Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 69% probability. The predicted margin of 14.4 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 42 points was 4 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Broncos's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Broncos have a 60% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
69%
Cowboys
31%
AI Match Overview
Broncos are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. The model sees Broncos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The margin model predicts Broncos by 14.4 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
-19.1%
Line / Spread
Broncos -13.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-19.1%
Total Points
Under 53.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+25.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | W W L L L | 24.0 |
Cowboys | W W L L L | 22.8 |
Avg Conceded
32.0
Broncos
25.2
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-8.0
Broncos
-2.4
Cowboys
Run Metres
1554
Broncos
1770
Cowboys
Line Breaks
4.8
Broncos
4.8
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Broncos hold a 10-point edge: 9W–6L (60%) vs Cowboys's 7W–7L (50%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
ELO–Market Disagreement
Cowboys hold the ELO advantage (1474 vs 1471), but the market favours Broncos (@1.22).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Broncos predicted to win by 14 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +14.4
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