# Titans v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 36 – 28 Wests Tigers

_Titans rally to flex on Wests Tigers from 16 down._

Half time: 12 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 48% / Wests Tigers 52% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sat, 06 Sept, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: AJ Brimson (21'), Brian Kelly (24' Tipped ⚡), Jayden Campbell (45' Tipped ⚡), Brian Kelly (64' Tipped ⚡), Beau Fermor (66' Tipped ⚡), AJ Brimson (72') · Wests Tigers: Jahream Bula (8' 1st Tipped 🎯), Heamasi Makasini (13' Tipped ⚡), Royce Hunt (29'), Royce Hunt (32'), Latu Fainu (38')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 52% | Lost |
| Titans | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.1 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Titans 36–28 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 27 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Titans by 1.1 and a total of 44 points. What actually turned up was a 36-28 result and 64 points on the board, twenty more than tipped. The margin call wasn't bad. The path to it was nothing like the script.

Wests Tigers led 28-12 at the break and looked like the team the ratings favoured, at least early. Jahream Bula opened the scoring in the 7th minute, Heamasi Makasini made it 10-0 by the 13th, and even when Titans hit back through AJ Brimson and Brian Kelly to level at 10-10, Wests Tigers answered with three tries in ten minutes, Royce Hunt twice and Latu Fainu, to go up 26-12. Jayden Campbell got one back before the break but Titans still trailed by 12 at half-time. On the pre-match halves rating, Titans held a big edge, 1207 to 1048. For forty minutes it counted for nothing.

Then the second half flipped it entirely. Brian Kelly scored his second in the 64th minute, Beau Fermor levelled it at 28-28 two minutes later, and AJ Brimson's second try in the 72nd put Titans in front for good. Eighteen unanswered points, and Wests Tigers had no reply.

The stat sheet explains some of it, though not all. Wests Tigers were the tidier side by a distance, completing at 83% to 68% and giving up just 9 errors to Titans' 14. That's normally a formula for control. But Titans made their footy count where it mattered: 9 line breaks to 3, and 40 tackle breaks to 36, off 1,679 run metres to 1,484. Wests Tigers held more of the ball, 51% to 49%, and offloaded more too, 16 to 10, but all that shape didn't convert into enough tries once Titans found their line breaks in the second half.

Defensively, Titans missed more tackles, 36 to 40, but landed a slightly better effective tackle rate, 85.1% to 83.9%, which matters more than the raw miss count once you're conceding line breaks at the rate Wests Tigers were.

For the losing side, the discipline stayed tidy, 3 penalties conceded to 4, and the completion rate was genuinely good footy. It just wasn't enough once Titans started finding gaps they hadn't found all match. Royce Hunt's double and Fainu's try built the lead, but four tries to none across the closing stages undid it.

Titans' form line coming in was rough, no wins in the last five, conceding an average of 34.4 points a game. Against a Wests Tigers side that had actually won two of their last five, the model's lean towards Titans looked shaky on paper. On the day, the halves advantage and the sharper strike edge showed up exactly when it was needed.

Alphr's model finished 7 from 16 on this one and had Titans covering the 2.5-point line. The overall lean was right. Picking a comeback from 16 down was always going to be the hard part.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 12 | 24 | 36 |
| Wests Tigers | 28 | 0 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 68% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| **1,679** | Run metres | 1,484 |
| 486 | Post-contact metres | **499** |
| **9** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **40** | Tackle breaks | 36 |
| 10 | Offloads | **16** |
| **85.1%** | Effective tackle % | 83.9% |
| **36** | Missed tackles | 40 |
| 14 | Errors | **9** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 459 | Kick metres | **517** |

**Model Report Card**

Titans defied the model's 52% prediction for Wests Tigers, a notable result. The predicted margin of 1.1 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The game's 64 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 44. Titans trailed 12–28 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 36–28. The model went 7/16 on this match. Titans covered the 2.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Chris Butler officiated this match (156 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 20 points above Chris Butler's career average of 44. Titans bucked the trend, Wests Tigers historically win 30% of games under Chris Butler, but couldn't convert that edge today. Titans's home victory fits Chris Butler's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Chris Butler averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 13' Try — Heamasi Makasini (Wests Tigers) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 21' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 23' Try — Brian Kelly (Titans) — 10-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 28' Try — Royce Hunt (Wests Tigers) — 12-14 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 32' Try — Royce Hunt (Wests Tigers) — 12-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 37' Try — Latu Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 12-26 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 44' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 16-28 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 64' Try — Brian Kelly (Titans) — 22-28 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 66' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 28-28 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 72' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 34-28 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.85 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 52.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +25.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Titans by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Titans and Wests Tigers. The model can't split them, landing on Wests Tigers at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wests Tigers sit 138 ELO points clear, 1368 to 1230. Form leans Wests Tigers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Titans.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Titans by 1.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Titans have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Wests Tigers took the most recent meeting 36-28 in 2026 Round 15.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Titans 17th against Wests Tigers 11th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 6 · Wests Tigers 4 |
| Last meeting | Wests Tigers 36-28 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 17th · Wests Tigers 11th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Wests Tigers 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Wests Tigers

**Chris Butler** — 156 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Chris Butler | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 7W–26L | 21% |
| Wests Tigers | 7W–16L | 30% |

Avg total: 43.7 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Wests Tigers hold a 9-point edge: 7W–16L (30%) vs Titans's 7W–26L (21%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Chris Butler averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.7 against away. Titans get a +-0.5 penalty advantage under Chris Butler vs Wests Tigers's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 18.8pts |
| 34.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| -11.6pts | Avg Margin | -5.2pts |
| 1667.0m | Run Metres | 1538.4m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 3.6 |
| 354.0 | Tackles | 340.6 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 0W–5L | 22.8 |
| Wests Tigers | 2W–3L | 18.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wests Tigers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Wests Tigers | 36 – 28 | Titans |
| 2025 | R20 | Wests Tigers | 21 – 20 | Titans |
| 2024 | R15 | Wests Tigers | 18 – 10 | Titans |
| 2023 | R15 | Titans | 28 – 12 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R1 | Wests Tigers | 10 – 22 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 10th there (1.09 conceded/game). Key man: Fermor, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 11th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.65 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.17/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.52/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.13/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.22/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.87/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.09/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.04/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.3/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.65/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.09/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 16 | 10 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 188m/g | 228m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 4.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 83.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 52 · 73 | 53 · 54 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 677m/g | 672m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.6/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77% | 78.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 18 | 9 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 552m/g | 513m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.4/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.61/g (lg 0.42) +45% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.17) +35% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%
**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.31/g (lg 0.17) +82% · Fullbacks 0.69/g (lg 0.42) +64% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.44) +43%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/15g | 15% | — | — |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/10g | 20/67g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' 64' |
| 3 | AJ Brimson | CE | 10 in 22g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/6g | 26/63g | 34% | — | 🏉 21' 72' |
| 4 | Carter Gordon | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Kieran Foran | 5/8 | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/21g | 9/35g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 16/35g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/72g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/26g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | INT | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 0/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/32g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 9 in 23g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 13/43g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 7/36g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Cooper Bai | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Klese Haas | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/30g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/19g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Patston | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 11 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 3 | Taylan May | CE | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 9 in 18g | 4/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Heamasi Makasini | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Latu Fainu | HB | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 3 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Sione Fainu | 2R | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Heath Mason | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 15 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 4% | — | 🏉 29' 32' |
| 16 | Alex Seyfarth | PR | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Tony Sukkar | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1230 · Wests Tigers 1368 · ELO difference: 138 in favour of Wests Tigers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1060 (best 1279) | 1019 (best 1258) | Titans +41 |
| Backs | 987 (best 1112) | 978 (best 1021) | Titans +9 |
| Halves | 1207 (best 1207) | 1048 (best 1048) | Titans +159 |
| Hooker | 994 | 1127 | Wests Tigers +133 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Titans |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Titans |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Titans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)