AI Referee Insights
Chris Butler officiated this match (155 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 20 points above Chris Butler's career average of 44. Titans bucked the trend — Wests Tigers historically win 32% of games under Chris Butler, but couldn't convert that edge today. Titans's home victory fits Chris Butler's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Titans defied the model's 52% prediction for Wests Tigers — a notable result. The predicted margin of 1.1 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The game's 64 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 44. Titans trailed 12–28 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 36–28. The model went 1/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Titans
48%
Wests Tigers
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Wests Tigers a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Titans are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control — but Wests Tigers counter with ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Wests Tigers carry a 138-point ELO rating advantage (1368 vs 1230). Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Titans. The margin model predicts Titans by 1.1 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.85
Lost ✗
Edge
-0.5%
Line / Spread
Titans +2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.5%
Total Points
Under 53.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+25.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | LLLLL | 22.8 |
Wests Tigers | WWLLL | 18.8 |
Avg Conceded
34.4
Titans
24.0
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
-11.6
Titans
-5.2
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1667
Titans
1538
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
4.6
Titans
3.6
Wests Tigers
Each team's win rate when Chris Butler refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Wests Tigers hold a 13‑point edge: 7W–15L (32%) vs Titans's 6W–26L (19%) across all games Chris Butler has refereed for each side. His games average 43.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Titans an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +1.1
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