AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Eels bucked the trend — Warriors historically win 55% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 68% prediction for Warriors — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.6 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Warriors
68%
Eels
32%
AI Match Overview
Warriors are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Warriors ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Warriors carry a 82-point ELO rating advantage (1497 vs 1415). Recent form favours Eels with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Warriors. The margin model predicts Warriors by 5.6 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.56
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.8%
Line / Spread
Warriors -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.8%
Total Points
Under 42.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-0.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | WWLLL | 18.8 |
Eels | WWWLL | 19.4 |
Avg Conceded
20.8
Warriors
16.8
Eels
Avg Margin
-2.0
Warriors
2.6
Eels
Run Metres
1640
Warriors
1524
Eels
Line Breaks
2.8
Warriors
4.0
Eels
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Peter Gough officiates, Warriors have won 12 of 22 games (55%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Eels's 9 from 26 (35%). That's a 20‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.2 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Warriors predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +5.6
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