Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.3 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 42, within 6 points. Roosters led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Roosters have a 65% win rate under this referee. Roosters's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
64%
Rabbitohs
36%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Roosters carry a 249-point ELO rating advantage (1638 vs 1388). Recent form favours Roosters with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Roosters by 11.3 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.40
Winner ✓
Edge
-15.6%
Line / Spread
Roosters -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-15.6%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W W W W L | 33.2 |
Rabbitohs | W W W L L | 21.2 |
Avg Conceded
13.6
Roosters
21.6
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
19.6
Roosters
-0.4
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1504
Roosters
1538
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
5.0
Roosters
4.6
Rabbitohs
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 26 of 40 games (65%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 15 from 33 (45%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Rabbitohs get a +-0.9 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Roosters's -1.4. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Roosters predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: +11.3
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