AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 76 points was 26 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Eels's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend — Eels have a 38% win rate under this referee. Eels's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Eels to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 56 points. The game's 76 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 46. Eels led 34–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 56. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Eels
68%
Knights
32%
AI Match Overview
Eels are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Knights. The model sees Eels ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Eels carry a 181-point ELO rating advantage (1444 vs 1263). Recent form favours Eels with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Knights. The margin model predicts Eels by 9.7 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.25
Winner ✓
Edge
-15.5%
Line / Spread
Eels -11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-15.5%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+14.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WWWLL | 20.2 |
Knights | LLLLL | 12.4 |
Avg Conceded
17.2
Eels
43.2
Knights
Avg Margin
3.0
Eels
-30.8
Knights
Run Metres
1582
Eels
1418
Knights
Line Breaks
3.8
Eels
3.4
Knights
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Eels hold a 13‑point edge: 3W–5L (38%) vs Knights's 1W–3L (25%) across all games Wyatt Raymond has refereed for each side. His games average 49.5 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Eels an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 4 games for Knights — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
49.5 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Eels predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +9.7
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