# Dragons v Panthers — NRL Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 20 – 40 Panthers

_Panthers maul Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 36% / Panthers 64% · WIN Stadium, Wollongong · Sat, 06 Sept, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Kyle Flanagan (20'), Corey Allan (47'), Tyrell Sloan (53' Tipped ⚡), Jaydn Su'A (75' Tipped ⚡) · Panthers: Thomas Jenkins (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Paul Alamoti (16' Tipped ⚡), Casey McLean (33' Tipped ⚡), Nathan Cleary (37'), Isaiah Papali'i (60'), Lindsay Smith (66'), Paul Alamoti (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 64% | Won |
| Dragons | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.5 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dragons 20–40 Panthers in NRL Round 27 at WIN Stadium, Wollongong. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Panthers led 22-6 at the break, three tries inside the first 36 minutes doing the early work. Thomas Jenkins scored inside five minutes, Paul Alamoti added a second on 15, and by the time Nathan Cleary crossed on 36 the margin was already 14 points. Kyle Flanagan's try on 19 was the Dragons' only answer before the break.

The second half opened as though the Dragons might claw back into it. Corey Allan scored on 47, Tyrell Sloan followed on 53, and the margin was suddenly 14-22 with half an hour still to play. That was as close as it got. Isaiah Papali'i replied on 60, Lindsay Smith crossed again on 65, and Jaydn Su'A's try on 75 came with the margin already past twenty. Alamoti's second, in the 78th minute, rounded out a 40-20 win.

The stat sheet lines up with the scoreboard. Panthers ran for 1,857 metres to the Dragons' 1,257, and that extra go-forward turned into 8 line breaks to 4 and 32 tackle breaks to 21. Post-contact metres told the same story: 512 to 448. When one side keeps winning the collision like that, the other side spends most of the day in defence rather than attack, and the Dragons' effective tackle rate of 89.6% against the Panthers' 92.2% reflects exactly that kind of afternoon.

Oddly, the Dragons were the tidier side with the ball. Six errors to twelve is a big gap, and both sides completed at an identical 82%, so it wasn't sloppy handling that beat St George Illawarra. It was missed tackles: 32 to the Panthers' 21, the kind of number that turns a manageable scoreline into a 20-point loss. Possession was close, 53% to 47% in Panthers' favour, and kick metres actually tilted slightly to the Dragons, 737 to 704, so field position wasn't the killer either. It came down to what happened when the ball was in hand and bodies were on the line.

Alamoti finished with two tries either side of half-time, and Jenkins' early score set up a lead the Dragons never got back in front of. Looking at what each side brought in, this was always shaping as heavy going up front for St George Illawarra. The Panthers' forward pack rated at 1193 against the Dragons' 1091 coming in, and that gap matched the run-metre column all match. The Dragons held the stronger rated halves pairing, 1248 to 1154, and hooker, 1200 to 1031, but neither edge was enough to offset a forward battle lost by that margin.

Form pointed the same way. The Panthers arrived averaging 23.2 points a game to the Dragons' 14.8, with a positive average margin coming in against the Dragons' minus 9.2, and Sunday played out close to that script.

Alphr's model backed the Panthers to win at 64% and got the result right, but the margin was well off: it had Panthers by 7.5, the actual gap was 20. Panthers did cover the 8.5-point line. Across the round, the model finished 6 from 16.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 6 | 14 | 20 |
| Panthers | 22 | 18 | 40 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 82% | Completion rate | 82% |
| 1,257 | Run metres | **1,857** |
| 448 | Post-contact metres | **512** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 21 | Tackle breaks | **32** |
| 8 | Offloads | **11** |
| 89.6% | Effective tackle % | **92.2%** |
| 32 | Missed tackles | **21** |
| **6** | Errors | 12 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| **737** | Kick metres | 704 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.5 but the actual margin was 20 points. The model went 6/16 on this match. Panthers covered the 8.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 16 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Panthers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Panthers have a 67% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 15' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 19' Try — Kyle Flanagan (Dragons) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 32' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 36' Try — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 6-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 47' Try — Corey Allan (Dragons) — 10-22 · win-prob swing +9 pts
- 53' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 14-22 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 60' Try — Isaiah Papali'i (Panthers) — 14-26 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 65' Try — Lindsay Smith (Panthers) — 14-32 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 75' Try — Jaydn Su'A (Dragons) — 18-34 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 78' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 20-38 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.35 (edge -23.8%) — model probability 63.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -23.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 8 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Panthers are the call at 64%, but Dragons stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 236 ELO points clear, 1551 to 1315.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Panthers by 7.5, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Panthers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Panthers have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 28-6 in 2026 Round 11.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four. Panthers have put up 124 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Dragons 15th against Panthers 7th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 1 · Panthers 9 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 28-6 |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons at home | 6-6 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 15th · Panthers 7th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Panthers 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 15W–13L | 54% |
| Panthers | 14W–7L | 67% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Panthers hold a 13-point edge: 14W–7L (67%) vs Dragons's 15W–13L (54%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Dragons get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Panthers's -0.5.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 14.8pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| -9.2pts | Avg Margin | 1.6pts |
| 1635.6m | Run Metres | 1759.8m |
| 3.2 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 376.8 | Tackles | 402.2 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 2W–3L | 14.8 |
| Panthers | 2W–3L | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Panthers | 28 – 6 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R21 | Dragons | 10 – 46 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R13 | Panthers | 10 – 22 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R14 | Panthers | 26 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2022 | R2 | Dragons | 16 – 20 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.22 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 8th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Feagai, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the middle: NRL's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.57 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 14th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Talagi, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.22/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.43/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.35/g (att 10th) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.57/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.78/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.96/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 18 | 10 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 156m/g | 206m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 84.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 53 · 57 | 55 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 733m/g | 791m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14/g | 17.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.6% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 15 | 15 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 489m/g | 496m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.8% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.44/g (lg 0.44) +0% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Fullbacks 0.39/g (lg 0.43) -9%
**Who scores on Dragons** — 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.44) +43% · Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at WIN Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 7 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 10/18g | 2/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 3 | Hayden Buchanan | CE | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 4 | Mathew Feagai | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/19g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 16 in 20g | 7/10g (0·2·1·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 13/17g | 44% | 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' |
| 6 | Lyhkan King-Togia | 5/8 | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 13% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 6 in 23g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 5/10g | 20% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/18g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jacob Halangahu | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/17g | 28% | 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 2/56g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 9 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 1/19g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 6/22g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Hame Sele | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 12 in 20g | 8/10g (3·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 14 in 21g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·1·2·0·2) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| 5 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 10 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 79' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/8g | 3/1g | 28% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 3 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 1/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Luke Garner | 2R | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Henry | INT | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Isaiah Papali'i | INT | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/9g | 0/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 60' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1315 · Panthers 1551 · ELO difference: 236 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1091 (best 1214) | 1193 (best 1243) | Panthers +102 |
| Backs | 972 (best 1071) | 961 (best 1094) | Dragons +11 |
| Halves | 1248 (best 1248) | 1154 (best 1154) | Dragons +94 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 1031 | Dragons +169 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Panthers predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)