# Eels v Knights — NRL Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 66 – 10 Knights

_Eels run riot over Knights._

Half time: 34 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 68% / Knights 32% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 07 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Dylan Brown (2' 1st), Mitchell Moses (5'), Mitchell Moses (17'), Ryley Smith (20'), Matt Doorey (33'), Mitchell Moses (35'), Josh Addo-Carr (44' Tipped ⚡), Josh Addo-Carr (46' Tipped ⚡), Junior Paulo (49'), Josh Addo-Carr (72' Tipped ⚡), Tallyn Da Silva (76'), Will Penisini (78' Tipped ⚡) · Knights: Jermaine McEwen (27'), Greg Marzhew (56' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 68% | Won |
| Knights | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 56 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Eels 66–10 Knights in NRL Round 27 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty points up at the break, and the only real question at half-time was whether the second half would ease off or pile on. It piled on.

Eels led 34-4 at the interval at CommBank Stadium, four tries deep with Dylan Brown opening the account inside the first minute and Mitchell Moses following up with a hat-trick of his own before the 35-minute mark. Jermaine McEwen's try on 27 minutes was the only blemish, and even that came with Eels already 22-4 up. By half-time the contest had the shape of a procession, not a footy match.

The second half didn't rewrite anything, it just kept writing the same sentence. Josh Addo-Carr crossed twice in three minutes either side of the break to push it to 42-4, Junior Paulo added another, and by the 48th minute it was 48-4. Greg Marzhew got the Knights a second try on 55 minutes, but Addo-Carr completed his hat-trick, Tallyn Da Silva and a penalty try to Will Penisini rounded it out. Final score: 66-10. Second-half points split 32-6, which tells you the game never eased, it just kept its foot down.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard already screamed. Eels ran for 1,966 metres to the Knights' 1,104, and broke the line 12 times to 3, numbers that explain why the Knights' defence conceded 44 missed tackles against 28 of their own attempted breaks. Eels also picked up 512 post-contact metres, the sort of number you get when a forward pack keeps getting go-forward after first contact.

Oddly, the Knights were the tidier side with ball in hand, completing at 86% to the Eels' 78% and coughing up just 6 errors to 9. It didn't matter. When you're missing 44 tackles and giving up 12 line breaks, a clean completion rate is just a footnote.

The pre-match numbers pointed this way without predicting quite how far. Eels came in with a halves rating of 1214 against the Knights' 705, about as lopsided a positional edge as you'll see in a form guide, and Moses's four try involvements in general play made that gap look conservative rather than generous. The Knights arrived off five straight losses, conceding an average of 43.2 points a game, and this one landed right in that neighbourhood.

Alphr's model backed Eels at 68% and had them winning by 9.7 on a total of 46. The winner was right, the shape wasn't: the actual margin was 56, the total blew out to 76, and the model finished 5 from 16 on the match markers. Eels covered the 11.5 line without much sweat.

Nothing about the Knights' portion of the ledger changes the story. Two tries, some defensive resistance early, and otherwise a night where the gap between the two forward-pack and halves ratings turned into exactly what it looked like on paper, just multiplied.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 34 | 32 | 66 |
| Knights | 4 | 6 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **61%** | Possession | 39% |
| 78% | Completion rate | **86%** |
| **1,966** | Run metres | 1,104 |
| **512** | Post-contact metres | 346 |
| **12** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 28 |
| **13** | Offloads | 10 |
| **85.0%** | Effective tackle % | 84.3% |
| **28** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| 9 | Errors | **6** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 542 | Kick metres | **594** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Eels to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 56 points. The game's 76 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 46. Eels led 34–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 56. The model went 5/16 on this match. Eels covered the 11.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 76 points was 26 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Eels's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Eels have a 40% win rate under this referee. Eels's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — Dylan Brown (Eels) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 4' Try — Mitchell Moses (Eels) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 16' Try — Mitchell Moses (Eels) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 20' Try — Ryley Smith (Eels) — 20-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 27' Try — Jermaine McEwen (Knights) — 22-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 32' Try — Matt Doorey (Eels) — 26-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 35' Try — Mitchell Moses (Eels) — 32-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 43' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 38-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 46' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 42-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 48' Try — Junior Paulo (Eels) — 48-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 55' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 50-8 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 72' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 54-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 75' Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Eels) — 60-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 78' Penalty Try — Will Penisini (Eels) — 64-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.25 (edge -15.5%) — model probability 67.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -15.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.3%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Eels by 10 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Eels here: 68% to see off Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Eels sit 181 ELO points clear, 1444 to 1263. Form leans Eels' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Knights.

Eels own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Eels by 9.7, with the two sides combining for about 46. Eels to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Eels have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 28-22 in 2026 Round 13.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Eels 12th against Knights 16th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 8 · Knights 2 |
| Last meeting | Knights 28-22 |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 12th · Knights 16th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Knights 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Eels

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 4W–6L | 40% |
| Knights | 3W–7L | 30% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Eels hold a 10-point edge: 4W–6L (40%) vs Knights's 3W–7L (30%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Eels get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Knights's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 20.2pts | Avg Score | 12.4pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 43.2pts |
| 3.0pts | Avg Margin | -30.8pts |
| 1582.2m | Run Metres | 1418.0m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 3.4 |
| 349.4 | Tackles | 374.6 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 14.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 3W–2L | 20.2 |
| Knights | 0W–5L | 12.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R13 | Knights | 28 – 22 | Eels |
| 2025 | R11 | Knights | 6 – 28 | Eels |
| 2024 | R17 | Knights | 34 – 26 | Eels |
| 2023 | R9 | Eels | 43 – 12 | Knights |
| 2022 | R7 | Knights | 2 – 39 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 14th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Iongi, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 16th-ranked left edge attack (0.87 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 13th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Best, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.87/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 1.3/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 8th) | 0.96/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.65/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 9 | 11 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 161m/g | 185m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.3% | 87.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 46 · 57 | 33 · 51 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 734m/g | 766m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.1/g | 22.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.7% | 74.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 20 | 9 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 474m/g | 514m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 6.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 91% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.42) +2%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.69) +30% · Wingers 1.61/g (lg 1.25) +29%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 8 in 20g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 4/10g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 9 in 18g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 6/9g | 4/18g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.59 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 15/44g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 5 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 14/30g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 16 in 21g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·2·0·2·1) | 11/15g | 13/19g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.40 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' 46' 72' |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 15/64g | 22% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/15g | 17/60g | 28% | — | 🏉 5' 17' 35' |
| 8 | J'maine Hopgood | PR | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 3/28g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 0% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 9/82g | 4% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Williams | 2R | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 1/16g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Dylan Walker | LK | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/15g | 2/16g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 11% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 15 | Matt Doorey | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/24g | 6% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 16 | Charlie Guymer | INT | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 21% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Samrani | INT | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 3/10g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Hunt | FB | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 10 in 18g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/2g | 2/2g | 52% | — | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/16g | 7/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 0/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| 6 | Jake Arthur | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | LK | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1444 · Knights 1263 · ELO difference: 181 in favour of Eels

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1007 (best 1235) | 1027 (best 1224) | Knights +20 |
| Backs | 990 (best 1102) | 975 (best 1053) | Eels +16 |
| Halves | 1214 (best 1214) | 705 (best 705) | Eels +510 |
| Hooker | 1058 | 1079 | Knights +21 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Eels |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Eels |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Eels |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Eels |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Eels predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)