# Dolphins v Raiders — NRL Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 62 – 24 Raiders

_Dolphins run riot over Raiders._

Half time: 30 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 76% / Raiders 24% · Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe · Sun, 07 Sept, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Tevita Naufahu (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Oryn Keeley (23'), Jake Averillo (30'), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (34' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (39' Tipped ⚡), Ray Stone (45'), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (51' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nicholls (55'), Tevita Naufahu (61' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jamayne Isaako (73'), Jake Averillo (78') · Raiders: Michael Asomua (41' Tipped ⚡), Noah Martin (57'), Joe Roddy (65'), Joe Roddy (68')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 76% | Won |
| Raiders | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.5 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Dolphins 62–24 Raiders in NRL Round 27 at Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dolphins led 30-0 at half-time at Kayo Stadium, the kind of scoreline that usually means the contest is over and the second half is just a formality. This one didn't play out that way. The two sides combined for 56 points after the break, and by full-time it was Dolphins 62, Raiders 24, a 38-point win but not a quiet one.

The first half was one-way traffic. Tevita Naufahu opened the scoring in the 8th minute, Oryn Keeley added a second in the 23rd, and Jake Averillo crossed in the 29th to make it 16-0. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow then scored twice inside five minutes, in the 33rd and 38th, to push it out to 28-0 before the break. Dolphins had put five tries on the board without reply and the game already looked decided.

Raiders got on the scoreboard almost immediately after the resumption, Michael Asomua crossing to make it 30-4, but Dolphins kept the tries coming rather than sitting on the lead. Ray Stone scored in the 45th, Tabuai-Fidow completed his hat-trick in the 50th, and Mark Nicholls added another in the 55th to push the margin past 40 points.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 30 | 32 | 62 |
| Raiders | 0 | 24 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **58%** | Possession | 42% |
| **75%** | Completion rate | 62% |
| **2,010** | Run metres | 1,089 |
| **498** | Post-contact metres | 335 |
| **15** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **41** | Tackle breaks | 33 |
| **15** | Offloads | 5 |
| **85.8%** | Effective tackle % | 83.1% |
| **33** | Missed tackles | 41 |
| 12 | Errors | 12 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 364 | Kick metres | **418** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 76% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.5 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 86 points came in 44 points higher than the predicted 43. Dolphins led 30–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 6/16 on this match. Dolphins covered the 9.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 86 points was 44 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Dolphins bucked the trend, Raiders historically win 49% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Dolphins's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — Tevita Naufahu (Dolphins) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 23' Try — Oryn Keeley (Dolphins) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 29' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 33' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 38' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 28-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 40' Try — Michael Asomua (Raiders) — 30-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 45' Try — Ray Stone (Dolphins) — 34-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 50' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 40-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 55' Try — Mark Nicholls (Dolphins) — 46-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 57' Try — Noah Martin (Raiders) — 48-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 61' Try — Tevita Naufahu (Dolphins) — 52-12 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 65' Try — Joe Roddy (Raiders) — 52-16 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 67' Try — Joe Roddy (Raiders) — 52-22 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 73' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 56-24 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 78' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 60-24 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.36 (edge -4.9%) — model probability 75.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 13 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dolphins here: 76% to see off Raiders. The ratings say otherwise: Raiders sit 237 ELO points clear, 1680 to 1443, so the model is backing Dolphins against the ratings gap. Form leans Raiders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Dolphins.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Dolphins by 12.5, with the two sides combining for about 43. Dolphins to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 3 wins apiece from the last 6.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 9th against Raiders 1st.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Dolphins 3 · Raiders 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 30-22 |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins at home | 7-5 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 9th · Raiders 1st |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 0% · Raiders 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 6W–8L | 43% |
| Raiders | 21W–22L | 49% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Raiders hold a 6-point edge: 21W–22L (49%) vs Dolphins's 6W–8L (43%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 41.6pts | Avg Conceded | 14.8pts |
| -16.4pts | Avg Margin | 10.8pts |
| 1557.0m | Run Metres | 1605.8m |
| 6.4 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 337.4 | Tackles | 350.4 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 2W–3L | 25.2 |
| Raiders | 4W–1L | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Raiders | 22 – 30 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R8 | Raiders | 40 – 28 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R13 | Dolphins | 25 – 26 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R9 | Raiders | 31 – 30 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R2 | Dolphins | 20 – 14 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.22 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 16th there (1.57 conceded/game). Key man: Naufahu, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.13 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 10th there (1.74 conceded/game). Key man: Pattie, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.22/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 12th) | 1.43/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.52/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.74/g (def 10th) | 2.13/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.13/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.78/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 16 | 19 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 219m/g | 164m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 64 · 62 | 52 · 50 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 761m/g | 676m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.9/g | 17.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.1% | 77.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 13 | 30 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 488m/g | 604m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 92.1% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47% · Centres 0.92/g (lg 0.69) +33% · 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.44) +11%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.21) +43% · Centres 0.92/g (lg 0.69) +33% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Kayo Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trai Fuller | FB | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 35% | — | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 10 in 23g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/7g | 34% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 9 in 23g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 4/6g | 38% | — | 🏉 30' 78' |
| 4 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | CE | 19 in 20g | 12/10g (1·2·1·4·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/5g | 6/4g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.54 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 39' 51' |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | WG | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.59 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 61' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 8 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/13g | 4/8g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 4 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/8g | 2/6g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/16g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 16% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 13 | Kurt Donoghoe | LK | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Aublix Tawha | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Ray Stone | INT | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/5g | 6% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 16 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/7g | 6% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chevy Stewart | FB | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 8 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Michael Asomua | WG | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' |
| 6 | Adam Cook | 5/8 | no games | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | HK | 2 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Ata Mariota | PR | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Noah Martin | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | 2R | 5 in 9g | 5/9g (2·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.25 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Danny Levi | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Trey Mooney | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Manaia Waitere | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Roddy | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 65' 68' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1680 vs 1443), but the market favours Dolphins (@1.36). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1443 · Raiders 1680 · ELO difference: 237 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1109 (best 1270) | 1022 (best 1199) | Dolphins +87 |
| Backs | 1087 (best 1200) | 901 (best 1040) | Dolphins +186 |
| Halves | 1346 (best 1346) | 1207 (best 1207) | Dolphins +138 |
| Hooker | 1061 | 884 | Dolphins +177 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)