# Roosters v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 36 – 6 Rabbitohs

_Roosters run riot over Rabbitohs._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 64% / Rabbitohs 36% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 05 Sept, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Mark Nawaqanitawase (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Mark Nawaqanitawase (21' 1st Tipped 🎯), Daniel Tupou (42' Tipped ⚡), Connor Watson (44'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (52' 1st Tipped 🎯), Angus Crichton (65') · Rabbitohs: Ashton Ward (24')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 64% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.3 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Roosters 36–6 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 27 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-three missed tackles. That's what Souths coughed up against a Roosters side that scored 36 points to 6 at Allianz Stadium, and it's not a coincidence that a defence leaking at that rate ran into a backline with eight line breaks in it.

Mark Nawaqanitawase set the tone in the fourth minute and never really let up, finishing with a hat-trick. He opened the scoring, doubled it at 20', then added a third after the break to push the margin past reach. Daniel Tupou, Connor Watson and Angus Crichton all crossed as well, five different try-scoring moments for a Roosters side that just kept finding the same soft edges. Ashton Ward's try in the 24th minute was the only response Souths could muster, and it briefly had them within four points at 10-6. That's as close as it got.

The interval score, 10-6, undersold what was coming. Roosters went back-to-back either side of half-time, Tupou crossing in the 41st minute right after the break and Watson following up three minutes later to make it 20-6. From there Nawaqanitawase's third try at 52' and Crichton's at 64' turned a manageable deficit into a 30-point beating. Jamie Humphreys spending time in the sin bin at the end of the first half didn't help Souths' cause either, arriving right as the Roosters were building momentum.

Souths were actually the tidier side with ball in hand, completing at 78% to the Roosters' 69% and giving away just 9 errors to 17. On another day that discipline wins you the arm wrestle. It didn't matter here, because the game wasn't decided by who held the ball cleanest, it was decided by what happened when Roosters had it. They ran for 1,841 metres to 1,467, banked 712 post-contact metres, and broke 43 tackles to Souths' 24. Every collision seemed to go their way.

The forward pack and halves ratings going in actually favoured Souths, 1188 to 1061 up front and 1340 to 1148 in the halves. None of that showed up in how the game was played. Roosters' 17 offloads to 12 kept the ball alive through contact in exactly the areas where Souths' bigger edge was supposed to count, and their defensive effort, 88.2% to 82.1% and conceding almost half as many missed tackles, meant Souths never got the field position to make their kicking game, 530 metres to 419, count for anything.

Alphr's model had Roosters favourites at 64% and picked the margin at 11.3, which was never going to survive a night like this. The actual margin was 30, nearly three times the call, though the total score prediction of 48 landed within 6 of the real number. Roosters' last-five form, averaging 33.2 points scored against 13.6 conceded, was closer to the truth than the margin model wanted to admit. Souths came in averaging a near-even margin over their last five and left Allianz Stadium a long way short of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 10 | 26 | 36 |
| Rabbitohs | 6 | 0 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 69% | Completion rate | **78%** |
| **1,841** | Run metres | 1,467 |
| **712** | Post-contact metres | 552 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **43** | Tackle breaks | 24 |
| **17** | Offloads | 12 |
| **88.2%** | Effective tackle % | 82.1% |
| **24** | Missed tackles | 43 |
| 17 | Errors | **9** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 419 | Kick metres | **530** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.3 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 42, within 6 points. Roosters led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 6/16 on this match. Roosters covered the 8.5-point line. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Roosters have a 67% win rate under this referee. Roosters's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 20' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 24' Try — Ashton Ward (Rabbitohs) — 10-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 40' Sin Bin — Jamie Humphreys (Rabbitohs) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 41' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 44' Try — Connor Watson (Roosters) — 20-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 52' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 64' Try — Angus Crichton (Roosters) — 34-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.40 (edge -15.6%) — model probability 64.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -15.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 11 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 64%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 249 ELO points clear, 1638 to 1388. Form leans Roosters' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Rabbitohs.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Roosters by 11.3, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 50-20 in 2026 Round 27.

Rabbitohs are 3-9 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Roosters 8th against Rabbitohs 13th.

Rabbitohs come in fresher, 15 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 7 · Rabbitohs 3 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 50-20 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters at home | 6-6 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 8th · Rabbitohs 13th |
| Finals odds | Roosters 100% · Rabbitohs 0% |
| Rest gap | Roosters 7d · Rabbitohs 15d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 30W–15L | 67% |
| Rabbitohs | 16W–20L | 44% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 30 of 45 games (67%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 16 from 36 (44%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +-0.4 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Roosters's -0.8. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 33.2pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 1504.4m | Run Metres | 1537.6m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 308.4 | Tackles | 341.6 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 8.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 4W–1L | 33.2 |
| Rabbitohs | 3W–2L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Rabbitohs | 50 – 20 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R2 | Roosters | 26 – 18 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R5 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 14 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R27 | Rabbitohs | 28 – 36 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R3 | Roosters | 48 – 6 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.87 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 17th there (2.17 conceded/game). Key man: Tedesco, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.52 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 1st there (0.78 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.48/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) | 0.65/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.87/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.78/g (def 11th) | 1.09/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.17/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.22/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.52/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 17 | 6 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 161m/g | 151m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 85.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 70 · 49 | 48 · 51 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 715m/g | 650m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.6/g | 12.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.3% | 78.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 15 | 17 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 497m/g | 497m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.8% | 89.6% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.45/g (lg 0.27) +67% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.21) +29%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.27) +33% · Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 11 in 23g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 18/28g | 25/47g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 64% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 18 in 22g | 12/10g (0·1·1·2·1·2·0·2·3·0) | 11/24g | 71/97g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.48 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 3/8g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 7 in 20g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 20 in 22g | 11/10g (2·2·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·4) | 1/1g | 7/9g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.46 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 21' 52' |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | 5/8 | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 19% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 7/18g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/15g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | INT | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 6/41g | 12% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/29g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 7/28g | 24% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 12 | Victor Radley | 2R | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 7/40g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Naufahu Whyte | LK | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Benaiah Ioelu | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Egan Butcher | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/18g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Siua Wong | INT | 3 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/12g | 19% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 5 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/2g | 0/1g | 29% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 15 in 15g | 9/10g (1·4·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 18/23g | 9/18g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Isaiah Tass | CE | 5 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 2/6g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Tyrone Munro | WG | 7 in 12g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ashton Ward | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 8 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Siliva Havili | HK | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 9 in 23g | 9/10g (1·0·2·2·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 0/4g | 2/2g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jai Arrow | 2R | 2 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Brandon Smith | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/17g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Host | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Cody Walker | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/21g | 2/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Murray | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/15g | 1/8g | 18% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1638 · Rabbitohs 1388 · ELO difference: 249 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1061 (best 1239) | 1188 (best 1351) | Rabbitohs +127 |
| Backs | 1129 (best 1200) | 1119 (best 1227) | Roosters +10 |
| Halves | 1148 (best 1148) | 1340 (best 1340) | Rabbitohs +191 |
| Hooker | 815 | 635 | Roosters +180 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Roosters predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)