Win Probability
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 68% prediction for Warriors, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.6 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Eels bucked the trend, Warriors historically win 52% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
68%
Eels
32%
AI Match Overview
Warriors are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Warriors ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Warriors carry a 82-point ELO rating advantage (1497 vs 1415). Recent form favours Eels with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Warriors. The margin model predicts Warriors by 5.6 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.56
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.8%
Line / Spread
Warriors -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.8%
Total Points
Under 42.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-0.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | W W L L L | 18.8 |
Eels | W W W L L | 19.4 |
Avg Conceded
20.8
Warriors
16.8
Eels
Avg Margin
-2.0
Warriors
2.6
Eels
Run Metres
1640
Warriors
1524
Eels
Line Breaks
2.8
Warriors
4.0
Eels
Referee Indicator
Favours WarriorsPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Warriors have won 12 of 23 games (52%), significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 30 (33%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Warriors predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +5.6
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