# Warriors v Eels — NRL Round 26 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 22 – 26 Eels

_Eels hold off a fast-finishing Warriors._

Half time: 4 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 68% / Eels 32% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Fri, 29 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Adam Pompey (20' Tipped ⚡), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (56' Tipped ⚡), Leka Halasima (61' Tipped ⚡), Leka Halasima (71' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Josh Addo-Carr (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Williams (15'), Isaiah Iongi (49'), Isaiah Iongi (64')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 68% | Lost |
| Eels | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.6 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 26 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 22–26 Eels in NRL Round 26 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had the Warriors at 68% and a 5.6-point favourite, backed by the better forward pack rating and the better halves. Eels won 26-22. The model wasn't far off on the margin, out by less than two points on that count, it just backed the wrong side to be in front at the end.

That's the thing about a 4-point game decided by field position. The Warriors did most of what a favourite is supposed to do. They had 54% of the ball, broke the line five times to three, ran for 2,046 metres to 1,673 and put up 725 post-contact metres to the Eels's 502. They were the harder side to tackle all night, forcing 39 tackle breaks against 22. On paper that's a beatdown.

The Eels won anyway, because they didn't need the ball to hurt the Warriors. Josh Addo-Carr got them going inside three minutes, Jack Williams made it 10-0 by the 15th, and the Warriors didn't hit the board until Adam Pompey crossed in the 19th. Eels led 12-4 at the break off the back of that opening burst, and a Warriors side that had the better halves rating on paper couldn't find enough go-forward early to make it count where it mattered.

Second half, the Warriors did start clawing it back. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck went over in the 55th, Leka Halasima got the first of his two five minutes later, and suddenly it was 14-20 with the momentum looking like it belonged to the home side. But Isaiah Iongi crossed for his second in the 63rd to push the Eels back out to eight, and even when Halasima's second try in the 70th made it 20-26, the Warriors never found the one score they needed to level it up.

The Eels won the game where discipline usually decides these things: with ball in hand and off the tee. They completed at 91% to the Warriors's 81%, coughing the ball up just seven times to eleven, and their kicking game did real work, 883 metres to the Warriors's 589.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 4 | 18 | 22 |
| Eels | 12 | 14 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| 81% | Completion rate | **91%** |
| **2,046** | Run metres | 1,673 |
| **725** | Post-contact metres | 502 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **39** | Tackle breaks | 22 |
| 7 | Offloads | 7 |
| **92.2%** | Effective tackle % | 88.7% |
| **22** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| 11 | Errors | **7** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 589 | Kick metres | **883** |

**Model Report Card**

Eels defied the model's 68% prediction for Warriors, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.6 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The model went 5/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Eels bucked the trend, Warriors historically win 52% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 15' Try — Jack Williams (Eels) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 19' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 49' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 4-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 55' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 8-20 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 60' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 14-20 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 63' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 16-24 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 70' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 20-26 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.56 (edge +3.8%) — model probability 67.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 6 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warriors here: 68% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 82 ELO points clear, 1497 to 1415. Form leans Eels' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Warriors.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Warriors by 5.6, with the two sides combining for about 42. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Warriors to win, not to win big.

Eels have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 36-14 in 2026 Round 9.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 4th against Eels 14th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 3 · Eels 7 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 36-14 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 4th · Eels 14th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Eels 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 12W–11L | 52% |
| Eels | 10W–20L | 33% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Warriors have won 12 of 23 games (52%), significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 30 (33%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 18.8pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | 2.6pts |
| 1640.0m | Run Metres | 1523.8m |
| 2.8 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 350.4 | Tackles | 336.2 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 2W–3L | 18.8 |
| Eels | 3W–2L | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Eels | 14 – 36 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R22 | Warriors | 20 – 30 | Eels |
| 2023 | R19 | Eels | 10 – 46 | Warriors |
| 2022 | R18 | Eels | 28 – 18 | Warriors |
| 2021 | R10 | Warriors | 18 – 34 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.23 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 13th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Tuivasa-Sheck, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the left edge: NRL's 15th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 15th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Addo-Carr, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.23/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.45/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.27/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.45/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.95/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 8 | 11 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 163m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.9% | 86% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 39 · 53 | 43 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 667m/g | 731m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13/g | 16.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.5% | 79.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 13 | 11 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 528m/g | 472m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 91.2% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.69) +30%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.69) +1% · Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0% · Wingers 1.21/g (lg 1.25) -3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 6/26g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 20/32g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 10 in 22g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·2·1) | 0/4g | 7/31g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| 4 | Rocco Berry | CE | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/13g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 11 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 9/12g | 14/54g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 8 in 21g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 12/25g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 0/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/31g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 3/16g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 5/23g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/16g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | INT | 10 in 22g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/11g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' 71' |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 6 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 49' 64' |
| 2 | Zac Lomax | WG | 9 in 17g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·1·2·0·0·2·0) | 5/8g | 1/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 15 in 20g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·2·0·2) | 11/13g | 4/8g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| 6 | Joash Papalii | 5/8 | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 1/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | J'maine Hopgood | PR | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Williams | 2R | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 13 | Dylan Walker | LK | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 3/22g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Matt Doorey | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Charlie Guymer | INT | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Samrani | INT | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1497 · Eels 1415 · ELO difference: 82 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1086 (best 1291) | 1003 (best 1240) | Warriors +83 |
| Backs | 956 (best 1118) | 963 (best 1036) | Eels +7 |
| Halves | 1180 (best 1180) | 1102 (best 1102) | Warriors +78 |
| Hooker | 1022 | 1065 | Eels +43 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Eels |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Warriors predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)