ran in 7 line breaks to 2, busted 38 tackles to the Cowboys' 29, and offloaded the ball 9 times against just 2. That's a side finding go-forward at will, and it lines up with the Broncos' backs rating of 1023 against 916, a gap that turned into real metres after contact, 556 to 505.

Discipline mattered too. Broncos completed at 84% and coughed up just 10 errors, the Cowboys spilling it 15 times and missing 38 tackles in defence. Their forward pack was rated marginally ahead pre-match, 1070 to 1050, but form coming in had them conceding more cleanly, only 10.4 errors a game on average, so 15 on the night was a rare off-night with the ball for a side that doesn't usually give it away that cheaply.

Alphr's model backed Broncos at 69% and picked them by 14.4 against an actual 10-point win, close enough to call it a fair read. The total sat at 44 predicted against 42 actual, and the under on 53.5 landed too.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 12 | 14 | 26 |
| Cowboys | 0 | 16 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **1,641** | Run metres | 1,632 |
| **556** | Post-contact metres | 505 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **38** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **9** | Offloads | 2 |
| **90.9%** | Effective tackle % | 87.2% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 38 |
| **10** | Errors | 15 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| **789** | Kick metres | 652 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 69% probability. The predicted margin of 14.4 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Broncos covered the 13.5-point line. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 42 points was 5 points below Todd Smith's career average of 47. Broncos's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Broncos have a 59% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 22' Try — Jack Gosiewski (Broncos) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 34' Try — Adam Reynolds (Broncos) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 40' Try — Griffin Neame (Cowboys) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 53' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 59' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 71' Try — Payne Haas (Broncos) — 24-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 76' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 26-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.22 (edge -19.1%) — model probability 69.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge -19.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +25.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 14 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Broncos here: 69% to see off Cowboys.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Broncos by 14.4, with the two sides combining for about 44. Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 18-10 in 2026 Round 21.

Broncos have won 7 straight; Broncos are 10-3 at home this year. Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Broncos 5, Cowboys 3.

On the ladder it's Broncos 6th against Cowboys 16th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 6 · Cowboys 4 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 18-10 |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos at home | 10-3 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 6th · Cowboys 16th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 100% · Cowboys 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 10W–7L | 59% |
| Cowboys | 7W–8L | 47% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Broncos hold a 12-point edge: 10W–7L (59%) vs Cowboys's 7W–8L (47%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 32.0pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| -8.0pts | Avg Margin | -2.4pts |
| 1553.8m | Run Metres | 1770.2m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 330.0 | Tackles | 347.6 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 2W–3L | 24.0 |
| Cowboys | 2W–3L | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Cowboys | 18 – 10 | Broncos |
| 2026 | R6 | Broncos | 31 – 35 | Cowboys |
| 2025 | R26 | Cowboys | 30 – 38 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R23 | Cowboys | 18 – 42 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R4 | Broncos | 38 – 12 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 13th there (1.92 conceded/game). Key man: Walsh, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.04 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 15th there (1.63 conceded/game). Key man: Nanai, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.08/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.04/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.65/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 9th) | 1.35/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 15th (weak)) | 2.04/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 18 | 16 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 183m/g | 209m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.2% | 86.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 53 · 64 | 74 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 639m/g | 761m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.1/g | 15.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.2% | 74.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 16 | 26 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 549m/g | 482m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.4/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 89.7% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.16) +56% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.15) +20% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.15) +13% · Centres 0.79/g (lg 0.7) +13% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.4) +5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·2·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 13/24g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.34 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 4 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·1) | 2/5g | 26/40g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.30 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Deine Mariner | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/19g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 4 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·3) | 4/9g | 11/37g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.27 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| 6 | Ben Hunt | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/29g | 25/102g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/21g | 5/46g | 14% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/53g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/29g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 7/67g | 8% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 11 | Jack Gosiewski | 2R | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/8g | 18% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 13/55g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/43g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 6/39g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Jensen | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/37g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Xavier Willison | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/17g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Brendan Piakura | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/15g | 13% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/10g | 5/10g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 4 | Viliami Vailea | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 0 in 2g | 8/10g (1·3·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 4/11g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| 6 | Tom Dearden | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 7/20g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jake Clifford | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/21g | 1/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/27g | 0/20g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai O'Donnell | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/9g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.50 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Sam McIntyre | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jeremiah Nanai | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/5g | 7/6g | 34% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/7g | 4% | — | 🏉 41' |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/11g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Cowboys hold the ELO advantage (1474 vs 1471), but the market favours Broncos (@1.22). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1471 · Cowboys 1474 · ELO difference: 3 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1050 (best 1313) | 1070 (best 1172) | Cowboys +20 |
| Backs | 1023 (best 1147) | 916 (best 1011) | Broncos +107 |
| Halves | 1100 (best 1100) | 1014 (best 1014) | Broncos +86 |
| Hooker | 1144 | 861 | Broncos +283 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Cowboys |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Broncos |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Broncos predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)