# Sharks v Knights — NRL Round 26 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 40 – 16 Knights

_Sharks sink their teeth into Knights._

Half time: 18 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 73% / Knights 27% · Sharks Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 31 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Addin Fonua-Blake (25'), Ronaldo Mulitalo (31' Tipped ⚡), Siosifa Talakai (40'), Ronaldo Mulitalo (43' Tipped ⚡), Mawene Hiroti (61' Tipped ⚡), Ronaldo Mulitalo (71' Tipped ⚡), Braden Uele (79') · Knights: Fletcher Hunt (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Greg Marzhew (16' Tipped ⚡), Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 73% | Won |
| Knights | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.8 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 26 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sharks 40–16 Knights in NRL Round 26 at Sharks Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seven line breaks to three. That's the number that explains a 40-16 scoreline, and it belongs to the Sharks, who ran out winners at home over the Knights.

The Knights actually started the better side. Fletcher Hunt scored inside four minutes and Greg Marzhew added another by the 16th, and at 0-10 the Knights looked like they might make a match of the form guide that had Sharks rated 1550 to their 1276. It didn't hold. Addin Fonua-Blake got the Sharks on the board in the 25th, Ronaldo Mulitalo levelled it at 30, and by the time Siosifa Talakai crossed just before the break it was 16-10. Mulitalo's second try, right on the stroke of half-time, made it 22-10 and turned the contest on its head. Sharks led 18-10 at the interval and never looked back.

Mulitalo finished with three, and that hat trick is really the story of the second half. He added a third in the 71st minute to push the margin past twenty, and from there it was just about how much daylight the Sharks wanted. Mawene Hiroti and Braden Uele both crossed either side of an Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana try for the Knights, who never stopped scoring but never threatened to close the gap either.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Sharks ran for 1,629 metres to the Knights' 1,404, and did it off 52% possession with an 80% completion rate. That's a side that held the ball and did something with it. The line break count, 7 to 3, is where the game was actually decided: Sharks turned territory into tries, Knights turned it into tackles.

Oddly enough, the Knights were the tidier side by some measures. They completed at just 73% to the Sharks' 80% yet made fewer errors, 10 to 11, and their effective tackle percentage of 87.9% beat the Sharks' 85.2%. Offloads went their way too, 13 to 10. None of it mattered much when the line was actually under threat. Discipline and completion rate only count for so much if you can't stop the opposition getting through you seven times.

The form lines told this story before kick-off. Sharks arrived on four wins from five, averaging 29 points and conceding 17.2. The Knights were 0 from 5, averaging 12.2 scored and 39.2 conceded, an average margin of minus 27. The halves rating gap, 1253 to 1026, was always going to be hard for Newcastle to bridge, and so it proved.

Alphr's model had Sharks at 73% to win, which held up fine. The margin was the miss: 9.8 points predicted, 24 delivered, though the Sharks did cover the 16.5-point line. Call it a correct result with a wrong shape. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 18 | 22 | 40 |
| Knights | 10 | 6 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| **1,629** | Run metres | 1,404 |
| 525 | Post-contact metres | **526** |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 37 | Tackle breaks | **38** |
| 10 | Offloads | **13** |
| 85.2% | Effective tackle % | **87.9%** |
| 38 | Missed tackles | **37** |
| 11 | Errors | **10** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 487 | Kick metres | **535** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.8 but the actual margin was 24 points. Sharks led 18–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 6/16 on this match. Sharks covered the 16.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 14 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sharks's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Sharks have a 56% win rate under this referee. Sharks's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 16' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 25' Try — Addin Fonua-Blake (Sharks) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 30' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 10-10 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 39' Try — Siosifa Talakai (Sharks) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 42' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 61' Try — Mawene Hiroti (Sharks) — 28-10 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 71' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 32-10 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 77' Try — Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana (Knights) — 34-14 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 79' Try — Braden Uele (Sharks) — 38-16 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.12 (edge -18.6%) — model probability 73.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -16.5 @ $1.91 (edge -18.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.7%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 10 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 73% to see off Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 273 ELO points clear, 1550 to 1276. Form leans Sharks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Knights.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Sharks by 9.8, with the two sides combining for about 44. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sharks have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 20-18 in 2026 Round 20.

Sharks are 11-2 at home this year. Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Sharks 6th against Knights 16th.

Sharks come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 7 · Knights 3 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 20-18 |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks at home | 11-2 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 6th · Knights 16th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Knights 0% |
| Rest gap | Sharks 14d · Knights 7d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 28W–22L | 56% |
| Knights | 18W–18L | 50% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Sharks hold a 6-point edge: 28W–22L (56%) vs Knights's 18W–18L (50%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 29.0pts | Avg Score | 12.2pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 39.2pts |
| 11.8pts | Avg Margin | -27.0pts |
| 1755.0m | Run Metres | 1439.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 337.6 | Tackles | 374.2 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 14.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 4W–1L | 29.0 |
| Knights | 0W–5L | 12.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Sharks | 20 – 18 | Knights |
| 2025 | R7 | Knights | 14 – 34 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R24 | Sharks | 19 – 18 | Knights |
| 2023 | R26 | Knights | 32 – 6 | Sharks |
| 2023 | R12 | Sharks | 26 – 6 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 14th there (1.95 conceded/game). Key man: Kennedy, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the right edge: NRL's 17th-ranked right edge attack (0.68 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 12th there (1.18 conceded/game). Key man: Schiller, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.86/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.86/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.95/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.95/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.82/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 12th) | 0.68/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 13 | 11 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 185m/g | 189m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 87.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 47 | 31 · 47 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 742m/g | 774m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.8/g | 22.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.7% | 74.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 16 | 9 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 525m/g | 510m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 91% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Props 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.43) +2%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Centres 0.77/g (lg 0.69) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sharks Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 8 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 3/9g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/6g | 5/6g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.65 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Mawene Hiroti | CE | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 61' |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 10 in 9g | 10/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 48% | — | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 11 in 21g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·2) | 5/8g | 5/8g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' 43' 71' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 7 in 22g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/6g | 5/9g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 7 in 22g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/6g | 6/9g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/16g | 2/9g | 22% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Billy Burns | 2R | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 1/8g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Jesse Colquhoun | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Hohepa Puru | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/9g | 14% | — | 🏉 40' |
| 16 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/7g | 8% | — | 🏉 79' |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dane Gagai | FB | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/20g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 10 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/6g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | James Schiller | Replacement | 8 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 32% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Fletcher Hunt | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| 6 | Jake Arthur | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | 5/8 | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Frizell | LK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/23g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | HK | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | INT | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 77' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1550 · Knights 1276 · ELO difference: 273 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1019 (best 1231) | 1050 (best 1225) | Knights +31 |
| Backs | 1156 (best 1200) | 1042 (best 1091) | Sharks +114 |
| Halves | 1253 (best 1253) | 1026 (best 1026) | Sharks +227 |
| Hooker | 1102 | 1097 | Sharks +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sharks |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Sharks predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)