Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 76% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.5 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 86 points came in 44 points higher than the predicted 43. Dolphins led 30–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 86 points was 44 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Dolphins bucked the trend, Raiders historically win 46% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Dolphins's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
76%
Raiders
24%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Raiders. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Raiders carry a 237-point ELO rating advantage (1680 vs 1443). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 12.5 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.36
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.9%
Line / Spread
Dolphins -9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.9%
Total Points
Under 54.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+30.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | W W L L L | 25.2 |
Raiders | W W W W L | 25.6 |
Avg Conceded
41.6
Dolphins
14.8
Raiders
Avg Margin
-16.4
Dolphins
10.8
Raiders
Run Metres
1557
Dolphins
1606
Raiders
Line Breaks
6.4
Dolphins
4.6
Raiders
Referee Indicator
Favours RaidersGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Raiders hold a 8-point edge: 19W–22L (46%) vs Dolphins's 5W–8L (38%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Raiders get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Dolphins's +0.0. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1680 vs 1443), but the market favours Dolphins (@1.36).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
76%
Dolphins predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +12.5
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