NRL | Round 27

alphr.com.au

PAR
Eels
VS
NEW
Knights
COMMBANK STADIUM, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 7 SEPT, 4:05 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 76 points was 26 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Eels's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend — Eels have a 38% win rate under this referee. Eels's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Eels to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 56 points. The game's 76 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 46. Eels led 34–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 56. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

68%EelsFavourite

Eels

68%

Knights

32%

AI Match Overview

Eels are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Knights. The model sees Eels ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Eels carry a 181-point ELO rating advantage (1444 vs 1263). Recent form favours Eels with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Knights. The margin model predicts Eels by 9.7 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Eels to Win @1.25

Winner ✓

Edge

-15.5%

Line / Spread

Eels -11.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-15.5%

Total Points

Under 51.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+14.3%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Eels
WWWLL
20.2
Knights
LLLLL
12.4

Avg Conceded

17.2

Eels

43.2

Knights

Avg Margin

3.0

Eels

-30.8

Knights

Run Metres

1582

Eels

1418

Knights

Line Breaks

3.8

Eels

3.4

Knights

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Eels
Wyatt Raymond40 games since 2024

Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

PAR
38%3W 5L
NEW
25%1W 3L

Eels hold a 13‑point edge: 3W–5L (38%) vs Knights's 1W–3L (25%) across all games Wyatt Raymond has refereed for each side. His games average 49.5 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Eels an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 4 games for Knights — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

49.5 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Eels lead 4-1
May 2025PAR 28 - 6 NEW
Jul 2024PAR 26 - 34 NEW
May 2023PAR 43 - 12 NEW
Apr 2022PAR 39 - 2 NEW
Sep 2021PAR 28 - 20 NEW
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

PAR
1444Overall1263
NEW
ELO difference: +181 in favour of Eels

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1007Forwards1027
Best: 1235NEW +20Best: 1224
990Backs975
Best: 1102PAR +16Best: 1053
1214Halves705
Best: 1214PAR +510Best: 705
1058Hooker1079
NEW +21

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

PAR
Stat
NEW
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
20.2pts
Avg Score
12.4pts
17.2pts
Avg Conceded
43.2pts
3.0pts
Avg Margin
-30.8pts
1582.2m
Run Metres
1418.0m
3.8
Line Breaks
3.4
349.4
Tackles
374.6
11.6
Errors
14.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Eels
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Knights
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Eels
4
Halves Control9.0%
Eels
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Eels
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Eels
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Eels

Model Confidence

68%

Eels predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +9.7

2/3 match predictions correct
Coming Soon

Try Scorer Predictions

AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props