Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.5 but the actual margin was 20 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 16 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Panthers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Panthers have a 70% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
36%
Panthers
64%
AI Match Overview
Panthers hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 36%. Dragons are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Venue Advantage, but Panthers counter with ELO Difference and Forward Pack which tips the scales. Panthers carry a 236-point ELO rating advantage (1551 vs 1315). The margin model predicts Panthers by 7.5 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.35
Winner ✓
Edge
-23.8%
Line / Spread
Panthers +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-23.8%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | W W L L L | 14.8 |
Panthers | W W L L L | 23.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Dragons
21.6
Panthers
Avg Margin
-9.2
Dragons
1.6
Panthers
Run Metres
1636
Dragons
1760
Panthers
Line Breaks
3.2
Dragons
5.2
Panthers
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Panthers have won 14 of 20 games (70%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 14 from 27 (52%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Dragons get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Panthers's -0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Panthers predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: -7.5
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