Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.8 but the actual margin was 24 points. Sharks led 18–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 14 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sharks's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Sharks have a 55% win rate under this referee. Sharks's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sharks
73%
Knights
27%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Knights. The model sees Sharks ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Sharks carry a 273-point ELO rating advantage (1550 vs 1276). Recent form favours Sharks with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Knights. The margin model predicts Sharks by 9.8 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.12
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.6%
Line / Spread
Sharks -16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-18.6%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | W W W W L | 29.0 |
Knights | L L L L L | 12.2 |
Avg Conceded
17.2
Sharks
39.2
Knights
Avg Margin
11.8
Sharks
-27.0
Knights
Run Metres
1755
Sharks
1440
Knights
Line Breaks
4.8
Sharks
4.0
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Sharks hold a 8-point edge: 26W–21L (55%) vs Knights's 16W–18L (47%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Sharks predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +9.8
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