Win Probability
AI Game Review
Roosters defied the model's 63% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.4 but the actual margin was 30 points. Roosters trailed 10–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 10–40. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The 50-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 46. Roosters bucked the trend, Storm historically win 69% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
63%
Roosters
37%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Roosters are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Storm ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Storm carry a 169-point ELO rating advantage (1743 vs 1574). Recent form favours Storm with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Storm by 1.4 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.48
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.7%
Line / Spread
Storm -6.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.7%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W W W W W | 22.8 |
Roosters | W W W L L | 31.2 |
Avg Conceded
14.8
Storm
18.4
Roosters
Avg Margin
8.0
Storm
12.8
Roosters
Run Metres
1606
Storm
1473
Roosters
Line Breaks
3.2
Storm
3.8
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours StormTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Storm hold a 12-point edge: 9W–4L (69%) vs Roosters's 8W–6L (57%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Storm predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +1.4
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