Win Probability
AI Game Review
Broncos defied the model's 58% prediction for Storm, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.0 but the actual margin was 16 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. Broncos led 12–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Broncos bucked the trend, Storm historically win 65% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
42%
Storm
58%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Broncos are far from out of this at 42%. Broncos are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage, but Storm counter with ELO Difference and Halves Control which tips the scales. Storm carry a 107-point ELO rating advantage (1678 vs 1571). The margin model predicts Storm by 4.0 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
-7.3%
Line / Spread
Storm +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-7.3%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | W W W W L | 36.8 |
Storm | W W W W L | 18.0 |
Avg Conceded
21.2
Broncos
16.8
Storm
Avg Margin
15.6
Broncos
1.2
Storm
Run Metres
1760
Broncos
1547
Storm
Line Breaks
8.0
Broncos
3.0
Storm
Referee Indicator
Favours StormGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 34 of 52 games (65%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 23 from 48 (48%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Storm predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -4.0
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