Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 65% probability. The predicted margin of 6.2 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 53 points was 7 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 58% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
65%
Warriors
35%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warriors. Warriors are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control, but Sea Eagles counter with Backline Quality and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 6.2 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.3%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.3%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+9.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | W W L L L | 25.2 |
Warriors | W W L L L | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
25.6
Sea Eagles
21.2
Warriors
Avg Margin
-0.4
Sea Eagles
-1.2
Warriors
Run Metres
1681
Sea Eagles
1707
Warriors
Line Breaks
5.4
Sea Eagles
3.0
Warriors
Referee Indicator
Favours Sea EaglesTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Sea Eagles have won 7 of 12 games (58%), significantly stronger than Warriors's 5 from 12 (42%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Sea Eagles get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Warriors's +0.8.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1468 vs 1460), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.50).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +6.2
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