Win Probability
AI Game Review
Titans defied the model's 52% prediction for Wests Tigers, a notable result. The predicted margin of 1.1 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The game's 64 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 44. Titans trailed 12–28 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 36–28. The model went 1/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Chris Butler officiated this match (156 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 20 points above Chris Butler's career average of 44. Titans bucked the trend, Wests Tigers historically win 30% of games under Chris Butler, but couldn't convert that edge today. Titans's home victory fits Chris Butler's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Chris Butler averaged 12.8 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Titans
48%
Wests Tigers
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Wests Tigers a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Titans are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Wests Tigers counter with ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Wests Tigers carry a 138-point ELO rating advantage (1368 vs 1230). Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Titans. The margin model predicts Titans by 1.1 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.85
Lost ✗
Edge
-0.5%
Line / Spread
Titans +2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.5%
Total Points
Under 53.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+25.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | L L L L L | 22.8 |
Wests Tigers | W W L L L | 18.8 |
Avg Conceded
34.4
Titans
24.0
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
-11.6
Titans
-5.2
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1667
Titans
1538
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
4.6
Titans
3.6
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours Wests TigersChris Butler
156 career games · since 2014
Win rate when Chris Butler refs each team (vs any opponent)
Wests Tigers hold a 9-point edge: 7W–16L (30%) vs Titans's 7W–26L (21%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
12.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.42
SB Away %
38%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Chris Butler averages 12.8 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 6.7 against away. Titans get a +-0.5 penalty advantage under Chris Butler vs Wests Tigers's -1.1. 62% of his 60 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +1.1
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