# Bulldogs v Sharks — NRL Round 27 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 6 – 24 Sharks

_Sharks sink their teeth into Bulldogs._

Half time: 0 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 63% / Sharks 37% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 06 Sept, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Enari Tuala (45' Tipped ⚡) · Sharks: Billy Burns (25' 1st), Jesse Ramien (31'), Blayke Brailey (38'), Daniel Atkinson (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 63% | Lost |
| Sharks | 37% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.5 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 27 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 6–24 Sharks in NRL Round 27 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve minutes did the damage. Between the 25th and 37th, the Sharks scored three tries without reply, Billy Burns, Jesse Ramien and Blayke Brailey all crossing to turn a scoreless game into an 18-0 canter. By half-time it was already a done deal, and the Bulldogs spent the second half chasing a margin that never looked like closing. Final score: Sharks 24, Bulldogs 6.

Enari Tuala got the Bulldogs on the board in the 45th, but Daniel Atkinson answered for the Sharks twelve minutes later and the contest was effectively over from there. Six points was as close as the home side got.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard already told you. Sharks ran 55% of the possession and completed at 95%, against a Bulldogs completion rate of 82% and 12 errors to the Sharks' 9. When one side is that much cleaner with the ball, the other side simply doesn't get enough cracks at it.

Where it really told was up front. The Sharks piled on 641 post-contact metres to the Bulldogs' 475, a gap of 166 metres made after first contact, the kind of number that says the pack was winning the collisions all night. Add 845 kick metres to the Sharks' 635 and you've got a side that had the Bulldogs pinned in their own end for long stretches. The Bulldogs actually shaded a couple of the ledger items, four line breaks to three and a better effective tackle rate at 88.5% to 85.6%, but none of it mattered without the ball or the field position to use it.

The pre-match ratings had this as a form reversal waiting to happen: Bulldogs' halves rated at 1350 against the Sharks' 1005, a big edge on paper. But the Sharks held the stronger hooker rating, 1039 to 847, and the stronger backline, 1038 to 953, and it was that spine and outside class, not the halves matchup, that put four try scorers on the board. Recent form pointed the same way. The Sharks arrived on four wins from five, averaging 30.8 points and an average margin of plus-14, while the Bulldogs were treading water at 2 from 5 with a margin of just 0.4. Form won.

Alphr's model had backed the Bulldogs at 63% and predicted them to win by 4.5 in a 41-point game. Instead the Sharks won by 18, and the model finished 2 from 16 on this one, a rough night for the margin and result calls even though the under 44.5 total landed. Ratings had these two close, 1579 to 1563, but ratings don't account for one side scoring three unanswered tries in twelve minutes and the other side never recovering.

Bulldogs will point to the tackle-break count, 35 to 37, and the extra line break as signs the attack wasn't the problem. It wasn't. The problem was letting the Sharks get 18 points clear before halfway through the game, and no amount of second-half enterprise was going to undo that.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Sharks | 18 | 6 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 82% | Completion rate | **95%** |
| 1,519 | Run metres | **1,675** |
| 475 | Post-contact metres | **641** |
| **4** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 35 | Tackle breaks | **37** |
| **10** | Offloads | 8 |
| **88.5%** | Effective tackle % | 85.6% |
| 37 | Missed tackles | **35** |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 635 | Kick metres | **845** |

**Model Report Card**

Sharks defied the model's 63% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.5 but the actual margin was 18 points. The model went 2/16 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 13 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Sharks bucked the trend, Bulldogs historically win 56% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Sharks prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 25' Try — Billy Burns (Sharks) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 31' Try — Jesse Ramien (Sharks) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 37' Try — Blayke Brailey (Sharks) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 45' Try — Enari Tuala (Bulldogs) — 4-18 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 57' Try — Daniel Atkinson (Sharks) — 6-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.60 (edge -2.8%) — model probability 63.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 5 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 63%, but Sharks stay live at 37%. Form leans Sharks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Bulldogs.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Bulldogs by 4.5, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sharks have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 38-16 in 2026 Round 11.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 3rd against Sharks 5th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 2 · Sharks 8 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 38-16 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks away | 6-8 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 3rd · Sharks 5th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 23W–18L | 56% |
| Sharks | 26W–34L | 43% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Bulldogs hold a 13-point edge: 23W–18L (56%) vs Sharks's 26W–34L (43%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 30.8pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| 0.4pts | Avg Margin | 14.0pts |
| 1460.2m | Run Metres | 1718.6m |
| 6.4 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 325.4 | Tackles | 336.0 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 2W–3L | 20.0 |
| Sharks | 4W–1L | 30.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Sharks | 38 – 16 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R4 | Sharks | 6 – 20 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R17 | Bulldogs | 15 – 14 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R2 | Sharks | 25 – 6 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R16 | Sharks | 48 – 10 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 11th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Preston, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.57 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 6th there (1.09 conceded/game). Key man: Mulitalo, 14 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.04/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.57/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.57/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.91/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.91/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.3/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.87/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.83/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 6 | 16 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 208m/g | 184m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 87.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 42 · 43 | 54 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 766m/g | 742m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 17.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.6% | 80.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 13 | 22 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 447m/g | 519m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 90.4% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Centres 0.77/g (lg 0.69) +12%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.5/g (lg 0.44) +14% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.69) +3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/20g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Enari Tuala | WG | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 2/6g | 3/9g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 5/20g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 13/25g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 13/34g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/8g | 14/34g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 3/7g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/35g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Samuel Hughes | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/17g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/12g | 8/28g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 11 in 19g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·3) | 1/4g | 8/22g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/26g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 8/28g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/11g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.00 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Josh Curran | PR | 4 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 4/21g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Reed Mahoney | INT | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 5/46g | 12% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 8 in 23g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 3/5g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 9/7g | 7/7g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/7g | 16% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (1·2·1·1·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 48% | — | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 14 in 22g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·2·3) | 6/8g | 2/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 7 in 23g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/9g | 1/8g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 6 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/14g | 1/11g | 26% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 2 in 23g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/6g | 10% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Billy Burns | 2R | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Jesse Colquhoun | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 1/11g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1579 · Sharks 1563 · ELO difference: 17 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1095 (best 1324) | 1121 (best 1209) | Sharks +26 |
| Backs | 953 (best 1046) | 1038 (best 1080) | Sharks +84 |
| Halves | 1350 (best 1350) | 1005 (best 1005) | Bulldogs +345 |
| Hooker | 847 | 1039 | Sharks +192 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)