# Sea Eagles v Warriors — NRL Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 27 – 26 Warriors

_Sea Eagles edge Warriors in a one-point thriller._

Half time: 14 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 65% / Warriors 35% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Fri, 05 Sept, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Lehi Hopoate (4'), Jake Simpkin (9'), Lehi Hopoate (16'), Luke Brooks (42'), Ethan Bullemor (48') · Warriors: James Fisher-Harris (1' 1st), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (34' Tipped ⚡), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (54'), Sam Healey (73'), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (80' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 65% | Won |
| Warriors | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.2 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sea Eagles 27–26 Warriors in NRL Round 27 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ethan Bullemor's try in the 48th minute put Sea Eagles up 24-10, and at that point Brookvale Oval had the look of a procession. It wasn't. The Warriors scored three of the game's last four tries, Sea Eagles finished the match with two men in the sin bin, and the final margin came down to a single point. Sea Eagles 27, Warriors 26.

The turn started in the 53rd minute, when Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad crossed to make it 26-14. Sam Healey followed in the 72nd to bring it to 26-18. Daly Cherry-Evans steadied things with a field goal in the 75th to push the lead to nine, but then it unravelled fast. Tom Trbojevic was sin binned in the 78th, Jazz Tevaga a minute later, and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak scored his second of the night in the 79th to leave Sea Eagles hanging on at 27-24 with two players short and no time left to defend it.

Go back to the start of the game and the shape makes more sense. Fisher-Harris scored inside the opening minute for the Warriors, but Sea Eagles answered with two tries to Lehi Hopoate either side of a Jake Simpkin four-pointer to lead 14-6, then 14-10 at the break. Luke Brooks extended it after halftime before Bullemor's try made it look done. It wasn't.

The stat sheet tells you why it stayed close all night. Warriors were the better side with ball in hand: 75% completion against Sea Eagles' 70%, 14 errors to 16, and 1,685 running metres to 1,578. They broke the line seven times to Sea Eagles' four, racked up 41 tackle breaks to 35, and offloaded nine more times than their hosts, 14 to 9. Sea Eagles' defence, by contrast, missed 41 tackles at an effective rate of 83.5%, well below the Warriors' 86.5%.

That gap lines up with the form book. Warriors came in averaging more line breaks over their last five (5.4 to Sea Eagles' actual haul tonight was only 4) and had shown better ball security, at 9 errors a game against Sea Eagles' 12.8. The Warriors' halves rating of 1295 also outstripped Sea Eagles' 1169 coming in, and it showed in the sharpness going forward. Where Sea Eagles won it was hooker, 1085 to 736, and forwards by the narrowest of edges, 1144 to 1139, and in the end that was enough to bank the four tries that mattered most, including two from Hopoate.

Alphr's model had Sea Eagles at 65% to win, with a predicted margin of 6.2 points and a combined total of 45. The actual total landed at 53, well over, but the margin was close enough, a one-point win against a 6.2-point tip, and Sea Eagles covered the 4.5-point line. Call that one a correct read that undersold just how nervy the finish would be. On the ledger for this match, the model went 3 from 16, a reminder that picking a winner and picking the shape of the game are two different jobs entirely.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Warriors | 10 | 16 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 70% | Completion rate | **75%** |
| 1,578 | Run metres | **1,685** |
| 554 | Post-contact metres | **560** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 35 | Tackle breaks | **41** |
| 9 | Offloads | **14** |
| 83.5% | Effective tackle % | **86.5%** |
| 41 | Missed tackles | **35** |
| 16 | Errors | **14** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **478** | Kick metres | 469 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 65% probability. The predicted margin of 6.2 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The model went 3/16 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 53 points was 6 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 54% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 0' Try — James Fisher-Harris (Warriors) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 4' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 9' Try — Jake Simpkin (Sea Eagles) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +8 pts
- 15' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 34' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 14-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 41' Try — Luke Brooks (Sea Eagles) — 18-10 · win-prob swing +16 pts
- 48' Try — Ethan Bullemor (Sea Eagles) — 24-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 53' Try — Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) — 26-14 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 72' Try — Sam Healey (Warriors) — 26-18 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 75' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Daly Cherry-Evans (Sea Eagles) — 27-20 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 78' Sin Bin — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 27-20 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 79' Sin Bin — Jazz Tevaga (Sea Eagles) — 27-20 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 79' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 27-24 · win-prob swing -7 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.50 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 65.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 6 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 65% to see off Warriors.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 2 of 7 factors including Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 6.2, with the two sides combining for about 45. Sea Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sea Eagles have won 5 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 31-30 in 2026 Round 27.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Warriors have lost 3 straight. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 10th against Warriors 6th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 5 · Warriors 4 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 31-30 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 8-4 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors away | 7-5 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 10th · Warriors 6th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Warriors 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 7W–6L | 54% |
| Warriors | 6W–7L | 46% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Sea Eagles hold a 8-point edge: 7W–6L (54%) vs Warriors's 6W–7L (46%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Sea Eagles get a +1.2 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Warriors's +0.9.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 25.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -0.4pts | Avg Margin | -1.2pts |
| 1681.2m | Run Metres | 1707.4m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 3.0 |
| 325.6 | Tackles | 339.4 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 2W–3L | 25.2 |
| Warriors | 2W–3L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Warriors | 31 – 30 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R2 | Warriors | 36 – 16 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R24 | Sea Eagles | 24 – 10 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R6 | Warriors | 22 – 22 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R25 | Warriors | 29 – 22 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.39 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 14th there (1.48 conceded/game). Key man: Hopoate, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.48 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 10th there (1.74 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.39/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.22/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.09/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.74/g (def 10th) | 1.48/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.35/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.96/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 17 | 18 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 192m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.7% | 87% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 58 · 48 | 41 · 56 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 724m/g | 683m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.9/g | 13.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.9% | 81.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 14 | 13 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 494m/g | 531m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 89.4% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.69) +0% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.43) -2% · Wingers 1.2/g (lg 1.25) -4%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Wingers 1.37/g (lg 1.25) +10% · Fullbacks 0.45/g (lg 0.43) +5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 6 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 11/11g | 40/59g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 10 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/6g | 22/37g | 50% | — | — |
| 3 | Clayton Faulalo | CE | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/10g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Tommy Talau | CE | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 8/16g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 8/17g | 27% | — | 🏉 4' 16' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 3 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/16g | 7/28g | 14% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 5 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/22g | 40/138g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/16g | 4% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/14g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 4 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/8g | 3/33g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 10/33g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Joey Walsh | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Caleb Navale | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 4 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 5/36g | 12% | — | 🏉 48' |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 1/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 11/16g | 3/7g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' 80' |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 11 in 23g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·2·1·1) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Rocco Berry | CE | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 12 in 17g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 4/18g | 0/6g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 8 in 22g | 5/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 2/4g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 1' |
| 9 | Sam Healey | HK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 10 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 4 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | INT | 12 in 23g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1468 vs 1460), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.50). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1460 · Warriors 1468 · ELO difference: 8 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1144 (best 1279) | 1139 (best 1287) | Sea Eagles +5 |
| Backs | 1085 (best 1188) | 1054 (best 1223) | Sea Eagles +31 |
| Halves | 1169 (best 1169) | 1295 (best 1295) | Warriors +126 |
| Hooker | 1085 | 736 | Sea Eagles +349 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)