Win Probability
AI Game Review
Sharks defied the model's 63% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.5 but the actual margin was 18 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 14 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Sharks bucked the trend, Bulldogs historically win 57% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Sharks prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
63%
Sharks
37%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Sharks are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. Recent form favours Sharks with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 4.5 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.60
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.8%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.8%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | W W L L L | 20.0 |
Sharks | W W W W L | 30.8 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Bulldogs
16.8
Sharks
Avg Margin
0.4
Bulldogs
14.0
Sharks
Run Metres
1460
Bulldogs
1719
Sharks
Line Breaks
6.4
Bulldogs
5.0
Sharks
Referee Indicator
Favours BulldogsAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Bulldogs hold a 13-point edge: 23W–17L (57%) vs Sharks's 25W–32L (44%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Sharks get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Bulldogs's +0.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +4.5
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